We shall see.
So then... it is done. Let's go back a little. You were saying you want an Egypt that will not stand-by and watch Israel push the Palestinians around.
If you were the next ruler of Egypt... what does that mean the next time the Israelis and Palestinians are rocking and rolling all over the Gaza Strip. What would your response be?
I like the question.
If I was the democratically elected leader of a free Egypt, my top priority would be Egyptians, not Israelis or Palestinians. My main focus would be reducing poverty and breaking down the barriers which prevent upward mobility. I would immediately start legal proceedings to freeze and seize the ill gotten assets of Egyptians who benefited from corruption and thievery which flourished during Mubarak's era. I would start a truth and reconciliation process to heal the many open wounds resulting from 30+ years of oppression and injustice. Tell the truth, you get amnesty from criminal prosecution. Lie or keep silent and you'd be punished to the full extent of the law.
A war with Israel or anyone else would not improve the lives of Egyptians. Instead it would result in an unacceptable level of suffering and would be unlikely to succeed. I would speak out against Israel, but maintain a passive/defensive military posture. I would try to be a good neighbor and respect the peace agreement while Israel does the same. I would encourage Egyptians to welcome all tourists from all countries including Israel. I would take all measures possible to ensure the safety and security of all tourists, including Israelis.
As per the peace agreement, Egypt cannot deploy more than a minimal number of soldiers and police in the Sinai. However I would immediately open the gates of Gaza to the free flow of humanitarian aid and encourage trade. It would be political suicide for any Egyptian leader to continue to assist Israeli crimes against humanity in Gaza like Mubarak did. I would lift restrictions on Gazans traveling to or through Egypt. Gazans would be treated like any other foreigner entering Egypt.
I am a non-violent humanist. I am against war, even covert proxy ones. I would continue to strictly enforce the arms embargo with Gaza and make legitimate efforts to end the arms smuggling into Gaza, motivated by an interest in peace and stability. I would not want a Palestinian uprising next door. I would respect Egypt's peace agreement with Israel. If the Israeli's were unhappy that Gaza was getting humanitarian aid and trade through Egypt, then as occupiers of Gaza, Israel has the right to seize control of Gaza's side of the border and restrict aid, goods and services as they see fit. The blood would be on their hands, not mine. I'd complain and try to embarrass Israel into ending their war crimes and crimes against humanity, but that's about it.
At some point though a free Egypt would have to deal with Israeli war crimes and crimes. I would consider punitive economic/diplomatic sanctions and restricting trade. A real SOB, might covertly assist arms smuggling operations in a way that could not be traced back conclusively as overt Egyptian support for Gaza militants. However, I'm not a militant SOB. As a non-violent humanist, I would continue to crack down on arms smuggling, even if I agreed with the Palestinian cause. That's me personally. I doubt the future democratically elected leader of Egypt would be as squeamish as I would be regarding arms smuggling or fighting a covert proxy war. There is a chance that Egypt might eventually join the proxy war against Israel at some point in the future.
Anyway those aren't near term threats. IMO, Israel still has lots of time to finish the wall they are building along Egypt's border, regardless of who wins the next election. Even if the Muslim Brotherhood won a majority, I doubt they would squander such an opportunity to turn Egypt into a model Theocracy in order to start a war with Israel. It would still be years before even a Muslim Brotherhood led theocracy could shift its main focus from changing the political landscape inside Egypt to its relationship with Israel. Yes they would be very vocal and might even saber rattle a little, but I doubt even they would take action against Israel without being extremely confident of success. I'd assume that every weapon system Egypt owns which originates from the US could be remotely disabled by Israel. Taking on Israel would require getting rid of every American system and building up a brand new military capability almost from scratch.
As you can see, other than reducing the disease and malnutrition resulting from Israel's cruel humanitarian aid blockade, I don't predict much to change in Gaza as a result of a free Egypt.
The greatest immediate threat to Israel from this revolt would have been if the army cracked down on the protesters as Israel wanted. Even if the military won round one, they'd eventually get their butts kicked as front line soldiers switched sides. Egypt could have ended up in a 1980's Lebanon civil war anarchy scenario where competing factions supported by outside interests were busy fighting each other as arms flowed freely into Egypt and Gaza. Its a good thing for Israel that their calls to support Mubarak went unheeded. I sincerely believe the current situation is the best possible outcome for Israel's immediate security. The status quo was unsustainable. Now it will be years before Israel has to worry about a threat from Egypt.
In the long term, Egypt could be a serious threat to Israel's security, depending on the situation in Israel and the Occupied Territories. Egypt by itself is no serious threat to Israel. Egyptians have more in common with Turkey, than Iran. If Israel continues its ethnic cleansing, war crimes and crimes against humanity, I'd expect Egypt to coordinate their actions with other Arab/Muslim nations, and possibly take a leading role.
The real threat to Israel will come when Saudis eventually overthrow their dictator. Saudis are far crazier than the Iranians and they will have money and power.
