Our cooling world

Zipperfish

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Apr 12, 2013
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What happens if there is a war?

For Zipperfish:

Wavelength dependence of solar irradiance enhancement during X-class flares and its influence on the upper atmosphere | OpenSky - Providing free and open access to the scholarship of UCAR, NCAR, and the UCP

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/shindell_03/

To understand the underlying physical mechanisms by which solar variability affects climate, as well as to assess the relative strengths of solar variability versus greenhouse gases, requires computer models of Earth's climate system. However, most climate models have concentrated on the lower atmosphere, and have not included the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere. We have now included both realistic solar irradiance and ozone changes in a version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model which includes a representation of the complete stratosphere.

Good stuff, thanks!
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
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RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
Earth's Magnetic Field Is Weakening 10 Times Faster Now

50% Drop in the last century? Ouch.

Earth's Magnetic Shield
When the sun is very active and there is a lot of solar wind, there is less cosmic radiation reaching earth, fewer low elevation clouds are formed, and the earth warms. This relationship itself can account for most of the warming in the twentieth century. As we start the 21st century, the reverse is happening. The sun has been extraordinarily quiet and scientists have found the solar winds have declined to the lowest levels ever measured. This should cause the earth to start cooling, which it did starting in 2007.

I was reading last night that geologists examining lava beds in south western USA stated that they had examined lava that indicated a ten degree shift in the magnetic field over a period of 6 weeks.
 

waldo

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Oct 19, 2009
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It must make you really sad that each time you forward some 'fact', it is refuted and shut down with multiple sources... Not to say I told you so, but this is what comes of buying into faux science

what's been refuted and shut down with multiple sources. Name it/them... sure you can! Can you present any one thing, in particular :mrgreen:
 

Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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When the sun is very active and there is a lot of solar wind, there is less cosmic radiation reaching earth, fewer low elevation clouds are formed, and the earth warms.



So then, decreasing solar wind should make more low level clouds and the earth should cool. Has the Earth been cooling since 1991-1992? Nope.



The sun has been extraordinarily quiet and scientists have found the solar winds have declined to the lowest levels ever measured. This should cause the earth to start cooling, which it did starting in 2007.

Why 2007, hmm looks like that was the most recent warmest temperature for NASA. That's not a very good reason to pick 2007. The solar wind has been declining since long before 2007, at least 1991-1992. For the cherry pickers:
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Low Earth Orbit


So then, decreasing solar wind should make more low level clouds and the earth should cool. Has the Earth been cooling since 1991-1992? Nope.





Why 2007, hmm looks like that was the most recent warmest temperature for NASA. That's not a very good reason to pick 2007. The solar wind has been declining since long before 2007, at least 1991-1992. For the cherry pickers:

By any chance did you notice the name of that website? I'm sorry you took the bait left for dywaldo.
 

Zipperfish

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Yeah, there's been the "pause" since 1998, but no cooling. 2014 looks like it'll be a top five year, maybe even a top 3 year, over the last 150 or so. That will play hell with the cherry pickers.
 

waldo

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Oct 19, 2009
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By any chance did you notice the name of that website? I'm sorry you took the bait left for dywaldo.

petrocd... is this you once again scrambling to disassociate yourself from a website quotation you put forward? I called you on this tactic of yours a short while back! And now you're going to do it again?
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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waldo

House Member
Oct 19, 2009
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So then, decreasing solar wind should make more low level clouds and the earth should cool. Has the Earth been cooling since 1991-1992? Nope.



Why 2007, hmm looks like that was the most recent warmest temperature for NASA. That's not a very good reason to pick 2007. The solar wind has been declining since long before 2007, at least 1991-1992.
By any chance did you notice the name of that website? I'm sorry you took the bait left for dywaldo.
petrocd... is this you once again scrambling to disassociate yourself from a website quotation you put forward? I called you on this tactic of yours a short while back! And now you're going to do it again?

as I mentioned, member petrocd tried the same thing a short while back on another subject/quoted reference he had made... he made a mad scramble effort to attempt to dissociate himself from it. And now he does it again!
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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My conclusion

It's obvious two drivers have been warming the planet and altering weather patterns. One is diminishing. How will that alter the effects of the other?

as I mentioned, member petrocd tried the same thing a short while back on another subject/quoted reference he had made... he made a mad scramble effort to attempt to dissociate himself from it. And now he does it again!

Did somebody give you a speaking role?


Back to reality....

The solar induced changes in the lower atmosphere affect surface features such as temperature and pressure. The model's response agrees with observations, including the long record of geopotential height variations (a function of temperature throughout the lower atmosphere), implying that these observed 10-12 year oscillations are likely driven, at least partially, by solar variability.

It is intriguing to extrapolate these results to longer term solar irradiance changes, which are roughly two to three times larger than solar cycle variations. The pattern of modeled surface temperature changes induced by solar variability is well correlated with observed global warming over the first half of the 20th century, but not with the more rapid warming seen over the past three decades. The latter more closely resembles modeled warming induced by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This suggests that although solar variability does impact surface climate indirectly, it was probably not responsible for most of the rapid global warming seen over the past three decades.

Reference
Shindell, D.T., D. Rind, N. Balachandran, J. Lean, and P. Lonergan 1999. Solar cycle variability, ozone and climate. Science 284, 305-308.
 

waldo

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Oct 19, 2009
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My conclusion

It's obvious two drivers have been warming the planet and altering weather patterns. One is diminishing. How will that alter the effects of the other?

why so vague! Which 2 drivers and which one is diminishing (and why)?

Did somebody give you a speaking role?

yup, the owner(s)/operator(s) of this forum..... or are you calling the shots around here? :mrgreen:
 

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
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By any chance did you notice the name of that website? I'm sorry you took the bait left for dywaldo.

Yes, I did more than just notice the name, I read up on who they are, and other projects they're involved in. It's the equivalent of a creationist group running a website called evolutionclassroom.info. They peddle the same crap you do. That's some great bait! :lol:

The pattern of modeled surface temperature changes induced by solar variability is well correlated with observed global warming over the first half of the 20th century, but not with the more rapid warming seen over the past three decades. The latter more closely resembles modeled warming induced by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This suggests that although solar variability does impact surface climate indirectly, it was probably not responsible for most of the rapid global warming seen over the past three decades.

Reference
Shindell, D.T., D. Rind, N. Balachandran, J. Lean, and P. Lonergan 1999. Solar cycle variability, ozone and climate. Science 284, 305-308.

Hmm, we finally agree on something.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Now we see at what rate C02 carries climate change forward and how much from an active sun crawling out of extreme long term inactivity.

Hurry up and wait. We'll find out after the next solar max.
 

waldo

House Member
Oct 19, 2009
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Yes, I did more than just notice the name, I read up on who they are, and other projects they're involved in. It's the equivalent of a creationist group running a website called evolutionclassroom.info. They peddle the same crap you do. That's some great bait! :lol:

his bait... bit him, big-time!


Hmm, we finally agree on something.

I expect he didn't read his full quotation and missed this last paragraph zinger!

"The pattern of modeled surface temperature changes induced by solar variability is well correlated with observed global warming over the first half of the 20th century, but not with the more rapid warming seen over the past three decades. The latter more closely resembles modeled warming induced by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This suggests that although solar variability does impact surface climate indirectly, it was probably not responsible for most of the rapid global warming seen over the past three decades."
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
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his bait... bit him, big-time!




I expect he didn't read his full quotation and missed this last paragraph zinger!
"The pattern of modeled surface temperature changes induced by solar variability is well correlated with observed global warming over the first half of the 20th century, but not with the more rapid warming seen over the past three decades. The latter more closely resembles modeled warming induced by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This suggests that although solar variability does impact surface climate indirectly, it was probably not responsible for most of the rapid global warming seen over the past three decades."

""This suggests that although solar variability does impact surface climate indirectly, ""

This has got to be the stupidest thing I've ever seen on paper. To suggest indirect impact on earths surface climate rests on the insane idea of an unknown but more direct impact. This is not science it's the bottom of a the rotten disgracefull bull sh it of thieves and liars.
 

taxslave

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 25, 2008
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I've already addressed it multiple times... it has no authority and no association to actual climate negotiations. Now... if you'd like to champion that strawman, please do so... step forward and give it legitimacy, speak to it's authority, it's associations, it's relevance! Champion that strawman you so want to give significance to.

Talk about denial.