How the GW myth is perpetuated

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
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RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
I've never engaged in any derivatives, applied differentiation, implicit differentiations, max/min, or any goddam anti-derivatives crap.

Thanks for the introduction.

And theyn say numerology died in the i\enlightenment. fu ckin ha

They should read the lumps on their heads.
 

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
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I've never calculated a p-value before.

Thanks for the introduction.

Fixed it for you. You're welcome.

And DB, it's probability not numerology. As in, the probability that you understand why statistics are necessary is astonishingly small. The devil is in the details. No doubt about that!
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
41,035
201
63
RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
Fixed it for you. You're welcome.

And DB, it's probability not numerology. As in, the probability that you understand why statistics are necessary is astonishingly small. The devil is in the details. No doubt about that!

But you yourself lectured about the power of the small to affect the whole. I am astonishing nevertheless.
 

Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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But you yourself lectured about the power of the small to affect the whole.

There is no but...of course small things can affect the whole. Ignorance can spread, that's a historical fact. I don't think that was ever in doubt Beav. ;)
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
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A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
There is no but...of course small things can affect the whole. Ignorance can spread, that's a historical fact. I don't think that was ever in doubt Beav. ;)

In the case of AGW, the ignorance metric can only be assessed on an after the fact basis.

Considering that 'the debate was over' some time ago, I wouldn't be so fast to make implications of exactly who is being ignorant
 

Tonington

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 27, 2006
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You did?

p value is only as good as the number of samples allow.

No it isn't. The P-value is only as "good" as the variability in your samples allows. Small variability and small sample size can be fine. Now we're coming back around to statistical power, and the conversation about the so-called pause. High variability year to year, and low numbers of samples. Not a "good" p-value.

So what exactly do you say in a board room, if you're not showing them an objective analysis of the data you collected?

In the case of AGW, the ignorance metric can only be assessed on an after the fact basis.

That's ignorant. We can clearly assess the things people say, and if they aren't in accord with facts at hand, we don't have to wait until after the fact. With regards to statistics, I don't have to wait to know that Beav is ignorant on the topic of statistics. Numerology places special significance on numbers, derived from religious text, mysticism and superstition. Statistics is probability based, and based on empirical study of populations and the differences between them.

Case closed. Comparing the two is ignorant.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
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A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
No it isn't. The P-value is only as "good" as the variability in your samples allows. Small variability and small sample size can be fine. Now we're coming back around to statistical power, and the conversation about the so-called pause. High variability year to year, and low numbers of samples. Not a "good" p-value.

Small sample size in the case of the Earth's climate experience simply will not cut the mustard.

Add to this the various models that form the basis of what the general equation will look like and the endeavor becomes even more erroneous

So what exactly do you say in a board room, if you're not showing them an objective analysis of the data you collected?

You say; 'Based on this model in addition to this set of assumptions....'


That's ignorant. We can clearly assess the things people say, and if they aren't in accord with facts at hand, we don't have to wait until after the fact. With regards to statistics, I don't have to wait to know that Beav is ignorant on the topic of statistics. Numerology places special significance on numbers, derived from religious text, mysticism and superstition. Statistics is probability based, and based on empirical study of populations and the differences between them.

No, the comment is reasonable and thoughtful.

'The facts', as you refer to them are presently generating multiple results... Either the equation that 'the facts' are being used in are flawed or 'the facts' are indeed to be questioned.

Case closed. Comparing the two is ignorant.

Hilarious.... That is the exact logic that the truthers have been employing in order to initiate a program of bank transfers to heal Gaia