Canadian recession will go beyond 1st half of 2015
'Let's not fool ourselves into thinking this is a mild recession,' writes Louis-Philippe Rochon
With news of economic turmoil in China and other emerging economies, repercussions for Canada will be significant. Expect the recession to continue beyond the second quarter of 2015.
This raises questions about the supposed recovery in the second half of 2015. Currently, Canada is in recession. Most pundits are predicting that it is a mild recession, and that Canada will fully recover in the third and fourth quarters of 2015. But those predictions are surely wrong and are based on faulty economic logic.
The macroeconomics are just not adding up for a recovery in the third quarter of this year.
For the record, this is not a mild recession. Some pundits say it is, although the economic logic of such a statement is grotesquely flawed. They claim labour markets are not showing signs of a recession.
This is wrong. We know that large parts of manufacturing are badly reeling, in addition to the oil sector. Labour market participation is falling, leading to false readings with respect to the unemployment rate. Once you factor in the fact that thousands of Canadians withdrew from the labour market, you end up with a much higher unemployment rate.
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http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/man...ion-will-go-beyond-1st-half-of-2015-1.3201171