With Blair's buddy, Chow and Liberal man running against him, he could win with less than 40% of the vote.......
There are always about a billion people running in the mayoral race. I think that the "anybody but Ford" movement will be more than strong enough for people to rally around a reasonable alternative rather than split the vote 20 ways. Also, Ford's support has shrunk quite a bit. There will be more than a few fiscal conservatives in the race to take away any support for Rob other than the diehard people who bought into his cult of personality.
The best thing Ford can do is get through the next 10 months without doing anything stupid and hopefully that will convince folks to vote for him, if he is the best candidate. I think more serious that what he's actually done is putting himself in a position that people question him?
That is what makes me question him so much right now. Anyone with half a brain knows that he would be much better off if he had taken a leave.
He can't get into trouble if he simply isn't around, and if he could show people that he made a good faith effort to get himself better, his "there is nothing I can do about the past, I'm moving on" line would work a hell of a lot better. Nobody plays the underdog better than Rob Ford. If he had gone away for a while, got help, and came back visibly healthier, the election would be a tap in for him.
The fact that he is currently not acting in his own best interests or the best interests of the city is scary. It indicates a man who has gone far off the deep end.