After this election which Pollsters will get the Stepping on your own Richard Award.
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
Is U.S. polling guru Nate Silver going to have egg on his face? - The Globe and Mail
Amid frantic last-ditch campaign stops, celebrity endorsements and get-out-the-vote efforts, the final moments of the U.S. election campaign have also been marked by confident predictions by political watchers.
At the forefront of forecasts for a win by President Barack Obama is Nate Silver, the political polling guru and blogger for The New York Times. Mr. Silver’s latest poll ****ysis gives Mr. Obama an audacious 91.6 per cent chance of securing a second term.
Mr. Obama was leading by an average of 1.6 percentage points in 12 national polls released on Monday, as Mr. Silver outlined on his blog. RealClearPolitics, a political news and polling data aggregator, has Mr. Obama ahead by 0.7 percentage points in its poll averages.
Mr. Silver’s aggressive forecast for Mr. Obama’s chance of winning – which has steadily edged upward from a recent low of 61.1 per cent on Oct. 12 – has made him a lightning rod for controversy.
A Politico article last week suggested Mr. Silver “could be a one-term celebrity” if he is wrong and Mr. Romney wins. Mr. Silver, a statistician, correctly predicted the winner of 49 out of the 50 states in the 2008 election.
MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough also attacked Mr. Silver’s forecast for an Obama victory, calling him “a joke”.
“Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue [that] they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops, and microphones for the next 10 days, because they’re jokes," Mr. Scarborough said last week.