Our cooling world

[Tonington]

So, if we use Al Gore's sick, twisted logic, pretty soon all the coasts will be covered with ice.

No, not quite. Using Al Gore's logic-he shows the entire instrument record-we can see that over short time spans, the signal is not enough to overtake the noise.

All experiments are models. You have an output (global mean temperature) and that is a function of controlled and uncontrolled variables. In just ten years, that is not even a full solar cycle, and only a few cycles of ENSO. Those are uncontrolled variables in the experiment, along with many others. The controlled variables would be greenhouse gas increases, and land use changes, to name a couple. The error term in the model, uncontrolled variables, is larger than the signal portion-the controlled variables. The 30 year period used to define climate is chosen for a reason. Short term noise dwarfs any trends in the climate.

So no. Al Gore's logic (he is not the scientist, he quotes their work) would not allow you to say that the coast will soon be covered by ice. That is an unrefined argument made by ignorant folk, and even some informed (you should question their motives as scrupulously as Al Gore's).

:roll:

 

[Walter]

NOAA: Summer Temperature Below Average for U.S.

September 10, 2009
The average June-August 2009 summer temperature for the contiguous United States was below average – the 34th coolest on record, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. August was also below the long-term average. The analysis is based on records dating back to 1895.

 

[YukonJack]

Tonington, if you choose to believe in Al Gore, it is your choice.

I promise that I will be far more civil respecting your views than you are respecting mine.

So, I will NOT call you a flat-Earther. I will not call you an extremist. I will not call you a left-wing loonie. I will not call you a truth-denier.

All of the above and, sadly, more, and more offensive, are the exclusive purview of the oh, so tolerant and loving left-wing.

 

[Tonington]

Tonington, if you choose to believe in Al Gore, it is your choice.

I don't listen to Gore. I have access to journals where the science he quotes comes from. In fact the only people who seem to really talk about what Gore says are his detractors.

I promise that I will be far more civil respecting your views than you are respecting mine.

I just explained how you're wrong about using Gore's logic and what it would lead you to conclude. Nothing uncivil, and I have no idea what your views actually are.

So, I will NOT call you a flat-Earther. I will not call you an extremist. I will not call you a left-wing loonie. I will not call you a truth-denier.

That's great. What did I call you that you feel the need to tell me what you won't call me?

All of the above and, sadly, more, and more offensive, are the exclusive purview of the oh, so tolerant and loving left-wing.

Now that is Bull$hit. You're blinded by your own prejudices if you think only left-wing folk make offensive comments. :roll:

 

[AnnaG]

NOAA: Summer Temperature Below Average for U.S.

September 10, 2009
The average June-August 2009 summer temperature for the contiguous United States was below average – the 34th coolest on record, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. August was also below the long-term average. The analysis is based on records dating back to 1895.

We usually only get 1 heat wave that lasts about a week long here. This summer we had 3 and for at least a week each. April and May's weathers had swapped for the second time in 2 years. June's and July's weathers had swapped, also. No, that isn't regular.
I'm glad the globe is cooling now as it isn't so hot here these days, but I think it might have something to do with autumn settling in.

 

[AnnaG]

So if heat is displaced by oxygen where does it go?

It goes to the bathroom.

 

[AnnaG]

So it's just Al Gore behind all this like some Wizard of Oz?

lol.

 

[YukonJack]

Tonington, if you believe n the Global Warming Nonsense, you are an Al Gore Accolyte.

 

[AnnaG]

No, not quite. Using Al Gore's logic-he shows the entire instrument record-we can see that over short time spans, the signal is not enough to overtake the noise.

All experiments are models. You have an output (global mean temperature) and that is a function of controlled and uncontrolled variables. In just ten years, that is not even a full solar cycle, and only a few cycles of ENSO. Those are uncontrolled variables in the experiment, along with many others. The controlled variables would be greenhouse gas increases, and land use changes, to name a couple. The error term in the model, uncontrolled variables, is larger than the signal portion-the controlled variables. The 30 year period used to define climate is chosen for a reason. Short term noise dwarfs any trends in the climate.

So no. Al Gore's logic (he is not the scientist, he quotes their work)

...(cherrypicks is more like it)....

would not allow you to say that the coast will soon be covered by ice. That is an unrefined argument made by ignorant folk, and even some informed (you should question their motives as scrupulously as Al Gore's).

:roll:

Yeah. There are better sources for info than that weird SOB.

 

[AnnaG]

Tonington, if you believe n the Global Warming Nonsense, you are an Al Gore Accolyte.

I don't believe in "the Global Warming Nonsense" either. I know what I see and almost everything I saw so far makes me go past "belief" to certainty. And it's a certainty based on FACT, not emotional preferences and Gore's opinions.

 

[#juan]

Tonington, if you believe n the Global Warming Nonsense, you are an Al Gore Accolyte.

There can be no doubt that there is global warming. A quick glance at Canada's North should give you a hint. There is far more proof out there but you have to open your eyes. Al Gore pointed out global warming but he freely admits he is no scientist.
And the word is acolyte......:roll:

 

[TenPenny]

Al Gore may well have pointed out Global Warming, but he certainly wasn't the first person to raise the issue of climate change.

Why some people focus on him, as if he is the inventor of the concept, I don't know. I tend to dismiss 'celbrity' spokespeople for any cause, and look instead to the people who are doing the research.

 

[#juan]

Al Gore may well have pointed out Global Warming, but he certainly wasn't the first person to raise the issue of climate change.

Certainly not. Linus Pauling was over ninety years old when he said this in 1990:

I am also opposed to the continued use of fossil fuels, coal and petroleum, which are burned to provide energy….[in part because] the liberation of heat from fossil-fuel power plants…serves to destroy the thermal balance of the earth, as determined by radiation from the sun and loss of energy by radiation from the earth.

Gore was probably an opportunist and all kinds of a cad but he got people's attention.

 

[AnnaG]

Al Gore may well have pointed out Global Warming, but he certainly wasn't the first person to raise the issue of climate change.

He didn't and you're right, he wasn't.

Why some people focus on him, as if he is the inventor of the concept, I don't know. I tend to dismiss 'celbrity' spokespeople for any cause, and look instead to the people who are doing the research.

Because he's a bigmouth and was in US federal politics.

 

[Tonington]

Tonington, if you believe n the Global Warming Nonsense, you are an Al Gore Accolyte.

That's about the response I expected. You're another fine example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

It's amazing how many people think they somehow can know better than people who are trained in the subject. I don't see many people bringing their cars to accountants to have their transmission rebuilt. I don't see people going to mechanics to get root canals. But because this issue has been divided amongst political parties for so long, people can convince themselves that they see the issue clearly, even more clearly than the folks who put in years of work to even have a nuanced understanding.

YukonJack, ignorance is bliss, clearly in your case.

 

[Walter]

Both poles expanding ice at the same time.

 

[petros]

What type of ice? Nilas? New? Young? First year? Old ice? Full historical thickness? What is the current salinity (TDS)? pH? Gases?

All normal?

 

[AnnaG]

Both poles expanding ice at the same time.

How thick is it? How thick is it in comparison to 5 decades ago? How thick is it in comparison to 2 decades ago. A block of ice a foot square and a millimeter thick only LOOKS bigger than a 6" cube of ice.

 

[Walter]

October 6, 2009

Antarctic Ice Melt at Lowest Levels in Satellite Era

Where are the headlines? Where are the press releases? Where is all the attention?
The ice melt across during the Antarctic summer (October-January) of 2008-2009 was the lowest ever recorded in the satellite history.
Such was the finding reported last week by Marco Tedesco and Andrew Monaghan in the journal Geophysical Research Letters:

A 30-year minimum Antarctic snowmelt record occurred during austral summer 2008–2009 according to spaceborne microwave observations for 1980–2009. Strong positive phases of both the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) were recorded during the months leading up to and including the 2008–2009 melt season.
​

Figure 1. Standardized values of the Antarctic snow melt index (October-January) from 1980-2009 (adapted from Tedesco and Monaghan, 2009).
The silence surrounding this publication was deafening.

 

[Walter]

Study: model in good agreement with satellite temperature data – suggest cooling

20 10 2009

TREND ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA
Craig Loehle
National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc.
Reprint available from NCASI (PDF)​

Abstract
Global satellite data is analyzed for temperature trends for the period January 1979 through June 2009. Beginning and ending segments show a cooling trend, while the middle segment evinces a warming trend. The past 12 to 13 years show cooling using both satellite data sets, with lower confidence limits that do not exclude a negative trend until 16 to 22 years. It is shown that several published studies have predicted cooling in this time frame. One of these models is extrapolated from its 2000 calibration end date and shows a good match to the satellite data, with a projection of continued cooling for several more decades.
Figure 6. Linear plus period model from Klyashtorin and Lyubushin (2003) overlaid on satellite data after intercept shift. Dotted line is model extrapolation post-2000 calibration period end. a) UAH. b) RSS.
Figure 6a - UAH data plus model


Figure 6b - RSS data plus model

CONCLUSIONS
Analysis of the satellite data shows a statistically significant cooling trend for the past 12 to 13 years, with it not being possible to reject a flat trend (0 slope) for between 16 and 23 years. This is a length of time at which disagreement with climate models can no longer be attributed to simple LTP. On the other hand, studies cited herein have documented a 50–70 year cycle of climate oscillations overlaid on a simple linear warming trend since the mid-1800s and have used this model to forecast cooling beginning between 2001 and 2010, a prediction that seems to be upheld by the satellite and ocean heat content data. Other studies made this same prediction of transition to cooling based on solar activity indices or from ocean circulation regime changes. In contrast, the climate models predict the recent flat to cooling trend only as a rare stochastic event. The linear warming trend in these models that is obtained by subtracting the 60–70 yr cycle, while unexplained at present, is clearly inconsistent with climate model predictions because it begins too soon (before greenhouse gases were elevated) and does not accelerate as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate. This model and the empirical evidence for recent cooling thus provide a challenge to
climate model accuracy