How the GW myth is perpetuated

Zipperfish

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Apr 12, 2013
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Yeah, that's a good question. Not the same data sets, but statistically there is no difference despite the fact that they are very different. GISS uses a base period 1951-1980. NOAA uses a base period 1981-2010. GISS uses 2° x 2° gridded data (so globally that's a sample space of 360 x 180). NOAA uses 5° x 5° gridded data (so globally that's a sample space of 72 x 36).

Completely different datasets. Statistically the same.

The fact that there are different data sets and different statistical methods and yet these independent approaches converge, if anything, is an argument in favour of the temperature record.
 

Walter

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Jan 28, 2007
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Gubmint shills will say what the gubmint wants otherwise the funds dry up.
 

waldo

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Oct 19, 2009
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Gubmint shills will say what the gubmint wants otherwise the funds dry up.

weak Walter, even by your weak standards! By the by Walter, why does the, as you say, "gubmint want it"? :mrgreen: Here I thought the fossil-fuel posse had "gubmint" in its pocket! Wassup Walter?
 

Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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The fact that there are different data sets and different statistical methods and yet these independent approaches converge, if anything, is an argument in favour of the temperature record.

Yes, exactly. Also, let's not forget that the satellites measuring the lower troposphere overlap too, even though they aren't even the same thing as the surface temperature record.

Qualitatively these records may be different, but not quantitatively.
 

Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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Science? In my science if I walked into a board meeting and dropped a chemical map on the table and said " it could be 10 oz tonnes or 12 oz tonnes....ahhhh whatever, close enough" do you think I'd get hired again?

Not sure about the board rooms you walk into, but in ours we don't present anything that hasn't been evaluated statistically. Two doses and thirty fish per group are vaccinated and challenged, plus a mock group. 12 die in the low dose, 10 die in the high dose, and 26 die in the mock vaccinated group. The two doses are pretty close to each other in protection, small difference. Is there a statistical difference in the survival curves? Nope, that's just biological variability. So then if they're not different, you know the smaller dose is as effective as the larger dose. The difference is huge when you evaluate the cost of goods on the product you're developing, and know that you can get an effective dose with half as much antigen in your vaccine. Now one batch from your fermenter can produce twice the amount of vaccine.

There is no statistical difference between NOAA and NASA.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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. The difference is huge when you evaluate the cost of goods on the product you're developing, and know that you can get an effective dose with half as much antigen in your vaccine. Now one batch from your fermenter can produce twice the amount of vaccine.

There is no statistical difference between NOAA and NASA.
Bingo!!! An assay. Developing an ore body into a delivered product is very similar. Before anything goes forward they want to know the cash in, cash out, longevity, and foresight into market stability. If it' s going to take 3-4 years to clear enviro, socio, and logistic barriers and another 2-3 to construct the extraction facilities before seeing a dollar come in there is no room for slop. For a start up a sloppy assay can make or break them. For an established company it is far easier to carrying into developement.

NASA claims this was the 6th warmest Nov. NOAA says 4th. Which is it or do we just say "close enough" and go with 5th?
 

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
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RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
Bingo!!! An assay. Developing an ore body into a delivered product is very similar. Before anything goes forward they want to know the cash in, cash out, longevity, and foresight into market stability. If it' s going to take 3-4 years to clear enviro, socio, and logistic barriers and another 2-3 to construct the extraction facilities before seeing a dollar come in there is no room for slop. For a start up a sloppy assay can make or break them. For an established company it is far easier to carrying into developement.

NASA claims this was the 6th warmest Nov. NOAA says 4th. Which is it or do we just say "close enough" and go with 5th?

Speaking of ore, I have a chunk of that Baffin island iron, it like magnets really likes then, you can file the stuff. I'll post a picture someday.
 

Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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Bingo!!! An assay. Developing an ore body into a delivered product is very similar. Before anything goes forward they want to know the cash in, cash out, longevity, and foresight into market stability. If it' s going to take 3-4 years to clear enviro, socio, and logistic barriers and another 2-3 to construct the extraction facilities before seeing a dollar come in there is no room for slop. For a start up a sloppy assay can make or break them. For an established company it is far easier to carrying into developement.

That's all good, what about the statistics? That's really what we're talking about here. You can't claim to have a validated assay without some criteria based on the statistics. Are 12 and 10 really different, or are they the same thing? If you went out and sampled again, would you get exactly the same answer? The real world is messy and filled with variability, which is why we use statistics to evaluate outcomes, and why I would never present anything to my portfolio committee without vetting how robust the answer is, i.e statistics.

Yes DB, statistics isn't science. It's a tool we use. The house we build is not a hammer. :p

NASA claims this was the 6th warmest Nov. NOAA says 4th. Which is it or do we just say "close enough" and go with 5th?

Well, they only go by their own respective records, so we say they're both correct. Then we take their samples, and do a statistical test for equivalence, and realize that they are not statistically different from one another. We say exactly the same thing as we would say to anyone who says there has been a pause in the temperature record since 1998, 2001, or 2005.

Small point of order, NOAA says it's the 7th warmest November -tied with 2008- on record.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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I've never engaged in any derivatives, applied differentiation, implicit differentiations, max/min, or any goddam anti-derivatives crap.

Thanks for the introduction.