Voters in Canada's most populous province go cold on Conservatives
A senior Conservative deeply involved in the campaign says that as of now, a dozen Ontario legislators or more could easily lose their seats as support for the party in some parliamentary constituencies is set to drop by up to 15 percentage points.
The Conservatives took 73 of the 106 seats in the 2011 election, cementing Harper's first majority. The number of Ontario seats will increase from 106 to 121 this time as the House of Commons expands to 338 seats from 308.
Conservative voters say they are tired of the government after a decade in power and variously cite concerns about the sluggish economy, unhappiness over a scandal in Harper's office as well as increasing antipathy towards the prime minister and his take-no-prisoners political style.
Two senior cabinet members from the province said it was becoming harder to persuade people - including committed supporters - to vote for the party.
Labour Minister Kellie Leitch said the campaign in her Simcoe-Grey constituency north of Toronto was going "outstandingly well" but conceded that for some people, voting Conservative was "not a gut reaction any more".
Treasury Board Minister Tony Clement described the situation in his constituency of Parry Sound-Muskoka, about 200 km north of Toronto, as fluid and volatile and said some voters were genuinely grappling with what to do.
"All leaders have some millstones," he said in an interview, citing "the longevity of government" in Harper's case.
Although Clement did not mention Harper as an issue, others are less reticent. The senior Conservative Party source said campaigners were discovering widespread unhappiness with the prime minister, who critics accuse of being dictatorial.
I'm tired of the games and the mudslinging," said Terry Denbok, 40, a church pastor. Asked about Harper, he replied: "I'm just over him."
Denbok says he will not vote Conservative again and might back the Greens.
Others are mulling a switch to the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau or the NDP of Tom Mulcair.
"I've voted Harper for the last 10 years and I'm one of the guys considering Mulcair. This is insane," said advertising salesman Alf Ens, 58. "And I'm not the only one. I think Harper has pissed off a lot of people."
Ens said he was unhappy that Harper had adopted a strong pro-Israel stance in the Middle East.
"I'm not sure their own people will turn up. There is no enthusiasm for the Conservative campaign," said Ipsos pollster John Wright. "Ontario is in play."
CORRECTED-Voters in Canada's most populous province go cold on Conservatives | Reuters