Strait of Hormuz not Iran's only way to harass the West, experts say | News | National Post
Few intelligence, military and security experts contacted by Reuters either in or outside government, however, believe that is genuinely likely. Instead, they say, Iran’s leaders will be looking for ways to harass enemies and cause disruption while falling short of triggering a massive U.S.-led retaliation.
Possible Iranian gambits could include harrying tanker traffic in the Gulf with fast attack boats, seizing uninhabited Gulf islands claimed by other states, grabbing hostages from passing civilian or military ships, stoking trouble in Sunni Muslim-ruled Arab states with restive Shi’ite Muslim communities and orchestrating attacks on U.S. forces in Afghanistan or elsewhere using militant “proxies” such as Hezbollah.
The risk inherent in all this, however, is that someone on either side miscalculates and triggers a full-blown conflict.
“These scenarios make sense as likely actions falling short of actively blocking the Strait — but they will certainly raise tensions,” says Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island.
“Iran’s goal in raising tensions in the Gulf may be to get other countries to put pressure on the United States to show restraint [and] as a way to create some breathing room for Tehran to maneuver.”
It could add to the growing sense of regional confrontation arising from Iran’s defiance of several U.N. resolutions demanding that it suspend its atomic energy program, seen in the West as a camouflaged bid for nuclear weapons capability, and engage in negotiations with world powers on a solution.
Washington seems keen to stress its resolve and showcase its military strength. This week, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln passed through Hormuz flanked by British and French warships – in open defiance of Tehran’s warning earlier this month that Washington should keep its carriers out of the Gulf.
In reality, naval sources say the move was likely planned months or longer in advance – every time a giant U.S. carrier docks anywhere, dozens of contracts need to be in place for it to be serviced and supplied.
But this time, given the Iranian threat and the heightened tension, the warships’ entry would have been approved at the highest level and deliberately publicized to an unusual degree.
“Both sides are engaged in heavy posturing right now,” said Reva Bhalla, director of strategic intelligence for U.S.-based consultancy Stratfor. “Iran is focused right now on highlighting its deterrence tools in the Persian Gulf … This, of course, increases the risk of miscalculation.”
Whilst some analysts believe the Islamic Republic may already worry it has overreached itself, others worry that pulling back may become increasingly difficult politically.
