This summer may see first ice-free North Pole

Tonington

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What caught my attention was that the OP indicated that "this summer" might see the absence (ice free) North Pole. The OP was submitted in January of 2008.

Get your eyesight checked out, the date on the OP is June 28, 2008.

My only point being that the headline (at the time) was sensational and, in retrospect, incorrect

That that summer may have seen an ice free North Pole was a probabilistic statement. If I say the odds are 50-50 that you roll a 1, or a 2, or a 3 on a fair six sided die, and you roll a 5, the probabilistic statement wasn't wrong.
 

captain morgan

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Get your eyesight checked out, the date on the OP is June 28, 2008.

Well, with this new information, it clearly makes the statement in the OP bang-on.

That that summer may have seen an ice free North Pole was a probabilistic statement. If I say the odds are 50-50 that you roll a 1, or a 2, or a 3 on a fair six sided die, and you roll a 5, the probabilistic statement wasn't wrong.

I like the term coin-toss science better
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
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Nothing of the sort.

From what I saw, the OP link was the same greenie voodoo science that has fallen on it's face time and time again.

Captain morgan talking about someone other than himself falling on his face time and time again?


 

captain morgan

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If you think an event not happening means that a probabilistic statement is wrong, then yes, probability vexes you.


Naw... I just love the greenie belief that if you provide coin-toss science, that it is somehow science.

Face facts, the idiot that made the prediction is probably flipping burgers today as a result of their massive flaw... But take heart, I see that your AGW side-kick is back, you 2 can always act as each other's enabler in this global warming addiction that you have.
 

mentalfloss

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Jun 28, 2010
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Naw... I just love the greenie belief that if you provide coin-toss science, that it is somehow science.

Face facts, the idiot that made the prediction is probably flipping burgers today as a result of their massive flaw... But take heart, I see that your AGW side-kick is back, you 2 can always act as each other's enabler in this global warming addiction that you have.

Rhetoric shmetoric.
 

JLM

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Naw... I just love the greenie belief that if you provide coin-toss science, that it is somehow science.

Face facts, the idiot that made the prediction is probably flipping burgers today as a result of their massive flaw... But take heart, I see that your AGW side-kick is back, you 2 can always act as each other's enabler in this global warming addiction that you have.

Is there any doubt that warming (probably short term) is happening in parts of the world? Fluctuations in temperature trends isn't an uncommon phenomenum.
 

captain morgan

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Is there any doubt that warming (probably short term) is happening in parts of the world? Fluctuations in temperature trends isn't an uncommon phenomenum.


Impossible JLM... Why there is a science guy (see OP) that says that there is a 50/50 chance that something, somewhere at some point might happen (well, maybe... kinda).

Rhetoric shmetoric.

There's a 50/50 chance that your misspelling of "shmetoric" is due to AGW.
 

petros

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I hear la nina has been extended...how the hell did that happen? Because we now pay $1.25 + per L?

La Niña is the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which impacts weather conditions all over the world.
Oh no, not more global cooling? That means more droughts and a CHANGE backwards. This will kill millions if the droughts hit Asia, Australia and worsen in Nor Am. La nina pounded the snot out of Russia last year. US and E.Africa this year. Lets see what change oceans cooling brings us next year. Will Canadian Prairies and BC be next?
 
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Tonington

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La Niña is the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which impacts weather conditions all over the world.

Oh no, not more global cooling?

Reading comprehension fail.

Naw... I just love the greenie belief that if you provide coin-toss science, that it is somehow science.

Nah, you just like to make stuff up, and ignore that a roughly 50-50 chance could be an actual probability.

Is there any doubt that warming (probably short term) is happening in parts of the world? Fluctuations in temperature trends isn't an uncommon phenomenum.

It's in the OP, the weather events at the time of that statement could not say positively that the North Pol might melt that summer. But the conditions that existed at the time could lead to the event happening. P=0.5 is a common short term probability in meteorology...
 

mentalfloss

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Jun 28, 2010
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It's the AGW buddy.. It's got you all feverish

Nah, I just enjoy having a big hearty gut laugh when someone like you brings absolutely nothing credible to the table.

I'm always ready to slap you around like a dead mackeral when you decide to stop pussyfooting. :)
 

Kakato

Time Out
Jun 10, 2009
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So? The Arctic is huge. You could spend 6 years in many places and not see the work that is done by scientists...

Some scientists do rely on satellite data sets and some do not; it was a Canadian Scientist who reported on the "rotten" ice conditions that the satellites couldn't detect. He went out on the ice and did it the old fashioned way.
Ice is 'rotten' in the Beaufort Sea
It may be huge but theres not many people and I have been in every town and airport in the arctic and except for the Canadian govt polar bear guy who used to fly right into camp and the mars expedition on Devon island whom I chatted with every day not one researcher could ever be seen farther then the last town.They might chopper out for a day of research but not once did we ever have any stay in camp and we were remote. So i can see the work done by scientists because I knew where everyone was and there was no research camps anywhere,most of them stayed in their nice warm hotel room and did their research on the internet because remember that the more panic you can spread on the population then the more grant money comes to you.

it's a vicious circle and really hurts the folks who actually do want to do some good research and make a difference.Any exploration camp looking to become a gold,silver or diamond mine will have their own experts anyways.
 

captain morgan

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Nah, you just like to make stuff up, and ignore that a roughly 50-50 chance could be an actual probability.

Sure, 50/50 is a probability, just a piss poor one... Maybe the author could incorporate a 95% margin of error as well, at least it would add a little more comic relief.

Nah, I just enjoy having a big hearty gut laugh when someone like you brings absolutely nothing credible to the table.

You couldn't be anymore wrong little buddy... There is at least a 50/50 chance.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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La Niña is the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean which
impacts weather conditions all over the
world
Comprehend? How was your summer? Above or below average temps? Why? What about the west coast? Did they break 25C this summer?
 

mentalfloss

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Comprehend? How was your summer? Above or below average temps? Why? What about the west coast? Did they break 25C this summer?

Yes, La Nina should have some effect on global climate. It is one of the natural forces governing global climate.

Now that we have gotten that far, did you have a point to make?