The Collapse of Globalism, JR Saul, Book Review

[BitWhys]

Re: RE: The Collapse of Globa

Interesting link BitWhys, I might be seeing things wrong but it looks to me like Uncle Sams on the financial skids.

If the link you're talking about is to the IMF site, its actually talking about one of its clients, Morocco. The US debt-to-GDP has gotten worse. If, among other more immediately practical things, it were'nt the hub of the Washington Consensus it would already be on the life support list. Currently for the US its at about between 67.1% and 81.6%, depending on how you look at it.

It hasn't gone unnoticed. Not overseas, anyways.

 

[Toro]

Re: RE: The Collapse of Globa

Do you think we've been in a "depression" for a couple decades?

Using the world's largest economy again, I'd say the stagflation of the 70s, Volker's interest rates, and Reagan's recession were nothing to write home about. Globally there was the Asian Bubble and the collapse of the Soviet Union to consider.

I'd say the economy wasn't that great.

There's a difference between not "great" and "depression", isn't there? No serious person can make the comparison to what has happened since 1970 to what happened from 1929-1933.

However, its still incorrect.

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/nipaweb/TableView.asp#Mid

US growth rates, annualized

1930-39 0.9%
1940-49 5.6%
1950-59 4.1%
1960-69 4.4%
1970-79 3.2%
1980-89 3.0%
1990-99 3.1%
2000-04 2.6%

Looking at different time periods though, we see a little different picture

1935-44 9.9%
1945-54 1.3%
1955-64 3.8%
1965-74 3.7%
1975-84 3.0%
1985-94 3.0%
1995-04 3.2%

If you adjust for population growth, the periods 1975-04 look very similar to 1955-1975 as the latter saw higher population growth.

The US economy has compounded 1.6% annually per capita from 1790 to 2003. It was 1.1% from 1800 to 1900. It was 2.1% from 1900 to 2000. It was 2.2% from 1980 to 2000. It was 2.4% from 1950 to 1980. It was 2.1% from 1970 to 1980.

You can get the data from the St-Louis Fed (which gets its data from the BEA) and Economic History Services. It is US real GDP per person (2000 prices)

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

http://eh.net/hmit/gdp/

 

[Toro]

Re: RE: The Collapse of Globa

If the link you're talking about is to the IMF site, its actually talking about one of its clients, Morocco. The US debt-to-GDP has gotten worse. If, among other more immediately practical things, it were'nt the hub of the Washington Concensus it would already be on the life support list. Currently for the US its at about between 67.1% and 81.6%, depending on how you look at it.

It hasn't gone unnoticed.

Using the like for like data from the OECD, Table EO78 at the bottom of the page

http://www.oecd.org/topicstatsportal/0,2647,en_2825_495698_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

The US ranks 11th highest in total debt/GDP of the 27 countries in the OECD, and lower than Canada in 2005.

So stop this silly shrillness.

 

[BitWhys]

Re: RE: The Collapse of Globalism, JR Saul, Book Review

I meant in the manner you were refering when extrapolating economic growth to the rise in debt. You were saying that we were in a recession because there was a decrease in GDP after adjusting for debt and population. It is correct to adjust for population, it isn't when adjusting for debt in this manner. It is valid to say that more debt is pushing the economy higher than it otherwise would be. Its not valid to say that we are in a recession.

That doesn't mean its irrelevent. Far from it. The bond market in sovereign credits pays great attention too. I am more than aware of the rising debt in the economy and the roll that it plays. And it certainly could cause a recession in the future.

interpolating, not extrapolating and you could have said so in the first place without piling on a bunch of crap from the balance sheet when I'm talking income statement. its entirely valid, just not common. without the current deficit spending frenzy in the US, the demand for that last several hundred billion would be absent, the unpurchased product would have had no value and the GDP would be directly effected.

I never said recession. Please spare me the straw men. I WILL say my observation indicates both that things are not always what they seem and important considerations tend to go unnoticed. In this case that would be the unacknowledged influence of fiscal policy on the "strength" of US the economy.

 

[BitWhys]

Re: RE: The Collapse of Globa

There's a difference between not "great" and "depression", isn't there? No serious person can make the comparison to what has happened since 1970 to what happened from 1929-1933.

I don't recall JRS saying anything about things being of either the same magnitude or complexion as the great depression.

 

[BitWhys]

Re: RE: The Collapse of Globa

Using the like for like data from the OECD, Table EO78 at the bottom of the page...

liabilities and debt are NOT the same thing but thanks for wasting my time.

 

[Jay]

Poor Toro....he's such a nice guy and he tries to help and people crap on him.

I still love you Toro!

 

[Said1]

Interpolating: intra calculation of the value of a function between the values already known.

Extrapolating: extra calculation of the value of a function outside the range of known values.


Wow, it's a tough call.

 

[darkbeaver]

from American Theocracy
from the chapter Borrowed Prosperity

Clyde Prestowitz, the onetime senior counselor in Ronald Regan's
Commerce Department who thereafter went on to found and head Washington's Economic Strategy Institute for two decades, summed up:

America needs to regcognize that many of the assumptions guiding its economic policy are at odds with the realities of today's
global economy. Its performance in a broad range of areas-including savings, education, energy and water conservation, critical infrastructure and workforce upskilling-is far below the standard of many other nations. America needs to understand that its refusal to have a broad competiveness policy is, in fact a policy. And it gives leading U.S. CEOs no choice but to play into the strategies of other countries. This policy, according to its proponents, leaves decisions to the unseen hand of the market. Actually, however, it leaves them to the highly visable hands of lobbyists and foreign policymakers. It is a policy that ultimately leads to impoverishmant.

What kind of politics or crisis could overcome the combination of Bush administration strategic neglect, Washington interest- group entrenchment, and parochial Republican constituency pressures no one quite knew.

 

[BitWhys]

Re: RE: The Collapse of Globalism, JR Saul, Book Review

Poor Toro....he's such a nice guy and he tries to help and people crap on him.

I still love you Toro!

tries to bury the point in a pile of technocratic nonsense (JRS told me I'd meet people like this) is more like it. a simple public debt to GDP ratio and his best effort is to toss a link to a system that includes pension plans and cash in circulation as if they're related.

of course you do.

 

[Jay]

Yes, yes I do....

See I'm familiar with Toro's credentials and his way of thinking economically and we share similar ideas on economics...

 

[BitWhys]

let me guess.

another MBA who enjoys playing with his pencil in public

 

[Jay]

Me?

 

[BitWhys]

what about you?

 

[Curiosity]

BitWhys

It is easily read you have established yourself as knowledgeable and intelligent, therefore why do you seek to demean others on the forum who debate knowledgeably with you and have done you no harm personally?

After 18 posts you have chosen insult over challenge? To demean and disparage complete strangers? Why? How does that establish you as Alpha Male in the group?

 

[BitWhys]

must have been a good guess.

 

[Sassylassie]

Wednesday's Child there can't be any Alpha males on this forum just Alpha Females and that jobs been taken by Cosmo, You, me and Said!, Manda.

Get away from my shrubs boys, no pissing allowed.

 

[Said1]

And beside, to even be considered for the position, you have to be funny. Even the Bev has his moments.

 

[FiveParadox]

I could be an Alpha male!

Heh, and if I get appointed, I intend to overhaul the office in pink.

 

[Curiosity]

WC had a snitty didn't she??? sorry folks....

I really hate to see people get puffed up with members they don't know yet....

Give everyone a chance..... and Five can be Alpha any time he wants....as long as Andem and Cosmo say it's ok!

Thing is with women we do really well sharing the Alpha duties when we are busy with our makeup and nails!