Re: RE: Should Quebec separate from Canada?
Yes, Quebec has a lot to lose going it alone. For example, as a national government, it could not use its provincial status in order to protect Quebec firms when bidding for contracts with Hydro-Quebec nor would they be able keep rules pertaining to such cultural (language) protections, such as distribution of english films in Quebec. Unless all members agreed, of course! :lol:
Also, membership in the World Trade Organization is required prior to entry into NAFTA and neither process would be automatic, easy or fast. WTO membership alone, would involve years of complicated discussions; and not to mention the fact that there are already 30 countries standing in line, for such talks. Plus any concessions granted at that stage of game, must be granted to all WTO members.
What a daunting process.
Hamlet said:The economics of Quebec is the big question.
If Quebec were to go it alone, one of the big unanswered questions is what happens to the existing treaties that were negotiated between Canada and the U.S.
Essentially, what this boils down to is this: does an independent Quebec inherit the financial benefits of NAFTA? My guess is that Canada would argue "no". Here's a quick example of why I think that.
Canada provides 30 or 35% of America's lumber needs. Of that, Quebec provides about 18%. Now, if at some point Quebec's standing in regards to NAFTA is in question, what do you think the other provinces and Ottawa are going to argue? They're going to want B.C. and Ontario to take up that 18%. This would be repeated in all industries. What Quebec loses would be Canada's gain.
I believe an independent Quebec would face a future similar to that of Russia. Initially, unemployment would be quite high--perhaps 20 to 35% unemployment. Immigration to Quebec would come to a standstill, and it's population would begin to drop. The economic disparity between Quebec and Canada would be staggering. But, after a decade or two, I think you'd see things start to turn around. Quebec would create it's own bi-national trade agreements and the anger that Canada might hold toward Quebec would probably begin to abate.
Canada would be looking out for what's in Canada's best interests, and what would be in Canada's best interests would be to dump as much national debt on Quebec's shoulders and take as much industry away from Quebec as possible. But rarely do political leaders want to address these kind of details.
Yes, Quebec has a lot to lose going it alone. For example, as a national government, it could not use its provincial status in order to protect Quebec firms when bidding for contracts with Hydro-Quebec nor would they be able keep rules pertaining to such cultural (language) protections, such as distribution of english films in Quebec. Unless all members agreed, of course! :lol:
Also, membership in the World Trade Organization is required prior to entry into NAFTA and neither process would be automatic, easy or fast. WTO membership alone, would involve years of complicated discussions; and not to mention the fact that there are already 30 countries standing in line, for such talks. Plus any concessions granted at that stage of game, must be granted to all WTO members.
What a daunting process.