Scientists warn it’s the ‘new norm’ after worst drought in 800 years

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Scientists warn it’s the ‘new norm’ after worst drought in 800 years

The signs of drought were everywhere, from shrivelled rivers and lakes in the American West to brittle brown lawns and parched farm crops in the Canadian Prairies.

Even the hardy, drought-tolerant pinyon pine forests of New Mexico turned grey as they withered and died, starved of water for far too long.

Anyone who weathered the stubborn dry spell that enveloped western North America from 2000 to 2004 knows it was harsh, but now a group of researchers has concluded it was the most severe drought in 800 years – bone-dry conditions that the scientists believe could become the “new norm” in this vital agricultural region.

“Projections indicate that drought events of this length and severity will be commonplace through the end of the 21st century,” the group of 10 scientists from several American universities and the University of British Columbia wrote in a study published Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

“Even worse, projections suggest that this drought will become the wet end of a drier hydroclimate period.”

If so, a “megadrought” that severely cuts crop production could be on the horizon, the scientists warn. Many farmers now in the throes of an extreme drought in the U.S. Midwest that is devastating corn and soybean crops and threatening to send food prices soaring might concur, although it’s not yet clear whether this dry spell is part of the broader trend, noted Beverly Law, a professor of global change biology at Oregon State University and a co-author of the study.

For their research, the scientists examined historical drought-severity data based on tree-ring analysis. While there have been many bouts of hot, dry weather in the West, they found the drought that accompanied the start of this century was unlike any since 1146 to 1151.

The 2000-04 drought severely affected soil moisture, river levels, crops, forests and grasslands. Runoff in the upper Colorado River basin was cut in half and crop productivity in 2,383 counties in the western United States declined 5 per cent. The drought also reduced the land’s ability to sequester carbon dioxide, by 51 per cent on average in the western U.S., Canada and Mexico, the scientists found. As trees, plants and crops withered, more carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere.

Although the drought was not as long or as severe in Canada, it still caused widespread economic damage.

An analysis by the Drought Research Initiative, a temporary program that pulled together Canadian university and government scientists, found that agricultural production dropped an estimated $3.6-billion in 2001 and 2002, while net farm income was zero in Alberta and negative in Saskatchewan in 2002. Facing widespread scarcity of feed and water, many livestock producers had to sell off some or all of their herd. And in parts of the Prairies, the soil was so dry it swirled up into a storm of dust, obscuring the sky and even contributing to some traffic crashes.

Long-time Saskatchewan farmer Don Connick counts himself lucky during that drought. He has a small herd of Hereford cattle and grows a variety of crops, including wheat, barley and alfalfa, on 1,600 acres in the Cypress Hills, near the boundary with Alberta.

His hay and barley crop yields were poor those years and farming was a struggle, but he had more water than others. The Cypress Hills sit at a higher elevation and generally get more precipitation and cooler temperatures than the surrounding area.

“We’re in a micro-climate, I guess you can say,” Mr. Connick said.

But he is worried about what lies ahead if droughts become more common and more widespread. He has his eye on the parched conditions ravaging the U.S. Midwest.

“The concern I have is that drought seems to be heading north,” he said. “We’ve had some pretty significantly wet years in these last five or six years but we’re not immune to drought here.”

You don’t have to remind Saskatchewan farmer Paul Heglund of that.

Mr. Heglund farms on 3,600 acres near Consul, southwest of the Cypress Hills. It’s the same land his grandfather homesteaded 100 years ago and the region has always been drought-prone, so much so the blistering dry spell a decade ago doesn’t even stick out in his mind.

Food producers here long ago adapted to farming with scant water, a reality more might soon have to confront. Mr. Heglund only seeds half his land each year to allow moisture to build in the soil.

“It’s kind of second nature,” he said of coping with drought conditions. “We don’t even notice it as something particular.”

Scientists warn
 

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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It's been 800 years since the 1950's?

....


For their research, the scientists examined historical drought-severity data based on tree-ring analysis. While there have been many bouts of hot, dry weather in the West, they found the drought that accompanied the start of this century was unlike any since 1146 to 1151.
 

JLM

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 27, 2008
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There's a lot of bullsh*t involved with all the records that are supposedly broken, not a week goes by that we don't hear in the news that yet another record has been broken. How many friggin' records are there?
 

L Gilbert

Winterized
Nov 30, 2006
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the-brights.net
I can see certain areas of the planet having droughts, but generally, as the planet warms more there will be more moisture in the air. I expect areas near large bodies of water would be fairly drought-free.


JLM, don't you understand how records are? I mean if I picked up a 100 kg weight with my left little toe that would be a record. If someone else picked up 101 kg next month with their left little toe, my record would be broken and a new one set.
 

JLM

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 27, 2008
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JLM, don't you understand how records are? I mean if I picked up a 100 kg weight with my left little toe that would be a record. If someone else picked up 101 kg next month with their left little toe, my record would be broken and a new one set.

Kind of confirms how trivial some of them are doesn't it? :lol:
 

Cabbagesandking

Council Member
Apr 24, 2012
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You want to know about records? Try this!

Record Summer Temperatures, By The Numbers | Climate Central

There is, indeed, more moisture in the atmosphere. That does not mean that it will rain more since the warmer air holds more moisture. What it does mean, often, is that when there is a cool spell and it rains it will pour. Floods that are damaging and useless for agricultural purposes.

Also, climate change often means climate shift. Some areas will get less rainfall than they ever did and will experience droughts such as we are now seeing with increasing desertification in some regions. Some will get floods - as in North East Australia where they have had three "one hundred year floods" in forty years.

Drought and flood are the way of the future.
 

EagleSmack

Hall of Fame Member
Feb 16, 2005
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Yes it does get hot in the summers.

From the article...

"The weather this summer has been so extreme that it has rivaled the most destructive and unbearable summers in U.S. history, years that are infamous in weather lore."

Nary a peep about the cold winters... because that's weather. And we are told during the winter season to ignore low winter temperatures because it's weather.
 

Nuggler

kind and gentle
Feb 27, 2006
11,596
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Backwater, Ontario.
The "drought" in Ont. is ongoing in spite of a few rain showers and storms.

Our grass is ****ed...................YAY!!!

Hope it's not the new norm

If it is I don't like Norm too much

Our well likes him so far, but maybe not for much longer.

Good thing I'm an ex union guy and have a fortune stashed for well drilling and etc.:roll:

gotta love it.