Nova Scotia may turn Orange

[BitWhys]

Re: RE: Nova Scotia may turn

Here is a little tidbit about Bob Rae from wiki. He not the saviour you would like to make hiom out to be. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Rae
In addition, the Rae government initially underestimated the extent of the North American recession. Their first budget projected a deficit of almost ten billion dollars, and enacted a series of spending programs to mitigate the worst effects of an economic lag. Some have described this budget as following a Keynesian orthodoxy, spending money in the public sector to stimulate employment and productivity. Unfortunately, the monies provided for in the budget were insufficient against the recession, and did not create enough productivity. Thomas Walkom described the budget as "the worst of both worlds" -- angering the business community, but not doing enough to provide for public relief. For some, the budget reinforced a popular stereotype of the NDP as irresponsible spenders.

Factor out the direct contribution Rae's defict spending had on the provincial GDP and Ontario would have been treated to 4 straight years of negative growth, not just the one he walked into and the one he dealt with during his first year in office. That alone would have had businessmen running for the hills, not just the manufacturers who were abandoning the branch plants courtesy of the FTA. Ontario's economy was already pooched when he got strapped with the job and already running a deficit of over $3B.

Exclude the deficit he inherited, factor for inflation and in straight numbers alone Ontario came out over $14B ahead of the game forget about the people he kept employed and the Bay Street suicides he prevented.

ok

maybe that last part isn't exactly a plus but I'd rather leave consideration of that sort of morals out of the debate if you don't mind.

 

[BitWhys]

hang on

I think I goofed a formula...

 

[BitWhys]

nah

that's right

$14.75B

ON EDIT:

found it.

$18.24B, but I really will need a second opinion. :mrgreen:

 

[BitWhys]

here Toro, I'm sure you'll think of something so let me get you started.

BitWhys, you are being disingenuous because... :wink:

 

[damngrumpy]

I hope the NDP wins in Nova Scotia and I am looking forward to them returning to power here in BC

 

[Vicious]

Re: RE: BCNDP's Seats

I think everyone was surprised in the Province of British Columbia, when the New Democratic Party of British Columbia captured thirty-three of the seventy-five seats, and garnered more than forty per cent of the popular vote. :?

A petty point that I wouldn't bring up with anyone other than you. BC has seventy-nine seats. Currently 46 are Liberals and 33 are NDP.

And you forgot to mention that Gordon Campbell is even more uncomfortable in his skin than Stephen Harper, was busted for DUI in Hawaii and still won a majority. That tells you how bad the NDP is in BC or how good the Liberals have been for BC. Carole James has alienated labour to move closer to business and hasn't gained any support from the business side. Her best feature is that she's not Glen Clark.

 

[Karlin]

Having THREE major Federal political parties is good for democracy.

It is a big advantage over the USA system, where we see the two parites both being on the same path. With three, that cannot happen as easily.

However, since Canada has never elected an NDP government, they are somewhat irrelevant. Only until they are elected tho.

I think we should give them a try!!

 

[Nuggler]

Scotia could probably do worse.

I remember Bob Rae and people whining about "Rae Days", where one worked 4 days instead of 5, thusly keeping people employed. The loss of one days pay hurt, but not as much as loss of a job.

We were in a recession when he was Ont. premier; he didn't create it.

He did get continuously broadsided by big business for "not doing enough", and by labour for "not doing enough".

I think he blinked. Too bad.

Tried to be all things to all people :?:

However, I don't believe I would ever vote for "photo-op" Layton. Too smooth fer a rough hewn workie like meself.

But, then again, politicos pretty much all suck. IMHO

:idea:

 

[Jersay]

From what the NDP was in B.C at only 2 seats in the last election to get an extra 31 seats and almost make a run for government in the early stages in B.C was glorious watching it on t.v.

And watching those teenagers or young twenties guys saying NDP NDP was really great.

Now, I wouldn't say never, say never for the NDP in all provinces. It has been in Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, B.C, now possibly Nova Scotia.

 

[dekhqonbacha]

In my map on the wall the whole Canada is orange; does it mean that NDP is ruling all over Canada?

 

[Jersay]

Absolutely.

 

[jerry]

One thing i don't understand is the double standard in the media between the NDP and the Conservatives.

The Conservatives can ruin a province (Saskatchewan before the NDP took over), leave a 40 billion deficit (Mulroney in 93), leave a 6 billion deficit (Mike Harris) but now one will ever question their ability to lead a government. If the NDP does the same then it's the end of the world, those socialists can't govern blah blah blah....

Can somebody explain this?

 

[Finder]

Well I hope the Democrats take Nova Scotia, even if they don't they are going to have a good showing at it.

 

[Toro]

So we already have two NDP provinces. Wouldn't it be great if the NDP controlled each and every province.

No.

 

[Toro]

here Toro, I'm sure you'll think of something so let me get you started.

BitWhys, you are being disingenuous because... :wink:

Nah

I didn't mind Rae. I remember the first two years of his government being a disaster, then Rae figured out he had to be a grown up and lead his party on the road to Damascus out of their utopian dreams. In the end, I respected him for what he was trying to do.

To me, there are the mature NDPers, like the ones who run Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the "Third Way, No Way" teenage dyed-in-the-wool ideologues who seem to have little comprehension of reality, which are usually the NDPers who've never actually held power.

Besides, though Rae got it wrong during the first half of his term, the fiscal problems with Bob Rae were really sown under David Peterson. Peterson was accelerating spending at a 10-12% clip during the final years of his reign when the economy was humming, which over-stimulated the economy and forced the BoC to raise interest rates higher than they otherwise would. (This was hurting the West because commodity prices were low. That's why I don't have too much sympathy for Ontario now as Dodge jacks up interest rates to cool a booming economy out West while Ontario lags.)

 

[darkbeaver]

RE: Nova Scotia may turn

I went to school with the local Liberal candidate and I have known and worked with the encumbent NDP MLA to get him elected. The advantage for the NDP in this election is that the electorate no longer percieve a differance between the two corporate partys, this effectivly makes for a split in the dummy vote.

 

[Colpy]

here Toro, I'm sure you'll think of something so let me get you started.

BitWhys, you are being disingenuous because... :wink:

Nah

I didn't mind Rae. I remember the first two years of his government being a disaster, then Rae figured out he had to be a grown up and lead his party on the road to Damascus out of their utopian dreams. In the end, I respected him for what he was trying to do.

To me, there are the mature NDPers, like the ones who run Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the "Third Way, No Way" teenage dyed-in-the-wool ideologues who seem to have little comprehension of reality, which are usually the NDPers who've never actually held power.

Besides, though Rae got it wrong during the first half of his term, the fiscal problems with Bob Rae were really sown under David Peterson. Peterson was accelerating spending at a 10-12% clip during the final years of his reign when the economy was humming, which over-stimulated the economy and forced the BoC to raise interest rates higher than they otherwise would. (This was hurting the West because commodity prices were low. That's why I don't have too much sympathy for Ontario now as Dodge jacks up interest rates to cool a booming economy out West while Ontario lags.)

Yeah, I always thought Rae was a man of principles.......

30 years ago I was an NDP voter, but that was when they were a party of the common man, still steeped in the populist ideals of their western rural roots. They slowly slipped from them into the hands of organized labour, and under guys like David Lewis, that wasn't a bad combination.

But the rural faction steadily lost influence. Now the NDP is led and influenced by the worst of all possible combination, the social-climbing elite of the organized labour bureaucracy, and ivory-tower psuedo-intellectual academics.

Not a shred of common sense in the bunch.

Lots of brains, unfortunately with no connection with reality. Has anybody actually listened to Jack Layton?

Wow!

 

[Toro]

RE: Nova Scotia may turn

Colpy

I'm from Saskatchewan. It is shocking to me that the NDP was wiped out in the previous election in that province and only one two seats in this election.

The federal party is now perceived as a party of the white wine socialists of the Beaches and the politically correct, environmentalists, gun control enthusiasts, social liberals, etc. The Saskatchewan NDP government has made no effort to enforce the gun registry for this reason.

 

[Lotuslander]

If I still lived in NS I would either vote Tory or Dipper both parties have good MLAs especially, Ron Russell(who's not running again) Howard Epstein (probably the smartest person in the House), Kevin Deveuax, Nanky Corbett, Bill Estabrooks (all three of whom are fine fellows) Ernie Fage (fun pereson to be around-down to Earth fellow) Mrak Parent (actually one of the few politicians who really is in it for the greater good).

One thing the poll doesn't take into acount (aside for some serious methodological errors in my opinion) is how the actual vote will break down. It looks as if it is an exceptionally close race in NS but, the Dippers, would probably need a 3-5% lead over the Tories in order fror them to win a majority Government. This is because NDP support (much like federal Liberal support) is concentrated in urban areas; Sydney-Industrial Cape Breton and Halifax. 6 months ago they were polling in the high 40s in HRM. Conversely, Tory support is concentrated in rural mainland Nova Scotia where riding are geographically larger but, with less population. In short the Tory vote is more efficient because it is not wasted racking up large majorities in ridings which are easily won. Traditionally Cape Breton has been a Liberal Bastion but, if the poll is to be believed it looks as if Manning MacDonald and Michel Sampson may be the only Grits returning from the Island.

On Tuesday in order for either the Tories or NDP to get a majority alot will depend on how ridings such as Bedford and Eastern shore vote. While Bill Dooks (Eastern Shore) has not had trouble in the past winning his riding the collapse of the Liberal vote(if indeed it has happened) could push disheartened grits to vote Dipper this time and could make for a close race in some of these suburban Halifax ridings and change traditionall Tory ridngs Orange or Orange ridings Blue if the disenfranchised Grits decide to vote Tory instead. Interestingly Kerry Morash in Queens who has no Liberal opponent could also find himself in trouble if all the Grits vote NDP. In the end for the Dippers to have a chance at winning a mjority they not only need to hold on to their HRM strongholds Pictou West and Hants East and capture two or three more in HRM but, they must also replace the Liberals as the main party up in Cape Breton. The Tories meanwhile need to hold onto their current ridings and capture two of these three Digby-Annapolis, Annapolis or King's West in order fro them to secure a majority.

It appears to me that the Tories have a better cahnce of forming a majority since they need only win two wxtra seats than they already have whereas the NDP needs to win 12.

My predictions: NDP 19(+4); PC 28(+3); Libs 5(-5)

Halifax Citadel2 : NDP
Halifax Clayton Park: NDP
Halifax Fairview: NDP
Halifax Needham: NDP
Hammonds Plains - Upper Sackville: Tory
Hants East: NDP
Hants West: Tory
Inverness: Tory
Kings North: Tory
Kings South: Tory
Kings West: Tory
Lunenburg: Tory
Lunenburg West: Tory
Pictou Centre: Tory
Pictou East: Tory
Pictou West: NDP
Preston: NDP
Queens: Tory
Richmond: Liberal
Sackville - Cobequid: NDP
Shelburne: Tory (one to watch should be close)
Timberlea-Prospect: NDP
Truro - Bible Hill: Tory
Victoria - The Lakes: NDP (another close race)
Waverley - Fall River Beaver Bank: Tory
Yarmouth: Tory
Annapolis: Tory
Antigonish: Tory
Argyle: Tory
Bedford: Liberal (Lib Ldr MacKenzie's riding close race could go PC/NDP)
Cape Breton Centre: NDP
Cape Breton North: Tory
Cape Breton Nova: NDP
Cape Breton South: Liberal (if this riding falls to the NDP the Grits will be wiped out)
Cape Breton West: Tory (should be close race in a traditional Liberal riding)
Chester - St.Margaret's: Tory (close race b/ween NDP&PC)
Clare: Liberal
Colchester - Musquodoboit Valley: Tory
Colchester North: Tory
Cole Harbour: NDP
Cole Harbour - Eastern Passage: NDP
Cumberland North: Tory
Cumberland South: Tory
Dartmouth East: NDP
Dartmouth North: NDP
Dartmouth South - Portland Valley: NDP
Digby - Annapolis: Tory
Eastern Shore: Tory
Glace Bay: Liberal
Guysborough - Sheet Harbour: Tory
Halifax Atlantic: NDP
Halifax Chebucto: NDP

 

[Finder]

here Toro, I'm sure you'll think of something so let me get you started.

BitWhys, you are being disingenuous because... :wink:

Nah

I didn't mind Rae. I remember the first two years of his government being a disaster, then Rae figured out he had to be a grown up and lead his party on the road to Damascus out of their utopian dreams. In the end, I respected him for what he was trying to do.

To me, there are the mature NDPers, like the ones who run Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the "Third Way, No Way" teenage dyed-in-the-wool ideologues who seem to have little comprehension of reality, which are usually the NDPers who've never actually held power.

Besides, though Rae got it wrong during the first half of his term, the fiscal problems with Bob Rae were really sown under David Peterson. Peterson was accelerating spending at a 10-12% clip during the final years of his reign when the economy was humming, which over-stimulated the economy and forced the BoC to raise interest rates higher than they otherwise would. (This was hurting the West because commodity prices were low. That's why I don't have too much sympathy for Ontario now as Dodge jacks up interest rates to cool a booming economy out West while Ontario lags.)

Yeah, I always thought Rae was a man of principles.......

30 years ago I was an NDP voter, but that was when they were a party of the common man, still steeped in the populist ideals of their western rural roots. They slowly slipped from them into the hands of organized labour, and under guys like David Lewis, that wasn't a bad combination.

But the rural faction steadily lost influence. Now the NDP is led and influenced by the worst of all possible combination, the social-climbing elite of the organized labour bureaucracy, and ivory-tower psuedo-intellectual academics.

Not a shred of common sense in the bunch.

Lots of brains, unfortunately with no connection with reality. Has anybody actually listened to Jack Layton?

Wow!

30 years ago!!! wow they were populist but they were even more socialist (Christian socialist however). Wow you are a left wing loonie lol