North American Shale

EagleSmack

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I heard on NPR about the increased production, advancements in technology, etc of shale oil in Canada and the US and how some of the experts are saying it is a direct challenge to OPEC nations.

Then I saw this across the wire of a Saudi Prince confirming this...

Alwaleed warns of US shale danger to Saudi - FT.com

Since many of you are pretty sharp on all this I wanted to get your opinions.
 

captain morgan

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The unknown in this equation relates to the reserve life of shale oil/gas and it's 'extractability' over time.

If these formations act in a manner similar to the conventional (known) geology, then it's a fair assumption that OPEC will be affected in a visible manner
 

Tecumsehsbones

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I heard on NPR about the increased production, advancements in technology, etc of shale oil in Canada and the US and how some of the experts are saying it is a direct challenge to OPEC nations.

Then I saw this across the wire of a Saudi Prince confirming this...

Alwaleed warns of US shale danger to Saudi - FT.com

Since many of you are pretty sharp on all this I wanted to get your opinions.
Absolutely. Just as Pennsylvania was the the source of most of our oil in the early days. There the oil is so easily accessible it bubbled to the surface in pools. At the time, Texas oil was "inaccessible." Well, techniques advance, and by WWII, we had the techniques to tap Texas' reserves, which were vastly greater than Pennsylvania's.

Similarly, the oil domes in the Middle East are fairly shallow and feature great big pools of crude. Easier to get to and extract than shale oil. But the techniques for extracting from shale, once clumsy and prohibitively expensive, have benefited from higher oil prices, economies of scale, and refinement of technique. By the latest estimates, North America may have more total petroleum than the rest of the world combined. More than enough to be self-sufficient at any rate. And with costs falling and prices high, we can get at more and more of it.

On the other hand, it would be mean but funny to drain every last drop of Middle Eastern oil, then wave a fond farewell and let them carry on being tribes of squabbling desert throwbacks. But for the oil, who gives a damn about the Middle East?
 

EagleSmack

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On the other hand, it would be mean but funny to drain every last drop of Middle Eastern oil, then wave a fond farewell and let them carry on being tribes of squabbling desert throwbacks. But for the oil, who gives a damn about the Middle East?

A lot more truth than fun in this statement. It is most likely what we'll do. Just like we do with many natural gas finds in the US...we cap them for a rainy day.

The same with the Middle East... if not for oil it would be just another Africa.
 

petros

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The Saudis should be sh*tting. The goal has always been to deplete cheap Arab oil before tapping into domestic reserves. Crude production in the US has taken leaps and bound recently but oil shale doesn't offer up crude oil, it offers up kerogen which is great for making fuel but nearly useless for the petrochemical industry.

When Joe average thinks of oil they think of gasoline and diesel that is about as far as it goes. Fuel for transportation isn't where oil companies make their money. It's the petrochemical and pharmaceutical industries where they make the good bucks.

To understand this fully you have to look at each grade of oil individually and the scope of products each grade can produce.

Saudis aren't worried about being crushed by the energy aspect but the petrochemical aspect that their oil lacks.

There is a lot more to oil than meets the eye.

We'll be burning kerogen in our vehicles deep into the future.

I'm sure you've heard of the Bakken being a huge source oil domestic oil for quite sometime but have you ever heard anybody talk about what sits under the Bakken or other oil shales like the Bearpaw, Thermopolis, Green River or Mowry.

We are going to see a shift from crude for fuel to kerogen for fuel and crude for the petrochemicals.

When you combine crude and kerogen reserves in NorAm, we have the world by the balls.
 

karrie

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Since many of you are pretty sharp on all this I wanted to get your opinions.

It's expensive. Until OPEC raises prices to force us to tap into it, it will still only be partially exploited. But once we do have to go into it heavily, expect water to become an even pricier commodity than current capitalism has braced us for (just my paranoid view).
 

Nick Danger

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We are going to see a shift from crude for fuel to kerogen for fuel and crude for the petrochemicals.

When you combine crude and kerogen reserves in NorAm, we have the world by the balls.

Yes, but at what cost ? The environmental footprint involved in developing shale gas reserves is huge.
 

petros

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Yes, but at what cost ? The environmental footprint involved in developing shale gas reserves is huge.

Oh good f*cking Lord. Why did the environment make oil in the first place?

Do you know what the ultimate frakking machine is that is super efficient at exploiting the earth's resources that man could never come close to beating? A tree.
 
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EagleSmack

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The Saudis should be sh*tting.

Crude production in the US has taken leaps and bound recently but oil shale doesn't offer up crude oil, it offers up kerogen which is great for making fuel but nearly useless for the petrochemical industry.


Saudis aren't worried about being crushed by the energy aspect but the petrochemical aspect that their oil lacks.


.

Why would they be sh*tting then?
 

hunboldt

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Yes, but at what cost ? The environmental footprint involved in developing shale gas reserves is huge.

Good point. THE shale gas industry has been 'immature', to say the least. Most of the Fracking gas escape comes from poorly designed well casements poured by get rich quick firms. Questionalbe 'disposal' of polluted waste water. a get in get out get invsiible policy...
 

EagleSmack

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If they lose the NorAm fuel market what do they have left if they can't tap into the petrochemical market?

I just got confused with you saying that shale oil is useless to the petrochemical industry and Saudi oil lacks petrochemical uses as well.

I'm a NOOB at all this so I'm just trying to get this straight in my head.
 

petros

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Heavy oil which we have in super abundance is a petrochemical goldmine when compared to light./sweet Saudi crude. The entire point of the XL pipeline isn't to export oil. It's to get the petrochemical industries in TX/LA booming again and export the chems.
 

Nick Danger

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Kerogen and shale gas are two complete and total different puppies all together.

Excuse me for confusing the two. Am I right in thinking that kerogen production is still in its infancy here in North America? On the other hand there seems to be somewhat of a boom on to exploit natural gas bearing shale reserves. In any case, common ground among the different varieties of fossil fuel production seems to be profit ahead of environmental responsibility. Not to say the environmental responsibility is non-existent, but profit driven private interests in general aren't voluntarily covering their tracks, and the resolve of governing authorities to insist on them doing so is questionable at best. Aren't we trading off immediate gratification for a doubtful future?
 

EagleSmack

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Ok. So with the advancements in technology in the shale oil, North America is squeezing or will be squeezing OPEC on (or at least) two fronts?
 

petros

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Excuse me for confusing the two. Am I right in thinking that kerogen production is still in its infancy here in North America? On the other hand there seems to be somewhat of a boom on to exploit natural gas bearing shale reserves. In any case, common ground among the different varieties of fossil fuel production seems to be profit ahead of environmental responsibility. Not to say the environmental responsibility is non-existent, but profit driven private interests in general aren't voluntarily covering their tracks, and the resolve of governing authorities to insist on them doing so is questionable at best. Aren't we trading off immediate gratification for a doubtful future?
What drives a tree to frak the earth? Any different than our own?


Can you prove that frakking does anything that the environauts claim or is it all rumour?
Ok. So with the advancements in technology in the shale oil, North America is squeezing or will be squeezing OPEC on (or at least) two fronts?
Yuppers. We become exporters rather than importers on two fronts.
 

Nick Danger

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Can you prove that frakking does anything that the environauts claim or is it all rumour?.

I've seen a couple of pretty convincing documentaries on the subject, at the very least it's grounds to take a closer look. I'm not disputing the need for fossil fuel development, we don't have any viable alternatives that could take its place were we simply to turn off the taps on oil & gas. However I am in favour of holding those who profit from fossil fuel development responsible to "tread lightly" with respect to the scars they leave behind.

In response to the "can you prove?" argument, I would ask "can you prove it doesn't?" The "denial" industry that grew up around tobacco production in the fifties and sixties is still very much alive in environmental disputes today.