
The Duffy trial: Senate scandal testimony threatens Harper’s fortunes among soft Conservative voters
August 20, 2015 – Days of bombshell revelations and conflicting testimony over who in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s inner circle knew what, and when, regarding the Mike Duffy Senate expense affair, are bringing bad news to the fight to lock in “soft” Conservative voters in the midst of a federal election campaign.
While the election period has yet to reach the halfway point during these dog days of summer, the criminal trial ofSenator Mike Duffy – a Harper appointee – is indeed capturing the attention of most Canadians – while exposing skepticism about the PM’s version of events. This, according to the findings from the latest Angus Reid Institute public opinion poll.
To recap: Senator Mike Duffy is on trial facing 31 charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery related to a $90,000 payment from Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright. This was made to repay Duffy’s ineligible Senate housing expenses. Conflicting testimony has subsequently raised questions over Harper’s version of events around this payment: that only Duffy and Wright – excluding all others – were aware of it. Wright has testified that the plan was conceived in part to minimize political damage to the prime minister. Ultimately however, damage has been done – as evidenced by key findings from this poll. Whether that damage is irreversible remains to be seen.
Key Findings:
Three-in-five Canadians (59%) say they don’t believe Stephen Harper’s version of events
This includes one-in-five (23%) voters leaning towards but not yet totally committed to the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) when it comes to their voting intention on October 19th
More generally, a majority of all uncommitted voters (59%) reject the Prime Minister’s account
When asked to choose between framing the Duffy trial as a “distraction” from other, more important campaign issues or framing it as evidence of a deeper scandal that will become a key issue in the campaign, fully three-fifths (61%) off all respondents choose the latter
Among those who see a deeper scandal than what has surfaced already are almost a quarter (23%) of leaning but as yet uncommitted CPC voters
That said, the Duffy affair may not yet be a deciding issue in the campaign:
More than seven-in-ten (72%) of all respondents who don’t believe Harper say the scandal is “outweighed by other election issues”
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The Duffy trial: Senate scandal testimony threatens Harper’s fortunes among soft Conservative voters - Angus Reid Institute