In the best-seller
More Guns, Less Crime (University of Chicago Press, 2000),
economist John Lott, Jr. examined the use of the broken windows approach as well as community and problem oriented policing programs in cities over 10,000 in population over two decades. He found that the impact of these policing policies were not very consistent across different types of crime. He described the pattern as almost "random". For the broken windows approach, Lott found that the approach was actually associated with murder and auto theft rising and rapes and larceny falling. Increased arrest rates, affirmative action policies for hiring police, and right-to-carry laws were much more important in explaining the changes in crime rates.
In the best-seller
Freakonomics,
economist Steven D. Levitt and co-author
Stephen J. Dubner cast
doubt on the notion that the Broken Windows theory was wholly responsible for New York's drop in crime. He instead noticed that years before the 1990s, abortion was legalized. Women who were least able to raise kids (the poor, addicts and unstable) were able to get abortions, so the number of children being born in broken families was decreasing. Most crimes committed in New York are committed by 16-24 year old males; when this demographic decreased in number the crime rate followed.
Refutations of their analysis appeared in
The Wall Street Journal[15] and
The Economist.
[16] The former quotes economists at the
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, who said, "[t]here are no statistical grounds for believing that the hypothetical youths who were aborted as fetuses would have been more likely to commit crimes had they reached maturity than the actual youths who developed from fetuses and carried to term."
[15] Also, murder among the first post-
Roe v. Wade cohort was, in some states, 3.1 times higher than the last group born before legalized abortion.
[17] These data show crime increasing after the advent of legalized abortion, thus contradicting Levitt's and Dubner's conclusions. Furthermore, increased rates of incarceration accounts for some of the decline in crime rates discussed by Levitt and Dubner; the vicissitudes of the
crack cocaine business also account for part of the rise and fall of crime rates during the period under discussion.[
citation needed]