Eligible + likely voters ÷ party preference = Huh?
We've been told for months now that the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals have taken a considerable, almost
shocking lead over the Conservatives, a putative fact that has
spawned a veritable
cottage industry of
idle speculation among journalists about whether or not Stephen Harper will resign.
By the
numbers,
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and his party have widened their public-opinion lead over the ruling Conservatives in the past few weeks, according to a new poll by Forum Research. Liberals were the preferred party for 39 per cent of poll respondents, compared to 31 per cent for the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the New Democratic Party.
That was in June. About a month later, on
July 25,
According to a survey from Forum Research released Thursday, the Liberals have widened their lead over the governing Conservatives to 16 points. Forum has the Grits at 44 per cent support, followed by Stephen Harper's Tories at 28 per cent and Thomas Mulcair's NDP at 18 per cent.
A more recent report put out by EKOS on August 10th showed the Liberals ahead by
13 points:
This poll...(reinforces) the notion that the now profound lead enjoyed by Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party is far from a blip.
Fast-forward to yesterday:
September 30, 2014 - Support for the Liberal Party of Canada increased slightly over the summer and is now tied for support with the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) among likely voters, according to the latest monthly poll from Angus Reid ..
So, just to straighten things out: According to various polls, the Liberals led the Conservatives in June by eight points, and widened their lead to sixteen points (44% to 28%) in July. Their current 33% support, which ties them with the Conservatives among likely voters but puts them ahead by three points among eligible voters, is a three-point
increase in support since June.
Hope that clears everything up.
Eligible + likely voters ÷ party preference = <em>Huh?</em> - Small Dead Animals