Based on data from early 2025, oil-by-rail in British Columbia and Western Canada is experiencing a shift in dynamics following the expansion of pipeline capacity, notably the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX). While total Canadian crude oil production has reached record highs, the reliance on rail to transport that oil has decreased as more product moves through pipelines.
Régie de l'énergie du Canada
Régie de l'énergie du Canada
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Key updates for 2025 include:
Reduced Rail Demand: As of March 2025, Canadian crude-by-rail exports hit an 8-year low, dropping by approximately 10% compared to 2023, as more oil is diverted to pipeline and marine transport.
Pipeline Dominance: The 590,000 barrel-per-day expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMEP) has, as of mid-2025, provided substantial capacity for moving crude to the BC coast for export, reducing the immediate need for rail, according to CAPP.
Operational Shifts: Despite the decrease, rail remains a key component of the Western Canadian energy logistics network, with infrastructure in the Port of Vancouver adapting to handle increased overall liquid bulk, including a 133% increase in bulk liquid tonnage in the first half of 2025.
Regulatory & Future Projects: The BC government continues to focus on safety regulations regarding the transport of liquid petroleum products by rail. Furthermore, discussions regarding new pipeline projects continue in late 2025, which may influence the future demand for oil-by-rail.
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
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In summary, for 2025, rail is serving as a more supplementary, rather than primary, method of moving oil to the British Columbia coast, with the market favoring the increased capacity of the expanded TMX pipeline.
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