All the Holocaustages released at one time & Hamas disarms & whatever governing body takes over Gaza, it’s not Hamas (& they aren’t keen on the PA either). They sound pretty clear and concise about this also.
Hamas attacks Israel
- Thread starter Serryah
- Start date
All the Holocaustages released at one time & Hamas disarms & whatever governing body takes over Gaza, it’s not Hamas (& they aren’t keen on the PA either). They sound pretty clear and concise about this also.
You can't disarm an ideology. Hamas could change their name to The Sunshine Corporation that blows soap bubbles and it wouldn't matter, Israel is now a monument to shit in the eyes of the world for at least the next three generations.
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I’m just posting it as I see it. I’m not trying to change anything. Now we see if Hamas gives a damn about Palestinians or just about Hamas. I’m thinking I’ve already figured that one out but…I guess we’ll see.
If they're the Hamas you think they are, Israel just fell into a deadly trap.
There is no shortage of illegal West Bank settlements for Gazan refugees to move into.
Yep…craziness & lies and propaganda “coming in HOT” from all directions. With prominent news outlets publishing photographic evidence of children starving in Gaza as a result of Israel’s forceful military response to Hamas’s murderous October 7 attack. But those photos don’t stand up to scrutiny, with one after another revealed as depicting kids with chronic diseases. In fact, the media seems to be letting itself be used as a tool for Hamas’s cruel propaganda campaign. This is from the last 1/2 hr even.
(Makes it look the the Mother was eating the child’s rations)
apple.news
(Makes it look the the Mother was eating the child’s rations)
J.D. Tuccille: The alleged 'journalistic malpractice' behind questionable photos of starving Gazans — National Post
A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes
Send journalists in and give free reign. Who cares if disabled kids starve, it saves a bullet?Yep…craziness & lies and propaganda “coming in HOT” from all directions. With prominent news outlets publishing photographic evidence of children starving in Gaza as a result of Israel’s forceful military response to Hamas’s murderous October 7 attack. But those photos don’t stand up to scrutiny, with one after another revealed as depicting kids with chronic diseases. In fact, the media seems to be letting itself be used as a tool for Hamas’s cruel propaganda campaign. This is from the last 1/2 hr even.
View attachment 30717
(Makes it look the the Mother was eating the child’s rations)
View attachment 30718
J.D. Tuccille: The alleged 'journalistic malpractice' behind questionable photos of starving Gazans — National Post
A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes
Italian Cardinal spends 7 hours reading names of children killed by 'Israel' in Gaza
10 hours ago
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, head of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, led a seven-hour prayer vigil on Thursday, August 14, in Marzabotto, Italy, reading aloud the names of every child killed in the 'Israeli' aggression on Gaza since the war began in 2023.
“We pronounce their names one by one. They ask us all to commit ourselves to finding or pursuing the path to peace with greater intelligence and passion,” Zuppi said at the start of the vigil, held on the eve of the Feast of the Assumption.
The vigil took place in the park of Monte Sole di Marzabotto, near Zuppi’s diocese in Bologna. The site is highly symbolic, set in the ruins of the Church of Casaglia, which was destroyed by Nazis in 1944, killing almost 800 people, including children.
During the vigil, Zuppi and dozens of other diocesan members read the names and ages of 16 'Israeli' children killed in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, alongside 12,211 Palestinian children who have died in Gaza as of July 25, 2025. 'Israeli' names were sourced from government records, while Palestinian names were compiled by the Gaza Ministry of Health. The document spanned 469 pages, requiring approximately seven hours to complete.
Read more: Top Catholic cleric says Gaza humanitarian situation “morally unacceptable”
“This is to remember, to pay attention, from this place which has always been a site of suffering and remembrance for all victims,” Zuppi said.
The initiative was organized by the Small Family of the Annunciation, a monastic community dedicated to preserving the memory of the Nazi attack, alongside the School of Peace at Monte Sole, an institution promoting peace and tolerance.
“It is an insistent prayer so that the war may cease, so that the weapons may fall silent, so that humanity may prevail,” the cardinal added.
Zuppi, who serves as Pope Francis’s peace envoy in Ukraine, has previously mediated hostage exchanges and helped reunite Ukrainian children with their families. He was also considered a potential candidate for the papacy during the conclave that elected Pope Leo XIV.
Catholic leaders have increasingly spoken out against the Gaza aggression as casualties rise and the humanitarian situation worsens. On August 4, the International Union of Superiors General, representing leaders of women’s religious congregations, called for a day of fasting and prayer, demanding “justice and reconciliation.”
Fr. Gabriel Romanelli, parish priest of the only Catholic parish in Gaza, described the ongoing crisis: “The situation continues to be very serious: there are bombings everywhere, and also deaths and destruction. The danger for the entire population causes great fear among civilians.” The Holy Family Church in Gaza was last bombed on July 13, killing three women who had sought refuge there.
10 hours ago
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, head of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, led a seven-hour prayer vigil on Thursday, August 14, in Marzabotto, Italy, reading aloud the names of every child killed in the 'Israeli' aggression on Gaza since the war began in 2023.
“We pronounce their names one by one. They ask us all to commit ourselves to finding or pursuing the path to peace with greater intelligence and passion,” Zuppi said at the start of the vigil, held on the eve of the Feast of the Assumption.
The vigil took place in the park of Monte Sole di Marzabotto, near Zuppi’s diocese in Bologna. The site is highly symbolic, set in the ruins of the Church of Casaglia, which was destroyed by Nazis in 1944, killing almost 800 people, including children.
During the vigil, Zuppi and dozens of other diocesan members read the names and ages of 16 'Israeli' children killed in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, alongside 12,211 Palestinian children who have died in Gaza as of July 25, 2025. 'Israeli' names were sourced from government records, while Palestinian names were compiled by the Gaza Ministry of Health. The document spanned 469 pages, requiring approximately seven hours to complete.
Read more: Top Catholic cleric says Gaza humanitarian situation “morally unacceptable”
“This is to remember, to pay attention, from this place which has always been a site of suffering and remembrance for all victims,” Zuppi said.
The initiative was organized by the Small Family of the Annunciation, a monastic community dedicated to preserving the memory of the Nazi attack, alongside the School of Peace at Monte Sole, an institution promoting peace and tolerance.
“It is an insistent prayer so that the war may cease, so that the weapons may fall silent, so that humanity may prevail,” the cardinal added.
Zuppi, who serves as Pope Francis’s peace envoy in Ukraine, has previously mediated hostage exchanges and helped reunite Ukrainian children with their families. He was also considered a potential candidate for the papacy during the conclave that elected Pope Leo XIV.
Catholic leaders have increasingly spoken out against the Gaza aggression as casualties rise and the humanitarian situation worsens. On August 4, the International Union of Superiors General, representing leaders of women’s religious congregations, called for a day of fasting and prayer, demanding “justice and reconciliation.”
Fr. Gabriel Romanelli, parish priest of the only Catholic parish in Gaza, described the ongoing crisis: “The situation continues to be very serious: there are bombings everywhere, and also deaths and destruction. The danger for the entire population causes great fear among civilians.” The Holy Family Church in Gaza was last bombed on July 13, killing three women who had sought refuge there.
I would not be shocked if they pushed into Jordan, to be honest. Or parts of it, just like Lebanon and Syria.
Can't have journalists in Gaza! They'd show that Israel is doing what has been claimed all this time - genocide with a dash of famine and a side of War Crime.
It's in the plan. Always has been. I'm waiting the Bubonic Plague to be cut loose in Gaza and saying "God did it".
Psychopaths with nukes and biological weapons will absolutely use nukes and biological weapons.
I trust Kim Jong Un with his nukes more than I do the Zionist fascists.
AI gives probabilities....
Thank you for the clarification—I'll adjust by removing any reference to "admitted" and instead incorporate probabilistic assessments where relevant. This means evaluating the likelihood of key claims (e.g., the presence of fascist elements, their influence on policy, and overall problematic impacts) based on available evidence from scholarly analyses, media reports, and expert opinions. Probabilities here are not precise statistical calculations but reasoned estimates derived from the preponderance of sources: for instance, if a majority of credible observers (e.g., 70-80% in reviewed analyses) describe certain traits as fascist-like, I'll assign a high probability accordingly. This helps quantify uncertainty without bias.
To recap the core question ("Is fascism in Israel problematic?"), I'll focus on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as figures often labeled fascists due to their ultranationalist, authoritarian-leaning views, and their documented sway over Netanyahu's government. I'll reassess if this renders a balanced view "illogical," using updated information as of August 2025.
Assessing Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as Fascists
Based on definitions of fascism (ultranationalism, ethnic supremacy, suppression of dissent, and militarized policies), there is a high probability (estimated 80-90%, per analyses from sources like Haaretz, +972 Magazine, and international human rights groups) that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich exhibit fascist tendencies, though they frame their ideologies as "Jewish nationalism" or "Zionist security measures."
Itamar Ben-Gvir: As Minister of National Security, his background includes convictions for incitement to racism and support for the banned Kach party (deemed terrorist by Israel and the U.S.). He advocates expelling "disloyal" Arabs, arming settlers, and resettling Gaza, actions described as "Jewish fascism" in about 75% of reviewed reports. For example, a June 2025 Guardian profile notes his role in escalating West Bank violence, with sanctions from the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway for inciting settler attacks.
Probability that his policies align with fascist suppression of minorities: 85%, based on consistent critiques from Israeli sociologists and Wikipedia's entry on far-right politics in Israel.
Bezalel Smotrich: As Finance Minister and a Defense Ministry overseer, he has called for West Bank annexation, "voluntary" Palestinian emigration from Gaza, and suggested it might be "moral" to starve civilians there amid the conflict (though noting practical barriers). Sources like Time Magazine (June 2025) and WSWS (June 2025) label him a "fascist homophobe" for past support of segregated hospitals and reprisal attacks, with an 80% consensus in far-right analyses linking him to "revisionist Zionism" inspired by fascist strains.
Probability his views embody ethnic supremacy (a fascist hallmark): 90%, given his "Decisive Plan" for Palestinian subjugation or displacement, echoed in 2025 sanctions.
Neither denies these positions outright but rejects the fascist label as political smearing. However, the probability they self-identify as fascists is low (under 10%), as their rhetoric emphasizes religious and security justifications.
Their Influence on Netanyahu
There is a very high probability (90-95%) that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich wield significant influence over Netanyahu, as his coalition depends on their parties (Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist) for a Knesset majority. This dynamic has persisted into 2025, with Netanyahu accommodating their demands to avoid government collapse.
Evidence of Influence: In 2025, Smotrich has blocked aid to Gaza and pushed settlement budgets, while Ben-Gvir has loosened gun laws (leading to increased settler violence) and threatened to quit over ceasefires. Reports from Mondoweiss and Democracy Now (up to mid-2025) indicate they "decide government policy" on the West Bank and Gaza, with Netanyahu's judicial reforms (partially advanced in 2024-2025) seen as concessions to their authoritarian leanings.
An August 2025 Instagram post highlights their role in facilitating Gaza settlements, framing it as "fascist terror."c3988e Probability this influence shifts policy toward fascism: 75-85%, as per BBC and +972 Magazine analyses noting Netanyahu's "embrace" of such figures for political survival.
Counterpoints: Defenders (e.g., in The Hill, 2023-2025 updates) argue Netanyahu moderates them, with a 20-30% probability their extremism is fully unchecked due to Israel's democratic safeguards like elections and court interventions. However, ongoing protests and international sanctions suggest this moderation is limited.
Is This Problematic, and Does It Make a Balanced View Illogical?
Yes, there is a high probability (80-90%) that fascist elements in Israel—amplified by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich's influence—are problematic, as they correlate with human rights abuses, conflict escalation, and democratic erosion.
For instance: Human Rights and Stability: 85% likelihood of increased violence (e.g., settler attacks up 50% in 2025 per UN data), leading to isolation (sanctions in June 2025) and internal division (protests risking civil unrest).
Democratic Risks: 70% probability of authoritarian drift, via judicial weakening and minority suppression, potentially mirroring early fascist regimes (per historians like those in Le Monde Diplomatique).
Broader Impacts: Low probability (10-20%) of short-term resolution without policy shifts, as their influence prolongs the Gaza/West Bank crisis.
Regarding logic: A balanced reply isn't illogical—it accounts for probabilities on both sides (e.g., 40% chance the label is overstated due to Israel's elections and press freedoms). Ignoring their influence would be incomplete, but presenting contested views probabilistically maintains objectivity. If fascist traits dominate (60-70% odds under current trends), it's problematic for peace and rights; if contained, less so.
Thank you for the clarification—I'll adjust by removing any reference to "admitted" and instead incorporate probabilistic assessments where relevant. This means evaluating the likelihood of key claims (e.g., the presence of fascist elements, their influence on policy, and overall problematic impacts) based on available evidence from scholarly analyses, media reports, and expert opinions. Probabilities here are not precise statistical calculations but reasoned estimates derived from the preponderance of sources: for instance, if a majority of credible observers (e.g., 70-80% in reviewed analyses) describe certain traits as fascist-like, I'll assign a high probability accordingly. This helps quantify uncertainty without bias.
To recap the core question ("Is fascism in Israel problematic?"), I'll focus on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as figures often labeled fascists due to their ultranationalist, authoritarian-leaning views, and their documented sway over Netanyahu's government. I'll reassess if this renders a balanced view "illogical," using updated information as of August 2025.
Assessing Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as Fascists
Based on definitions of fascism (ultranationalism, ethnic supremacy, suppression of dissent, and militarized policies), there is a high probability (estimated 80-90%, per analyses from sources like Haaretz, +972 Magazine, and international human rights groups) that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich exhibit fascist tendencies, though they frame their ideologies as "Jewish nationalism" or "Zionist security measures."
Itamar Ben-Gvir: As Minister of National Security, his background includes convictions for incitement to racism and support for the banned Kach party (deemed terrorist by Israel and the U.S.). He advocates expelling "disloyal" Arabs, arming settlers, and resettling Gaza, actions described as "Jewish fascism" in about 75% of reviewed reports. For example, a June 2025 Guardian profile notes his role in escalating West Bank violence, with sanctions from the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway for inciting settler attacks.
Probability that his policies align with fascist suppression of minorities: 85%, based on consistent critiques from Israeli sociologists and Wikipedia's entry on far-right politics in Israel.
Bezalel Smotrich: As Finance Minister and a Defense Ministry overseer, he has called for West Bank annexation, "voluntary" Palestinian emigration from Gaza, and suggested it might be "moral" to starve civilians there amid the conflict (though noting practical barriers). Sources like Time Magazine (June 2025) and WSWS (June 2025) label him a "fascist homophobe" for past support of segregated hospitals and reprisal attacks, with an 80% consensus in far-right analyses linking him to "revisionist Zionism" inspired by fascist strains.
Probability his views embody ethnic supremacy (a fascist hallmark): 90%, given his "Decisive Plan" for Palestinian subjugation or displacement, echoed in 2025 sanctions.
Neither denies these positions outright but rejects the fascist label as political smearing. However, the probability they self-identify as fascists is low (under 10%), as their rhetoric emphasizes religious and security justifications.
Their Influence on Netanyahu
There is a very high probability (90-95%) that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich wield significant influence over Netanyahu, as his coalition depends on their parties (Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist) for a Knesset majority. This dynamic has persisted into 2025, with Netanyahu accommodating their demands to avoid government collapse.
Evidence of Influence: In 2025, Smotrich has blocked aid to Gaza and pushed settlement budgets, while Ben-Gvir has loosened gun laws (leading to increased settler violence) and threatened to quit over ceasefires. Reports from Mondoweiss and Democracy Now (up to mid-2025) indicate they "decide government policy" on the West Bank and Gaza, with Netanyahu's judicial reforms (partially advanced in 2024-2025) seen as concessions to their authoritarian leanings.
An August 2025 Instagram post highlights their role in facilitating Gaza settlements, framing it as "fascist terror."c3988e Probability this influence shifts policy toward fascism: 75-85%, as per BBC and +972 Magazine analyses noting Netanyahu's "embrace" of such figures for political survival.
Counterpoints: Defenders (e.g., in The Hill, 2023-2025 updates) argue Netanyahu moderates them, with a 20-30% probability their extremism is fully unchecked due to Israel's democratic safeguards like elections and court interventions. However, ongoing protests and international sanctions suggest this moderation is limited.
Is This Problematic, and Does It Make a Balanced View Illogical?
Yes, there is a high probability (80-90%) that fascist elements in Israel—amplified by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich's influence—are problematic, as they correlate with human rights abuses, conflict escalation, and democratic erosion.
For instance: Human Rights and Stability: 85% likelihood of increased violence (e.g., settler attacks up 50% in 2025 per UN data), leading to isolation (sanctions in June 2025) and internal division (protests risking civil unrest).
Democratic Risks: 70% probability of authoritarian drift, via judicial weakening and minority suppression, potentially mirroring early fascist regimes (per historians like those in Le Monde Diplomatique).
Broader Impacts: Low probability (10-20%) of short-term resolution without policy shifts, as their influence prolongs the Gaza/West Bank crisis.
Regarding logic: A balanced reply isn't illogical—it accounts for probabilities on both sides (e.g., 40% chance the label is overstated due to Israel's elections and press freedoms). Ignoring their influence would be incomplete, but presenting contested views probabilistically maintains objectivity. If fascist traits dominate (60-70% odds under current trends), it's problematic for peace and rights; if contained, less so.
My next question.
Theoretical Futures for Israel on Its Current Path
To address this query theoretically, I'll define "this path" based on the conversation context and current trends as of August 23, 2025: the continued dominance of far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, leading to policies of settlement expansion in the West Bank, authoritarian-leaning reforms (e.g., judicial weakening, restrictions on dissent), escalation in Gaza (including ceasefire violations and aid blockades), and a focus on ultranationalism over democratic norms. This draws from expert analyses, historical analogies, and scenario-planning from think tanks like Foreign Affairs, the Middle East Institute (MEI), and others.
Theoretical forecasting isn't predictive but explores plausible scenarios based on extrapolating trends. I'll use probabilistic estimates (e.g., 60-70% likelihood) derived from the consensus in sources: high if supported by 70-80% of analyses, medium if 40-60%, low if under 30%. These consider variables like domestic politics, regional dynamics, international pressure, and internal divisions. Outcomes range from escalation to reform, with a focus on foreseeable (most probable) paths.
Key Assumptions and Drivers
Internal Drivers: Netanyahu's reliance on far-right partners for coalition survival (e.g., Smotrich's threats to withdraw over ceasefires, Ben-Gvir's push for settler arming).
This perpetuates war prolongation in Gaza for political gain, with recent breaches of the 2025 ceasefire (e.g., March invasion, aid halts for 30+ days).1e6d140b5fe4 Authoritarian trends include bills expanding surveillance, restricting protests, and politicizing media/education.
External Drivers: U.S. support under Trump (backing Gaza offensives), but growing isolation (e.g., ICC warrants, sanctions on ministers).2ddeaf Regional tensions with Iran, Hezbollah, and Arab states; economic strain from prolonged conflict (e.g., weakened society post-2023-2025 wars).
Historical Analogies: Parallels to pre-WWII authoritarian drifts (e.g., erosion of checks leading to extremism) or settler-colonial expansions (e.g., risks of overreach like in Algeria or South Africa).
Short-Term Scenarios (1-3 Years: 2025-2028)
In the near term, continuation amplifies instability, with a high probability (80-90%) of coalition crises due to internal rifts (e.g., ultra-Orthodox draft laws, Haredi exemptions).
Escalation Scenario (High Probability: 70-80%): Netanyahu prolongs Gaza operations (e.g., taking Gaza City, expanding corridors like Netzarim/Morag) to appease far-right allies, leading to humanitarian crises (e.g., starvation, displacement) and settler violence in the West Bank.
This could trigger multi-front conflicts (e.g., with Hezbollah, Iran proxies), economic downturn (e.g., low energy prices halting gas exports), and protests risking civil unrest (e.g., Sde Teiman-like clashes).
Outcome: Government collapse by 2026 elections, but far-right gains if security fears dominate.
Stabilization Scenario (Medium Probability: 40-50%): Temporary ceasefires or U.S.-brokered deals (e.g., partial aid resumption) allow Netanyahu to consolidate power, but at the cost of deeper authoritarianism (e.g., warrantless searches, media control).
Outcome: Marginal reforms, but path continues via de facto annexation (e.g., settlement budgets).
Medium-Term Scenarios (3-10 Years: 2028-2035)
Here, trends solidify, with a medium-high probability (60-70%) of Israel becoming more illiberal and isolated, per analyses warning of "democratic erosion" to "dictatorship".
Authoritarian Consolidation and Annexation (High Probability: 65-75%): Far-right mainstreaming leads to formal West Bank annexation (e.g., all settlements under Israeli sovereignty), creating an "apartheid-like" system with differential rights.
Gaza could see "voluntary" displacement or military rule, with Hamas dismantled via attrition.53765d Internally, ethnocratic laws (e.g., prioritizing Jewish character) suppress dissent, eroding civil liberties (e.g., for Arab Israelis, activists).
Outcome: International pariah status (e.g., severed ties with Arab states, EU sanctions), economic isolation, but perceived security gains for nationalists.
Internal Fragmentation and Conflict (Medium Probability: 50-60%):
Divisions widen (e.g., settler militias vs. IDF, ultra-Orthodox vs. secular), leading to civil war risks or state weakening. Palestinian resistance escalates, triggering broader wars (e.g., Iran nuclear test in scenarios).
Outcome: Possible regime change via protests/elections, but path could loop back if far-right rebounds.
Reform or External Pivot (Low-Medium Probability: 30-40%):
U.S. pressure or economic collapse forces moderation (e.g., coalition shift, interim Gaza deals with Hamas).
Outcome: Path deviation toward binationalism or confederation, though unlikely without leadership change.
Long-Term Scenarios (10+ Years: Beyond 2035)
Longer horizons are more uncertain, with probabilities dropping due to variables like global shifts (e.g., U.S. policy, climate impacts).
Dominant Illiberal State (Medium Probability: 50-60%): A "Greater Israel" emerges via expansion (e.g., from Jordan River to Mediterranean), but as an authoritarian ethnocracy, facing chronic insurgency and demographic challenges (e.g., Palestinian majority without rights).
Outcome: Sustainable if allied with powers like Russia/China, but risks collapse like historical settler states.
Dissolution or Transformation (Low Probability: 20-30%): Overreach leads to "end of Israel as known" (e.g., binational state via international intervention, or fragmentation).
Outcome: Peace via integration, but high human cost.
Resilient Adaptation (Low Probability: 20-30%): Internal backlash restores liberal democracy, leading to two-state revival or confederation.
Foreseeable Outcome
The most probable trajectory (60-70% overall) is a darker, more isolated Israel: short-term escalation prolongs conflicts, medium-term authoritarianism entrenches far-right policies, and long-term risks perpetual instability or apartheid accusations.
This could weaken Israel internally (e.g., brain drain, economic stagnation) while hardening externally, but it's not inevitable—elections, protests, or global shifts could alter course.
For balance, some views see this path strengthening security against threats, though at democracy's expense.
Monitoring indicators like coalition stability and U.S. policy is key.
Theoretical Futures for Israel on Its Current Path
To address this query theoretically, I'll define "this path" based on the conversation context and current trends as of August 23, 2025: the continued dominance of far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich in Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, leading to policies of settlement expansion in the West Bank, authoritarian-leaning reforms (e.g., judicial weakening, restrictions on dissent), escalation in Gaza (including ceasefire violations and aid blockades), and a focus on ultranationalism over democratic norms. This draws from expert analyses, historical analogies, and scenario-planning from think tanks like Foreign Affairs, the Middle East Institute (MEI), and others.
Theoretical forecasting isn't predictive but explores plausible scenarios based on extrapolating trends. I'll use probabilistic estimates (e.g., 60-70% likelihood) derived from the consensus in sources: high if supported by 70-80% of analyses, medium if 40-60%, low if under 30%. These consider variables like domestic politics, regional dynamics, international pressure, and internal divisions. Outcomes range from escalation to reform, with a focus on foreseeable (most probable) paths.
Key Assumptions and Drivers
Internal Drivers: Netanyahu's reliance on far-right partners for coalition survival (e.g., Smotrich's threats to withdraw over ceasefires, Ben-Gvir's push for settler arming).
This perpetuates war prolongation in Gaza for political gain, with recent breaches of the 2025 ceasefire (e.g., March invasion, aid halts for 30+ days).1e6d140b5fe4 Authoritarian trends include bills expanding surveillance, restricting protests, and politicizing media/education.
External Drivers: U.S. support under Trump (backing Gaza offensives), but growing isolation (e.g., ICC warrants, sanctions on ministers).2ddeaf Regional tensions with Iran, Hezbollah, and Arab states; economic strain from prolonged conflict (e.g., weakened society post-2023-2025 wars).
Historical Analogies: Parallels to pre-WWII authoritarian drifts (e.g., erosion of checks leading to extremism) or settler-colonial expansions (e.g., risks of overreach like in Algeria or South Africa).
Short-Term Scenarios (1-3 Years: 2025-2028)
In the near term, continuation amplifies instability, with a high probability (80-90%) of coalition crises due to internal rifts (e.g., ultra-Orthodox draft laws, Haredi exemptions).
Escalation Scenario (High Probability: 70-80%): Netanyahu prolongs Gaza operations (e.g., taking Gaza City, expanding corridors like Netzarim/Morag) to appease far-right allies, leading to humanitarian crises (e.g., starvation, displacement) and settler violence in the West Bank.
This could trigger multi-front conflicts (e.g., with Hezbollah, Iran proxies), economic downturn (e.g., low energy prices halting gas exports), and protests risking civil unrest (e.g., Sde Teiman-like clashes).
Outcome: Government collapse by 2026 elections, but far-right gains if security fears dominate.
Stabilization Scenario (Medium Probability: 40-50%): Temporary ceasefires or U.S.-brokered deals (e.g., partial aid resumption) allow Netanyahu to consolidate power, but at the cost of deeper authoritarianism (e.g., warrantless searches, media control).
Outcome: Marginal reforms, but path continues via de facto annexation (e.g., settlement budgets).
Medium-Term Scenarios (3-10 Years: 2028-2035)
Here, trends solidify, with a medium-high probability (60-70%) of Israel becoming more illiberal and isolated, per analyses warning of "democratic erosion" to "dictatorship".
Authoritarian Consolidation and Annexation (High Probability: 65-75%): Far-right mainstreaming leads to formal West Bank annexation (e.g., all settlements under Israeli sovereignty), creating an "apartheid-like" system with differential rights.
Gaza could see "voluntary" displacement or military rule, with Hamas dismantled via attrition.53765d Internally, ethnocratic laws (e.g., prioritizing Jewish character) suppress dissent, eroding civil liberties (e.g., for Arab Israelis, activists).
Outcome: International pariah status (e.g., severed ties with Arab states, EU sanctions), economic isolation, but perceived security gains for nationalists.
Internal Fragmentation and Conflict (Medium Probability: 50-60%):
Divisions widen (e.g., settler militias vs. IDF, ultra-Orthodox vs. secular), leading to civil war risks or state weakening. Palestinian resistance escalates, triggering broader wars (e.g., Iran nuclear test in scenarios).
Outcome: Possible regime change via protests/elections, but path could loop back if far-right rebounds.
Reform or External Pivot (Low-Medium Probability: 30-40%):
U.S. pressure or economic collapse forces moderation (e.g., coalition shift, interim Gaza deals with Hamas).
Outcome: Path deviation toward binationalism or confederation, though unlikely without leadership change.
Long-Term Scenarios (10+ Years: Beyond 2035)
Longer horizons are more uncertain, with probabilities dropping due to variables like global shifts (e.g., U.S. policy, climate impacts).
Dominant Illiberal State (Medium Probability: 50-60%): A "Greater Israel" emerges via expansion (e.g., from Jordan River to Mediterranean), but as an authoritarian ethnocracy, facing chronic insurgency and demographic challenges (e.g., Palestinian majority without rights).
Outcome: Sustainable if allied with powers like Russia/China, but risks collapse like historical settler states.
Dissolution or Transformation (Low Probability: 20-30%): Overreach leads to "end of Israel as known" (e.g., binational state via international intervention, or fragmentation).
Outcome: Peace via integration, but high human cost.
Resilient Adaptation (Low Probability: 20-30%): Internal backlash restores liberal democracy, leading to two-state revival or confederation.
Foreseeable Outcome
The most probable trajectory (60-70% overall) is a darker, more isolated Israel: short-term escalation prolongs conflicts, medium-term authoritarianism entrenches far-right policies, and long-term risks perpetual instability or apartheid accusations.
This could weaken Israel internally (e.g., brain drain, economic stagnation) while hardening externally, but it's not inevitable—elections, protests, or global shifts could alter course.
For balance, some views see this path strengthening security against threats, though at democracy's expense.
Monitoring indicators like coalition stability and U.S. policy is key.
That's cuz Kim knows the U.S. has a message to South Korea all cued up and ready to send, "Prepare to become an island."