COVID-19 'Pandemic'

Blackleaf

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Brexit makes more sense than ever​

If Remain had won, we'd be wrangling over the EU's nightmarish Covid rescue plan​

Peter Franklin

Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

UnHerd
November 19, 2020

I hate to admit it, but the Remainiacs were right. Everything that they said would happen, has happened. The traumatised economy. The emergency budgets. The empty shelves. The closed borders.

Of course, the cause of these misfortunes is Covid-19, not Brexit. And thus the main event of the last few years has become a sideshow in 2020. As a result, the anti-Brexiteers have struggled to promote their narrative. However, with the Brexit negotiations coming to a head, one of their talking points is now bound to be heard — which is that, deal or no deal, we’re leaving the EU at the worst possible time. Who needs an extra set of complications when we’ve got a pandemic to deal with?

It’s a reasonable argument, but one that overlooks the counterfactual. Had the referendum gone the other way our continuing membership of the EU would have caused a different set of complications. Indeed, we’d be in a worse situation than we are now.

If Remain had won in 2016, it’s hard to say who’d be Prime Minister in 2020, but whoever the lucky person, he or she would have had a European nightmare to deal with. Not Brexit, but Britain’s involvement in the EU’s Covid rescue plan.

Consider what actually happened in Europe this year. While every country has suffered, some have suffered more than others. Those trapped by the constraints of the eurozone are in a particular bind — because they can’t devalue their currency or print money. Therefore they need help from their fellow member states.

Just what sort of help (and how much) was the subject of a high-stakes drama back in the spring and summer. Though we barely paid attention to it on this side of the Channel, it was a showdown between the “frugal four” nations (the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden) and the Covid-racked countries of Southern Europe, especially Italy.

Even before the virus, Italy was in dire straits, condemned to stagnation thanks to the eurozone. Covid turned that crisis into an emergency, so something had to be done. The Dutch and their allies, however, were not happy about having to bail out the southerners again — and certainly not in the midst of their own national emergencies. In the end, the French and Germans forced a compromise, but not before Mark Rutte — the Dutch PM — was painted as the cold-hearted villain of the piece.

Now, let’s replay these events — only this time with Britain still in the EU. The frugal four would have been a frugal five — and the chief villain would have been the British PM. Indeed, if we’d been part of these negotiations, an already bitter dispute would have become something much worse — because the Franco-German proposal would have been impossible for Britain to accept.

The actual rescue package consists of €750 billion in grants and loans. The necessary funds are to be borrowed by the European Commission from the money markets, with the liability shared among all EU member states. Thus, assuming a similar package in the no-Brexit scenario, there’d have been two poison pills for the UK.

Firstly, money: we’d be paying tens of billions towards a “recovery fund” whose ultimate purpose is to bail out the eurozone. British eurosceptics have long warned that monetary union is inherently fragile to asymmetric shocks; that’s why everyone from Gordon Brown to Nigel Farage fought so hard to keep us out of the single currency. Yet, without Brexit, there we’d be, paying to prop it up anyway.

The second poison pill is about power: allowing the Commission to borrow hundreds of billions of Euros is a massive step towards fiscal integration, and hence a fully-fledged superstate. Of course, because of Brexit, that’s the EU’s business, not ours. But what if Brexit hadn’t happened and it was our business?

Back in 2016, the Government promised us that the “UK will not be part of a further European political integration” and that no “UK powers can be transferred to the EU in the future without a referendum”. Well, giving Brussels the ability to borrow vast sums of money is about as political as it gets, involving the transfer of national powers to the EU because agreeing to underwrite someone else’s borrowing reduces how much you can borrow in your own name. Thus, had we stayed in, the promise would have been broken — a nation of reluctant Remainers betrayed.

A Conservative Prime Minister would have faced a full-scale party revolt — including Cabinet resignations and backbench defections. Therefore, he or she would have no choice but to block the deal. There’d also be overwhelming pressure from the EU to let the deal through, and as the Greeks can tell you, the masters of the eurozone will do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency. All blackmail options would have been on the table — including an end to Britain’s budgetary rebate.

In other words, an irresistible force would have met an immovable object. And whenever that happens, something breaks — most likely the British Government. In the middle of a pandemic.

Back in the real world, we need to ask whether the rescue package is enough to keep the Italians and others afloat through the brutal recovery period that lies ahead.

The answer is probably not — and, in fact, the cracks are beginning to show. In the run-up to this week’s EU summit, Poland and Hungary are threatening to veto the recovery fund and the entire EU budget. Even if that’s just brinksmanship, there’s a deeper problem.

While the recipient countries are happy to help themselves to the grant component of the fund, they’re not so keen on the loans — because these come with onerous conditions. Instead, the recipients have been borrowing the money they need on the open market, thus circumventing the conditions they object to. They’re able to do this at a low interest rate because of the European Central Bank buying up debt issued by eurozone member states. And so the weaker economies have been filling their boots, which is the sort of thing that got the eurozone into trouble before. The ECB could crack down by cutting off bond purchases. However, this could trigger the sovereign debt crisis the Bank is so desperate to avoid.

It would be easier for Brussels and Frankfurt to keep things under control if any extra money required over-and-above the €750 billion were also to be borrowed and doled out by the European Commission. There’s no immediate proposal for this to happen, but having crossed the fiscal Rubicon once already, the next trip to the money markets will be much easier — and the trip after that. I wouldn’t want to bet my house on this summer’s rescue package being a one-time deal.

Covid has taken all the old imbalances and fragilities in the eurozone and made them worse. Further bail-outs are all but inevitable. Given the new model for raising emergency funds, it’s just as well we’re no longer on the hook.

The words “post-Brexit Britain” conjure up an unfamiliar environment fraught with danger. By voting to leave, we’ve supposedly condemned ourselves to a future full of uncertainty, while our neighbours remain secure within the European Union. But as we’ve seen, the post-Covid world means risk and uncertainty for all.

The only way that any nation can prevail in such circumstances is to stay adaptable. We must react with speed and agility to the risks that we can manage, while reducing our exposure to those that we can’t. Remaining in the EU would have compromised our freedom of action on both counts.

It is not that the EU is completely paralysed. As the recovery fund demonstrates, it is capable of changes of direction — albeit after a protracted period of wrangling. However, when the breakthrough does come it is always in the direction of further integration, of further compromises to national sovereignty. In voting to leave we did not just leave the EU as it was in 2016, but also the EU as it is now becoming.

As a result, we still have the opportunity to make the wise and timely decisions on which our future depends. Of course, that does not mean that we will — because that requires a competent, visionary government.

But at least we will be responsible for our own failings, instead of being made responsible for those of others.

 

spaminator

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Europe becomes first region to surpass 1 million COVID-19 deaths: Reuters tally
Author of the article:Reuters
Reuters
Shaina Ahluwalia and Roshan Abraham
Publishing date:Mar 19, 2021 • 8 hours ago • 2 minute read • comment bubbleJoin the conversation
Health staff attends to a patient at the COVID-19 dedicated ICU unit of the Tras-Os-Montes E Alto Douro Hospital, in Vila Real, Portugal Feb. 22, 2021.
Health staff attends to a patient at the COVID-19 dedicated ICU unit of the Tras-Os-Montes E Alto Douro Hospital, in Vila Real, Portugal Feb. 22, 2021. PHOTO BY VIOLETA SANTOS MOURA /REUTERS
Article content
Coronavirus-related deaths in the European region surpassed 1 million on Friday as vaccination efforts attempt to keep up with new variants causing a third wave of infections that could once again overwhelm hospitals.

Since the pandemic began, at least 37,221,978 infections and 1,000,062 million deaths were reported in the European region, according to a Reuters tally.


The region, which includes 51 countries, has about 35.5% of all coronavirus deaths and 30.5% of all cases in the world. The region includes Russia, the United Kingdom, the 27 members of the European Union and other countries.

The European region has administered about 12 vaccine shots for every 100 people, behind the United States which has administered about 34 doses per 100 people, according to figures from Our World in Data. Israel leads the world in vaccination efforts with about 110 shots given for every 100 individuals. Some vaccines require two doses.

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With the number of EU COVID-19 related deaths above 550,000 and less than a tenth of the population inoculated, European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said the situation was worsening. “We see the crest of a third wave forming in member states, and we know that we need to accelerate the vaccination rates.”

On Wednesday, the European Union threatened to ban exports of COVID-19 vaccines to Britain to safeguard scarce doses for its own citizens.

The number of infections in Europe have started picking up, with France recently seeing its biggest one-day jump in cases since November. The region is currently reporting a million new cases about every six days.

As Germany plans to lift the lockdown and revive its economy, an expert at the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases said on Tuesday that the number of infections is rising exponentially, with the country entering a third wave of the pandemic.


As the European Union looks to meet its summer target of inoculating 70% of adults, at least 13 countries in the bloc have suspended or delayed using AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine after reports of blood coagulation in people who have received the shot.

Countries in eastern Europe, including Russia, remain the worst-affected based on the total number of cases and deaths.

Russia has the highest total number of COVID infections, with over 4.4 million or nearly 12% of all the cases in the region. The country has one of the highest COVID-19 fatality rates in the world on a per capita basis, with about 153 deaths per 100,0000 residents, behind the United States with 164 deaths for every 100,000 people.

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While the official death toll in Russia stands at 94,267, at least 221,534 have perished due to the disease, according to a Reuters calculation which includes deaths reported by the country’s Rosstat statistics agency.

Italy became the third country in Europe to exceed more than 100,000 deaths last week. Prime Minister Mario Draghi warned that the situation would worsen again with a jump in hospitalizations.

The World Health Organization appealed to the governments not to pause vaccination campaigns, while the European Medicines Agency has said that the number of thromboembolic events in vaccinated people is no higher than the number seen in the general population.
 

JLM

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Nov 27, 2008
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Vernon, B.C.
60+, first come first served in Regina. Weeks ago if you lived in the north.

Did BC shit the bed?
I'm in no huge panic, my bro in law 73 with a multitude of life threatening issues still doesn't qualify, I'll likely wait until he gets his along with hundreds of others in far worse shape than I'm. I can still walk 3 miles up hill. :)
 

Danbones

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Sep 23, 2015
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US Funded Virus Research and Used Outbreak Against Us​

STORY AT-A-GLANCE​

  • The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) funded risky gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology as recently as 2019

  • Two U.S. individuals implicated in funding and researching bat coronaviruses with human infection potential are Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIAID, and Peter Daszak, Ph.D. Both have also publicly dismissed the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 originating in a lab and have worked to suppress such lines of inquiry

  • As early as March 2020, Fauci knew that up to 90% of positive PCR tests were false positives, yet he said and did nothing. Instead, he fueled the flames of fearmongering, perpetuating the myth that we were in a lethal pandemic

  • The World Health Organization’s commission charged with the investigation of SARS-CoV-2’s origin has dismissed the lab-origin theory. In response, two dozen scientists and policy experts are calling for a truly independent investigation into the virus’ origin

  • Key pieces of research that supports the lab-origin theory — by presenting a highly credible theory for how the virus became so highly adapted for human infection — are coronavirus studies done on mice genetically engineered to express the human ACE2 receptor


Waddya know: What some of us have been pointing out for some time is now a BOMBSHELL REPORT IN NEWSWEEK.
;)
Go figgah!
 

Blackleaf

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Oct 9, 2004
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CHILD ABUSE

In some countries, children are being forced to wear masks at school despite them causing physical harm.

Meanwhile, in Sweden a child was sent home from school for WEARING a mask.

********

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Has the last year been a massive IQ test?

 
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Blackleaf

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Oct 9, 2004
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Covid-19: Half of UK adults receive first vaccine dose​

BBC News
Saturday 20th March 2021

Royal Navy personnel prepare to give vaccines to the public at a coronavirus vaccination centre set up at Bath Racecourse


Half of all UK adults have now received a first dose of a coronavirus vaccine, the health secretary has announced.

Matt Hancock said the 26,853,407 first doses given since 8 December marked a "phenomenal achievement".

The 711,156 combined first and second doses received on Friday made it a record day for Covid vaccinations.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was one of those to receive a first dose on Friday, with all over-50s now eligible, also hailed the landmark.

Some 2,132,551 people have also received their second dose of a vaccine, government figures show.

Another 96 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test have also been recorded in the UK, as have a further 5,587 cases.

'Mammoth efforts'​

"Vaccinating over half of all adults is a phenomenal achievement and is testament to the mammoth efforts of the NHS, GPs, volunteers, local authorities and civil servants in every corner of the UK," said Mr Hancock.

The news comes after the government confirmed a shipment of about five million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab would be delayed, resulting in an expected reduction in the number of first doses - including for the under-50s - given during April.

Meanwhile, European countries, including France, Germany and Italy, have begun offering the Oxford jab again after a pause over safety fears.

Mr Hancock said he was "absolutely delighted" to reveal the UK had reached the vaccination milestone.

Covid vaccines chart


He added: "It's a huge success and I want to say many, many thanks to all those involved, including the half of all adults who have come forward."

Mr Johnson - who received his first dose on Friday - added he was "immensely proud of the progress we have made so far in rolling out vaccinations".

"There is still further to go and I encourage everyone to take up the offer when asked to do so," he said.

 

Blackleaf

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ITV Mega 💋 FAIL 🤦‍♂️ Ant & Dec 🤗 Cat Deeley LIVE Hug x2 Shame 🤬 It’s OK For Luvvies...​

Kissing and no social distancing on Ant and Dec's live Saturday Night Takeaway last night

 

Blackleaf

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Oct 9, 2004
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Steve Baker Calls Out Labour & The SNP...... Jonathan Ashworth Proves Him Right Instantly​

 

Blackleaf

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EU doubles down on threat to block Covid vaccine exports to the UK insisting 'everything is on the table' and the bloc is focused on 'protecting our citizens'. British ministers warn 'the world is watching'

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The EU today doubled down on its threat to block Covid vaccine exports to the UK as the British Government warned Brussels that 'the world is watching'. European Commissioner for financial services Mairead McGuinness said 'everything is on the table' and the EU's focus is on 'protecting our citizens'. She also said there is a need for both sides to 'calm down' amid the escalating war of words over vaccine supply but her decision to repeat Ursula von der Leyen's threat is unlikely to dampen tensions. It came as Defence Secretary Ben Wallace warned Brussels that going ahead with an export ban would 'damage the EU's reputation globally'. He said the EU is 'under tremendous political pressure' because of its botched vaccine rollout and insisted 'the rest of the world is looking at the Commission about how it conducts itself'.
 

Blackleaf

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MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: The EU elite's seething resentment at Britain's success hurts them more than us and does no one any good​

By Mail on Sunday Comment for the Daily Mail
21 Mar 2021

The grotesque behaviour of EU governments and leaders over the Oxford vaccine has gone beyond all limits of reason and civilised action.

First, they attacked its usefulness. Then they cast doubts on its safety. Now they seek to grab hold of supplies, and so slow down its distribution in one of the few countries that has welcomed and used it widely and effectively.

The worryingly erratic EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, has previously tried and failed to block British imports of the vaccine by improper use of the UK-Irish border. She now seeks to use European machinery to grab control of vaccine production and distribution at source.

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While independent Britain, moving at its own fastest speed, did superbly, the EU, like a limping convoy, lurches on at the pace of the slowest

She has suggested near- Communist methods, seizing factories, banning exports and over-riding patents. And all this goes on while more than seven million doses of the Oxford jab lie unused in European storehouses, thanks mainly to stupid scare stories.

This behaviour makes a dog in the manger appear reasonable and logical. It looks even more nonsensical as the European continent appears to be suffering a ‘third wave’ of Covid, an outbreak which would certainly be less harmful, and might have been avoided altogether, if the nations of the European Superstate had acted wisely in concert to vaccinate as widely as possible, starting with the most vulnerable.

As it is, the EU nations’ low immunisation rates make the risk far greater and fears of where this might lead have triggered a severe new lockdown in France. More will probably follow.

For weeks, various European presidential palaces and chancelleries have emitted ridiculous statements about the AstraZeneca Covid inoculation, developed in the UK. France’s President Emmanuel Macron pronounced – on the basis of nothing – that it was ‘almost ineffective’ in the over-65s. Now his country suffers the consequences of low take-up. Regulators in Germany and Italy made similar absurd suggestions.

These claims were eventually withdrawn for the good reason that they had no substance. But now the AZ immunisation is under attack for an alleged, and tenuous, link with blood clotting. Regulators in four Nordic countries last week suspended approval of the Oxford jab, despite the green light given to the vaccine by their own European Medicines Agency and the World Health Organisation.

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Precisely because we are independent, Britain will cope with anything they can throw at us. If our supplies are blocked we will surely make our own extra vaccines to fill the gap. By behaving in this way they merely do more damage to themselves

Such pronouncements by powerful and responsible people do permanent damage. The public, in some cases already fearful or at least nervous of vaccinations thanks to past controversies or crank-run internet campaigns, are gravely worried by them.

A lie or an error, or a stupid public statement, can be all the way round the worldwide web before the truth has booted up its computer. Continental leaders may just be pandering to the fears of their own voters. But the effects of their pandering spread far wider, and reach these shores too.

The Mail on Sunday’s Health team this week report a worrying development in this country where up till now the vaccine has been overwhelmingly welcomed.

Worried citizens ask at vaccination clinics for the Pfizer jab and, if told they cannot have it, walk away. Others simply cancel or do not make appointments in the first place.

This is tragic for those involved who may fall ill later on, because a jab would have saved them. It is also tragic for the Health Service, which may be forced to treat them when they could have avoided being ill, so needlessly using scarce resources.

And it is tragic for the whole country, as our progress towards liberation from lockdowns and regimentation is slowed and perhaps halted. Careless talk costs lives, and damages our freedom.

The pronouncements of powerful leaders and major agencies can affect the minds of ordinary citizens, especially in communities where suspicion of vaccines is common. People still trust governments to a surprising extent. In moments of uncertainty or fear, the words of those in authority can have a surprising and lasting effect.

Why on earth has this happened? Why does a politician who failed in her own nation, as Frau von der Leyen did, have any influence over events in this country at all?

First, let us record the UK’s astonishing achievement, so huge and so smoothly managed that it is too easy to forget its magnitude and quality. Our scientists developed, in Oxford, a vaccine that is easily stored and transported and has proved straightforward to manufacture in giant quantities.

Our Government, by appointing the right people – especially Kate Bingham – and giving them freedom to act, secured the contracts for supply. These have enabled the NHS to ensure uninterrupted availability to million upon million.

As a result, the great majority of those most in danger have had their first immunisations and will soon be getting their second jabs. By mid-February those aged 70 and over, care home residents, healthcare workers and people required to shield – had all been offered immunisation.

As these groups account for nearly 90 per cent of Covid deaths, this greatly reduces the danger from a recurrence of the virus.

By contrast, vaccination levels across the EU are pitifully low, and the supposed enormous buying and negotiating powers of the bloc have not on this occasion helped it to secure supplies. While independent Britain, moving at its own fastest speed, did superbly, the EU, like a limping convoy, lurches on at the pace of the slowest.

The whole episode has shown that the claims made by supporters of the EU – that it is a superior form of government to the old-fashioned nation state – are simply not true.

When the stakes were really high, it failed not just as an organisation but as the protector of its citizens, badly let down at a moment of peril.

What we now see is a shameful outbreak of jealousy, spite and resentment, at a time when adult statesmanship has never been more badly needed.

The EU elite is seething that one of its most important members successfully chose the open sea instead of being confined for ever inside its maze of regulation and interference.

It finds it almost impossible to bear the fact that, in the very first test of independence versus Brussels rule, Britain disproved all the arguments and scare stories used to try to frighten us into voting to remain.

Now, forced into a new round of lockdowns and travel bans by their own failings, they seem much keener to obstruct our success than to correct their mistakes.

Precisely because we are independent, Britain will cope with anything they can throw at us. If our supplies are blocked we will surely make our own extra vaccines to fill the gap. By behaving in this way they merely do more damage to themselves.

Let this be the end of the EU’s spiteful foolishness and resentment. It hurts them far more than it hurts us, and it does no possible good to anyone.

Brexit has happened, and it works. Let us now co-operate together as friends for the common good.