The months when British Columbia could pat itself on the back for dealing with COVID-19 better than nearly any other place in Canada or the entirety of the United States has come to an end.
In the past month, the number of daily active cases in the province has quadrupled from about 10 a day to more than 40. The number of active cases has more than doubled, reaching levels not seen since May. Outbreaks are now widespread enough to require the self-isolation of more than 1,500 British Columbians. There are now more active cases per capita in B.C. than Ontario.
In other words, it's not good.
"The province, back in June and July, was right on the knife edge," said Daniel Coombs, a University of British Columbia mathematician who has been helping the provincial government with its modelling for COVID-19 since the outbreak began.
"It turned out that it didn't take much of a spark ... to ignite a fire."
There remains the possibility B.C. can avoid the type of widespread second outbreak recently seen in many American states. But the rapid increase over the last month is cause for concern — and there's little certainty getting back to the five to 15 daily cases seen in May and June can be attained.
It's young people
The provincial increase over the last month is overwhelmingly concentrated in young people — of the 893 COVID-19 cases recorded in B.C. between July 6 and Aug. 6, two-thirds have been in people under the age of 40. The majority are in their 20s.
By contrast, less than 12 per cent of cases in the last month have been in people over the age of 60.
"'COVID fatigue' does play a role, particularly in things like long weekends where people are just wishing this would be over," said UBC psychiatry professor Steven Taylor, who specializes in the psychology of pandemics. .......More