Australia's record 2013 heat 'virtually impossible' without climate change

Nuggler

kind and gentle
Feb 27, 2006
11,596
141
63
Backwater, Ontario.
$$$$$$$

Meanwhile in Boston...

EEKS !!!
Thas what I'm talkin bout !!
 

Nuggler

kind and gentle
Feb 27, 2006
11,596
141
63
Backwater, Ontario.
Thanks for the chuckles Nuggs! You have a signature style of writing and telling a tale that makes me chuckle... Now, I'll have to refrain from sipping my coffee when I start into one of your posts... Cost of new keyboards is getting prohibitive

In terms of agendas, you're dead right, we all have one or more... With this in mind, most normal folk do not take such extraordinary steps to force their position onto their neighbours.... Not so long ago, it was the JWs that were the only ones that walked that path.... I still close the door on that group, not any differently than I do with this issue

Thanks for that, Capt.
New keyboards are a bitch to buy for sure.
See if your dealer'll sell you Nugg insurance.:lol:
 

EagleSmack

Hall of Fame Member
Feb 16, 2005
44,168
96
48
USA
EEKS !!!
Thas what I'm talkin bout !!

And it is snowing again... and we might get even more snow later this week.

But record snow in Boston is simply weather.. a record heat wave in Australia is global warming.

No wonder why the alarmists are failing world wide.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
117,690
14,377
113
Low Earth Orbit
And it is snowing again... and we might get even more snow later this week.

But record snow in Boston is simply weather.. a record heat wave in Australia is global warming.

No wonder why the alarmists are failing world wide.

Piss poor marketing.
 

Zipperfish

House Member
Apr 12, 2013
3,688
0
36
Vancouver
Where the record sea temp link?

http://pamola.um.maine.edu/DailySum...ailySummary/GFS-025deg_WORLD-CED_SST_anom.png




Global Analysis - Annual 2014 | State of the Climate | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)


The 2014 global average ocean temperature was also record high, at 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average of 16.1°C (60.9°F), breaking the previous records of 1998 and 2003 by 0.05°C (0.09°F). Notably, ENSO-neutral conditions were present during all of 2014.
 

Zipperfish

House Member
Apr 12, 2013
3,688
0
36
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Record warm sea temps should be bringing drought ending rain to CA and TX and the other Midwest states. Why for no?

Kinda chilly off of Chile.

There was some relief for California this year. They were hoping for a more pronounced El Nino.
 

waldo

House Member
Oct 19, 2009
3,042
0
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There was some relief for California this year. They were hoping for a more pronounced El Nino.

see "Triple R, the..... Ridiculously Resilient Ridge"
The culprit: a persistent, strong region of high pressure anchored over the northeastern Pacific/West Coast of North America has deflected Pacific storm systems to the north of California–just like last year. In fact, the similarity of the large-scale atmospheric wave pattern between January 2014 and January 2015 is extraordinary. While the longevity of the current dry spell still isn’t quite what it was last year–thanks to our December wet spell–the Warm West/Cool East atmospheric pattern that has been quite common in recent winters appears to once again be repeating itself this year.
Causes of California drought linked to climate change, Stanford scientists say
Using the Triple R as a benchmark, the group compared geopotential heights – an atmospheric property related to pressure – between two sets of climate model experiments. One set mirrored the present climate, in which the atmosphere is growing increasingly warm due to human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In the other set of experiments, greenhouse gases were kept at a level similar to those that existed just prior to the Industrial Revolution.

The interdisciplinary research team found that the extreme geopotential heights associated with the Triple R in 2013 were at least three times as likely to occur in the present climate as in the preindustrial climate. They also found that such extreme values are consistently tied to unusually low precipitation in California and the formation of atmospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific.

"We've demonstrated with high statistical confidence that the large-scale atmospheric conditions, similar to those associated with the Triple R, are far more likely to occur now than in the climate before we emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases," Rajaratnam said.

"In using these advanced statistical techniques to combine climate observations with model simulations, we've been able to better understand the ongoing drought in California," Diffenbaugh added. "This isn't a projection of 100 years in the future. This is an event that is more extreme than any in the observed record, and our research suggests that global warming is playing a role right now."
 

taxslave

Hall of Fame Member
Nov 25, 2008
36,362
4,340
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NEW CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR AUSTRALIA

CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology have released climate change projections for Australia that provide updated national and regional information on how the climate may change to the end of the 21st century.

The projections are the most comprehensive ever released for Australia and have been prepared with an emphasis on informing impact assessment and planning in the natural resource management sector. Material has been drawn from observations and from simulations based on up to 40 global climate models and four scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions during the 21st century.

The 2015 projections provide greater levels of detail and confidence compared to previous projections. Findings are consistent with previous projections research and analysis for Australia, and incorporate an increased knowledge base.

The new climate change projections for Australia are funded by the Department of the Environment through the NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund with co-funding from CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Key findings

Overarching findings

Australia’s climate has already changed.

It has become hotter since 1910, with warming across Australia of 0.9°C
Rainfall has increased in northern Australia since the 1970s and decreased in south-east and south-west Australia
More of Australia’s rain has come from heavy falls and there has been more extreme fire weather in southern and eastern Australia since the 1970s.
Sea levels have risen by approximately 20cm since 1900.
Projections for Australia’s future climate vary regionally and depend on which of the four greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios is considered. Overarching findings include:

Australia’s average temperature will increase and we will experience more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.
Extreme rainfall events that lead to flooding are likely to become more intense.
The number of tropical cyclones is projected to decrease but they may be more intense and reach further south.
Southern and eastern Australia is projected to experience harsher fire weather.
Sea levels will continue to rise throughout the 21st century and beyond.
Oceans around Australia will warm and become more acidic.
Additional findings

Temperature

Australian average temperature has increased by 0.9° C since 1910.
We have seen more hot days and less cold days.
Temperatures will continue to increase over the 21st century.
The extent of those increases will depend on global emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
By late in the century (2090), Australian average temperature is projected to increase by 0.6 to 1.7°C for a low emission scenario, or 2.8 to 5.1°C under a high emission scenario.
Hot days are projected to occur more frequently while there will be fewer frost days.
Rainfall

Winter and spring rainfall in southern Australia is projected to decline while changes in other areas are uncertain.
For the rest of Australia, natural climate variability will predominate over rainfall trends caused by increasing greenhouse gases until 2030. By 2090, a winter rainfall decrease is expected in eastern Australia.
Overall, extreme rain events are projected to become more intense.
This finding is consistent across Australia even in areas where average rainfall is projected to decrease or the average direction of change is uncertain. This is largely due to the ability of a warmer atmosphere to hold more water.
However, the projected reduction in average rainfall in south-west Western Australia may be so strong as to weaken this extreme rainfall tendency.
Drought

The time in drought will increase over southern Australia, with a greater frequency of severe droughts.
The time in drought and the frequency of extreme droughts may increase elsewhere in Australia.
A projected increase in evaporation rates will contribute to a reduction in soil moisture across Australia.
Tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones may occur less often; however they will likely be more intense.
Snow

There will be a decrease in snowfall, an increase in snowmelt and thus reduced snow cover.
Fire Weather

Southern and eastern Australia are projected to experience harsher fire weather, including an increase in the number of days with a ‘severe’ fire danger rating.
Projections for fire weather in northern Australia and inland areas are less certain.
Sea level rise

Sea levels will continue to rise throughout the 21st century and beyond.
Projections of sea level rise for the Australian coastline by late in the century (2090) are comparable to, or slightly larger than, the projected global mean sea level rise of up to 82 cm under a high emission scenario.
A collapse in the marine based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet could make sea level rise projections several tenths of a metre higher by late in the century.


About
I need 87 meters of sea rise to have waterfront property. How long do I have to wait?

see "Triple R, the..... Ridiculously Resilient Ridge"
The culprit: a persistent, strong region of high pressure anchored over the northeastern Pacific/West Coast of North America has deflected Pacific storm systems to the north of California–just like last year. In fact, the similarity of the large-scale atmospheric wave pattern between January 2014 and January 2015 is extraordinary. While the longevity of the current dry spell still isn’t quite what it was last year–thanks to our December wet spell–the Warm West/Cool East atmospheric pattern that has been quite common in recent winters appears to once again be repeating itself this year.
Causes of California drought linked to climate change, Stanford scientists say
Using the Triple R as a benchmark, the group compared geopotential heights – an atmospheric property related to pressure – between two sets of climate model experiments. One set mirrored the present climate, in which the atmosphere is growing increasingly warm due to human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In the other set of experiments, greenhouse gases were kept at a level similar to those that existed just prior to the Industrial Revolution.

The interdisciplinary research team found that the extreme geopotential heights associated with the Triple R in 2013 were at least three times as likely to occur in the present climate as in the preindustrial climate. They also found that such extreme values are consistently tied to unusually low precipitation in California and the formation of atmospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific.

"We've demonstrated with high statistical confidence that the large-scale atmospheric conditions, similar to those associated with the Triple R, are far more likely to occur now than in the climate before we emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases," Rajaratnam said.

"In using these advanced statistical techniques to combine climate observations with model simulations, we've been able to better understand the ongoing drought in California," Diffenbaugh added. "This isn't a projection of 100 years in the future. This is an event that is more extreme than any in the observed record, and our research suggests that global warming is playing a role right now."

Well there you go. Computer models are never wrong.
 

MHz

Time Out
Mar 16, 2007
41,030
43
48
Red Deer AB
$$$$$$$

Meanwhile in Boston...
I was wondering how you were doing. Probably don't want to know about the next storm but it's coming Bet you could be making a lot of money if you had a ski-doo. Stay safe and warm. You have about a week after this little system passes through and then a bid dump by the look of it.

Meanwhile we have to suffer another Chinook, lol. Sorry that isn't really bad news.



I need 87 meters of sea rise to have waterfront property. How long do I have to wait?
About 4 hours after that trench off Japan's east coast collapses.

Global cooling should lower the level of the water. 400ft is the estimate for the last ice-age.
 

DaSleeper

Trolling Hypocrites
May 27, 2007
33,676
1,666
113
Northern Ontario,
I kinda like the word "virtually" in the title It's words like "could", "might", "possibly" and several more that have been used by miracle pills and snake oil salesmen for a long time.....
It's their usual disclaimer.....like the current hiatus...
Only suckers fall for them......