Arctic near ice free in a few years.

R

Redmonton_Rebel

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The ice volume at this years summer minimum is 50% less of what it was just five years ago in 2007.

There was much media attention a couple of weeks ago when this year's sea ice extent minimum broke all records: it was down almost 50 percent from the 1979-2000 average. Little attention, though, accompanied a possibly even more significant figure, released a few days ago: those who run the PIOMAS sea ice volume model at the Polar Research Center showed the 2012 sea ice volume minimum was down almost 50 percent not from decades ago -- but from 2007! That's right: the volume of arctic sea ice this September minimum was probably about half of what it was, just back in 2007.
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Almost certainly the Arctic will be mostly ice free within a few years with a small area to the north and west of Greenland still with sea ice for several decades longer.

Some of the projected consequences of a mostly ice free Arctic.

1. Greatly increased arctic water vapor, increasing arctic warming (water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas) but also fundamentally altering arctic hydrology and hence weather patterns.

2. Immediately and fundamentally altered arctic atmospheric chemistry, causing increased arctic methane lifetime, among other basic changes.

3. Certain increase in acceleration of arctic warming, from increased solar energy entering the arctic ocean (this engenders 1.) and the release of latent heat into the atmosphere during autumn's rapid re-freezing.

4. Consequent increased potential for large arctic storms like the Great Arctic Cyclone this summer.

5. Consequent increased deep convection events (mixing to bottom) of arctic ocean, particularly important over the shallow water of the shelves, where lower layers can now often be methane-saturated.

6. Consequently an increase of seabed methane emissions -- including from seabed permafrost, shallow methane hydrate, and from thawing of either or both of these and increased gas migration pathways allowing free gas from underneath the hydrates to outgas.

(For full PowerPoint PDF, scroll down to Topic/Title Methane Release from Eastern Siberian Shelf.)

7. This increase in seabed permafrost thawing leads to a subsequent increased risk that a random seismic event could suddenly release large amounts of methane from the above combination of thawing sources, or from other thawed arctic carbon stores (see PowerPoint above).

8. Increased risk of general degradation of shallow methane hydrates leading to slope failure and consequent methane release.

9. Certain increase in chronic emissions of methane (and CO2) from thawing land permafrost, peat, etc. with the general added warming mentioned above.

10. The increased arctic methane lifetime (2.) is indistinguishable from an increase in its arctic abundance.

11. Increasing continued rate of ice (and snow) loss as the ice-free-period subsequently lengthens, from all the above, particularly significant as the insolation increases earlier in the season to around the solstice in June (discussion here, scroll down to An Ice-free Solstice).

And here are some immediate potential global impacts to chew on:

12. Recent research suggests that ice (and snow cover) loss is at least one causative factor in recent extreme weather -- drought, flood, fires, etc. -- and if so this could quickly be amplified.

13. Consequently, recent global impacts on food security could increase proportionally.

14. Economic losses from each of those (12., 13) would probably increase proportionally, and potentially could amplify into global economic recession or even depression.

15. If there's large-scale (multi gigaton-scale) methane release soon, this would of course fundamentally alter the whole path of global warming (see my Twilight posts #1,#2), with vast consequences.

16. If the ice-free period expands significantly, altered arctic tropospheric oxidation could rapidly start to impact high latitude urban areas, making cities with large populations rapidly become more difficult to live in (good discussion here at GISS, where Hansen is himself director).
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I'm not usually in favour of the death penalty, but I think we should seriously look at it for dealing with politicians and industry leaders who did their best to make this disaster happen.
 
EagleSmack

EagleSmack

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I thought it was going to be ice free this summer... four years ago. LOL

Global Warming.... pfffft
 
coldstream

coldstream

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Oct 19, 2005
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The last time the arctic was ice free was 1889. Something that happens.. as with all climate by way complex oceanic conditions of which only one element is temperature. Also there has been a complete offset on the cyclical loss of arctic ice with the buildup of antarctic ice.

It's just more ranting screaming from the crazies who support AGW, and want to bring modern technological civilization to an end to impose their pagan eco utopia. They have absolutely no regard for science or truth.. just blind ideology.

One has to wonder what they'll come up with when the ice returns later in the decade. But they'll come up with something dire SOMEWHERE in the world. :roll:

Also i noticed this unusual blast cold air in North America this October has provoked hardly a mention in the mainstream media.. not at like the raving hysteria around a few hot days last summer.
 
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darkbeaver

darkbeaver

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A blessing for Greenland. They can improve their agriculture. Someone should consider prison time for warmists who spread false alarms about natural climate change. Fossil fuels don't even exist. The warmista wants a global tax imposed to regulate solar output. What idiocy.
 
R

Redmonton_Rebel

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May 13, 2012
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Nathan Currier: Saving the Arctic Ice: Greenpeace, Greenwashing and Geoengineering (#1)

16. If the ice-free period expands significantly, altered arctic tropospheric oxidation could rapidly start to impact high latitude urban areas, making cities with large populations rapidly become more difficult to live in (good discussion here at GISS, where Hansen is himself director).
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Basically I think this says that changes in Arctic temperature could result a new hole in the ozone layer making living in northern latitudes much more of a health risk...this is why you don't let lobbyists and the politicians they've bought take over the system.

Also we're looking at more droughts in the world...

Climate models that predict more droughts win further scientific support - The Washington Post

Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

The United States will suffer a series of severe droughts in the next two decades, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Moreover, global warming will play an increasingly important role in their abundance and severity, claims Aiguo Dai, the study’s author.
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This summer saw more than half the US in the worst drought conditions in 50 years and given a few more years like this food become scarce, we'll have enough oil and coal to burn but nor enough food for people.

Considering the potential loss of life and how lobbyists for the fossil fuel sector along with politicians they've helped put in power have distorted and denied the facts on an issue that could potentially cost the lives of not millions but billions of people if the worst case scenarios come true(which seems to be happening) then as with others who've caused great social and environmental damage in the past then the use of some of the most harsh punishments becomes appropriate...if people in positions of great power abuse that power for short term personal benefit then they should suffer the consequences. Of course if the worst comes to worst and for instance we start seeing huge amounts of methane being released in the Arctic as it rapidly warms then it won't make much difference.

Personally I'd feel some satisfaction in seeing people who are almost certainly guilty of crimes against humanity brought to justice even if it is too late to prevent the kind of disaster they've been working so hard to make happen.
 
darkbeaver

darkbeaver

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Redmonton_Rebel said:
Nathan Currier: Saving the Arctic Ice: Greenpeace, Greenwashing and Geoengineering (#1)



Basically I think this says that changes in Arctic temperature could result a new hole in the ozone layer making living in northern latitudes much more of a health risk...this is why you don't let lobbyists and the politicians they've bought take over the system.

Also we're looking at more droughts in the world...

Climate models that predict more droughts win further scientific support - The Washington Post

Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group



This summer saw more than half the US in the worst drought conditions in 50 years and given a few more years like this food become scarce, we'll have enough oil and coal to burn but nor enough food for people.

Considering the potential loss of life and how lobbyists for the fossil fuel sector along with politicians they've helped put in power have distorted and denied the facts on an issue that could potentially cost the lives of not millions but billions of people if the worst case scenarios come true(which seems to be happening) then as with others who've caused great social and environmental damage in the past then the use of some of the most harsh punishments becomes appropriate...if people in positions of great power abuse that power for short term personal benefit then they should suffer the consequences. Of course if the worst comes to worst and for instance we start seeing huge amounts of methane being released in the Arctic as it rapidly warms then it won't make much difference.

Personally I'd feel some satisfaction in seeing people who are almost certainly guilty of crimes against humanity brought to justice even if it is too late to prevent the kind of disaster they've been working so hard to make happen.
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Hello, 12,500 or so years ago there was a global near extinction event that offed virtually every living creature and plant in most of the Americas, this is a scientific fact it's the event that removed horses camels sabre toothed tigers giant cave bears giant chickens and people in less than an afternoon. With that in mind I don't think a little missing ice or a little too much sun is anything to worry about let alone waste time and money trying to alter planet crushing power with tax dollars. It's a money game buddy.
 
R

Redmonton_Rebel

Electoral Member
May 13, 2012
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I get that this is just a game for some people, everything is in fact, it's the definition of being a sociopath.

People are already dying and the rest of us are being put in serious jeopardy by people who are functionally incapable of caring about anything but playing "the game", this entire site seems dedicated to that.

I'd say wake the hell up, but what's the point. By your actions some of you have been and still are causing serious damage to the rest of us, I'm certain this won't last much longer.
 
Praxius

Praxius

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Dec 18, 2007
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EagleSmack said:
I thought it was going to be ice free this summer... four years ago. LOL

Global Warming.... pfffft
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Yup... been there, done that.... Told ya so and all that jazz....

Now they missed the last deadline-prediction (again) so again they push it further to a few more years....

Don't worry, they'll get it right eventually. :roll:

The boy who cried wolf.

Redmonton_Rebel said:
**** you asshole, this subforum is full of the bull**** from the deniers here and this is the only response to an issue that could very well leave most if not all of us without the ability to live.
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Oh please.... this is the same old prediction I heard in the late 80's which was supposed to happen in 1997, where the ice caps would all melt, and coastal cities would be under several metres of ocean.....

... that didn't happen, then Al Gore came along with his pockets loaded with money to spread the same crap with a different date.... still hasn't happened.

Then we had the same predictions pushed back yet again and again and again.... then the thread a few years back saying we'd have an ice free Arctic by the summer... how many years ago now?

Hasn't happened.... now we got this crap yet again... pushing the prediction back again.

Give it up already.

Even if it was true, there's nothing you or anybody else can do about it..... so sit down, shut up and enjoy the ride.

Maybe Dr. Evil can invent some "Laser" to refreeze the ice caps again and save us all if we give him.....

..... TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS!!!!!



Redmonton_Rebel said:
I get that this is just a game for some people, everything is in fact, it's the definition of being a sociopath.

People are already dying and the rest of us are being put in serious jeopardy by people who are functionally incapable of caring about anything but playing "the game", this entire site seems dedicated to that.

I'd say wake the hell up, but what's the point. By your actions some of you have been and still are causing serious damage to the rest of us, I'm certain this won't last much longer.
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Fool me once.... again, in the 80's we were all told that if we didn't drastically change our ways, by the late 90's / early 2000's, it's be far too late to fix anything.

Very little was done, and then around 2000, we were told the exact damn thing.... didn't fool me twice.

Oh noes, if we don't buy fancy light bulbs and compost our rotten food more, it'll be too late to do anything and the changes will be irreversible.

... Well that ship has sailed.... it's either far too late to do anything about it, thus we're screwed.... or it is completely out of our hands and never was in our hands, thus we're screwed.... or the goal posts keep changing, we're continually lied to, and thus.... wasting our time.... thus still no real incentive to do d*ck all.

Trust me... I used to be like you when I was younger.... then I came to my senses after being told the same thing over and over again with no results and no tangible evidence beyond the natural cycle of the environment which has been recorded and has been going on for thousands and thousands of years.

Go look at some Glacier Ice Core data to see what's been going on for many thousands of years and long before we came onto this planet...

Your fear mongering is invalid.
 
lone wolf

lone wolf

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Nov 25, 2006
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Redmonton_Rebel said:
I get that this is just a game for some people, everything is in fact, it's the definition of being a sociopath.

People are already dying and the rest of us are being put in serious jeopardy by people who are functionally incapable of caring about anything but playing "the game", this entire site seems dedicated to that.

I'd say wake the hell up, but what's the point. By your actions some of you have been and still are causing serious damage to the rest of us, I'm certain this won't last much longer.
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Blame something. It saves one from addressing his/her own part. How is the electricity that transmits your broadcast generated?
 
darkbeaver

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
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Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and here is the chart to prove it



  • The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures
  • This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996
 
darkbeaver

darkbeaver

the universe is electric
Jan 26, 2006
41,035
201
63
RR1 Distopia 666 Discordia
Redmonton_Rebel said:
I get that this is just a game for some people, everything is in fact, it's the definition of being a sociopath.
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The game is like this ,look over here and waste your time and energy while we the bankers screw you to the wall and take the food out of your mouth.

People are already dying and the rest of us are being put in serious jeopardy by people who are functionally incapable of caring about anything but playing "the game", this entire site seems dedicated to that.
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Those people who are functionally incapable of empathy or compassion designed the global warming climate change show to distract the innocent from the horror of war unfolding now. Closer and closer to home it comes while you lot twiddle your thumbs worrying about a naturally adjusting biosphere. Climate change is 100% natural. Get used to it, there's absolutely nothing you can do.

I'd say wake the hell up, but what's the point. By your actions some of you have been and still are causing serious damage to the rest of us, I'm certain this won't last much longer.
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You should be asking yourself if in fact you are not asleep dreaming that you can crusade successfully to punish and destroy people like me who are seriously damaging you. Nothing last longer than the planet you seem to think is in dire peril. You should be worried about the next extinction event. There is some work dealing with the cyclic nature of catastrophic events and their periods, you should read some of it. Gives you a better perspective of what really constitutes a serious condition.
 
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