The Canadian election………….
- Thread starter Socrates the Greek
- Start date
Ok I will! I will do that. You just hang tight and keep your eyes peeled to this thread and I will be back after putting together what I need.
BRB
(psst...it is spelled comrade not "comrad")
BRIAN LAGHI
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
September 1, 2008 at 10:21 PM EDT
OTTAWA — The Harper Conservatives will enter a federal election campaign with a polling lead that puts them within striking distance of winning a majority government, according to a new survey taken on the eve of an expected vote.
The new poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Canadian voters satisfied with the direction of the country and significantly more confident in the leadership abilities of the Tories and Prime Minister Stephen Harper than they are in those of his main rival, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals.
According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party.
In the 2006 election, the Tories polled 36 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 18 and the Greens' 5.
“With these numbers, a majority is within the reach of the Conservatives, but not yet in their grasp,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel. “I think that's the really important difference.”
The Tory gains are significant when compared with June, when scandals such as the Bernier affair left the two major parties statistically even in terms of voter support.
The Conservatives have built their lead on increased backing in British Columbia and parts of Ontario.
In areas of Ontario outside Toronto, they have turned the tables on the Liberals from the last election and now lead in popular support, 41 to 35.
The survey also finds that 45 per cent of Canadians believe it's time for a new government, down from 63 per cent in January, 2006, when voters threw the Paul Martin Liberals out of office.
“The number of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has declined,” Mr. Donolo said.
Canadians told pollsters the biggest issue facing the country is the economy, with 18 per cent saying it is the most pressing current concern. That's followed by health care at 15 per cent and then the environment at 14 per cent.
The survey shows that, of the major parties, the Conservatives are picked by 38 per cent of voters as the best able to manage the economy should there be a slowdown. The Liberals are picked by 27 per cent, the NDP by 8 per cent and the Greens by 3 per cent.
Mr. Harper's campaigners have already signalled they will run the campaign on their economic credentials, lashing out at the Liberal plan for a carbon tax, saying the plan would harm the economy.
In head-to-head comparisons, Mr. Harper is found by Canadians to lead Mr. Dion in a number of areas, including who is better to deal with the United States and the economy, and who offers the most positive vision of the country. Mr. Harper is also seen by 53 per cent of Canadians as the most decisive leader, compared with 17 per cent for Mr. Dion.
“The Conservatives would like this election to be about Harper versus Dion and leadership,” Mr. Donolo said.
Mr. Dion, on the other hand, must try to draw the votes of other left-of-centre voters, most of whom would opt for the Liberals as a second choice.
The Liberal Leader, said Mr. Donolo, will have to try to coax those voters away by arguing that the Liberals are the only way to prevent a Tory majority government.
If there is a silver lining for Mr. Dion, it is in Quebec, where both his and his party's appeal have ticked upward.
Of those Quebeckers surveyed, 26 per cent would opt for the Liberals, up five points from the last vote. The Tories, for their part, are down two points to 23 per cent, while the NDP has jumped four points to 12. The Bloc Québécois has lost eight points to 34.
Pollster Greg Lyle said Mr. Dion can maximize his chances by focusing on a Liberal advantage on the issue of compassion.
“That may already be paying off in the province of Quebec,” said Mr. Lyle, of Innovative Research Group Inc.
Mr. Lyle said the more robust Ontario numbers for the Tories probably stem from a fairly quiet summer that was free of controversy.
“There were lots of stories, but no coffee-talk stories,” he said.
On the matter of the Bloc Québécois drop, Mr. Lyle said Gilles Duceppe's flirtation with the Parti Québécois may have harmed the party and there have been few issues involving national unity that the BQ can capitalize on.
Mr. Lyle added, however, that the BQ may be able to make up lost ground by arguing that it is the only party that stands strictly for Quebec's interests.
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
September 1, 2008 at 10:21 PM EDT
OTTAWA — The Harper Conservatives will enter a federal election campaign with a polling lead that puts them within striking distance of winning a majority government, according to a new survey taken on the eve of an expected vote.
The new poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Canadian voters satisfied with the direction of the country and significantly more confident in the leadership abilities of the Tories and Prime Minister Stephen Harper than they are in those of his main rival, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals.
According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party.
In the 2006 election, the Tories polled 36 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 18 and the Greens' 5.
“With these numbers, a majority is within the reach of the Conservatives, but not yet in their grasp,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel. “I think that's the really important difference.”
The Tory gains are significant when compared with June, when scandals such as the Bernier affair left the two major parties statistically even in terms of voter support.
The Conservatives have built their lead on increased backing in British Columbia and parts of Ontario.
In areas of Ontario outside Toronto, they have turned the tables on the Liberals from the last election and now lead in popular support, 41 to 35.
The survey also finds that 45 per cent of Canadians believe it's time for a new government, down from 63 per cent in January, 2006, when voters threw the Paul Martin Liberals out of office.
“The number of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has declined,” Mr. Donolo said.
Canadians told pollsters the biggest issue facing the country is the economy, with 18 per cent saying it is the most pressing current concern. That's followed by health care at 15 per cent and then the environment at 14 per cent.
The survey shows that, of the major parties, the Conservatives are picked by 38 per cent of voters as the best able to manage the economy should there be a slowdown. The Liberals are picked by 27 per cent, the NDP by 8 per cent and the Greens by 3 per cent.
Mr. Harper's campaigners have already signalled they will run the campaign on their economic credentials, lashing out at the Liberal plan for a carbon tax, saying the plan would harm the economy.
In head-to-head comparisons, Mr. Harper is found by Canadians to lead Mr. Dion in a number of areas, including who is better to deal with the United States and the economy, and who offers the most positive vision of the country. Mr. Harper is also seen by 53 per cent of Canadians as the most decisive leader, compared with 17 per cent for Mr. Dion.
“The Conservatives would like this election to be about Harper versus Dion and leadership,” Mr. Donolo said.
Mr. Dion, on the other hand, must try to draw the votes of other left-of-centre voters, most of whom would opt for the Liberals as a second choice.
The Liberal Leader, said Mr. Donolo, will have to try to coax those voters away by arguing that the Liberals are the only way to prevent a Tory majority government.
If there is a silver lining for Mr. Dion, it is in Quebec, where both his and his party's appeal have ticked upward.
Of those Quebeckers surveyed, 26 per cent would opt for the Liberals, up five points from the last vote. The Tories, for their part, are down two points to 23 per cent, while the NDP has jumped four points to 12. The Bloc Québécois has lost eight points to 34.
Pollster Greg Lyle said Mr. Dion can maximize his chances by focusing on a Liberal advantage on the issue of compassion.
“That may already be paying off in the province of Quebec,” said Mr. Lyle, of Innovative Research Group Inc.
Mr. Lyle said the more robust Ontario numbers for the Tories probably stem from a fairly quiet summer that was free of controversy.
“There were lots of stories, but no coffee-talk stories,” he said.
On the matter of the Bloc Québécois drop, Mr. Lyle said Gilles Duceppe's flirtation with the Parti Québécois may have harmed the party and there have been few issues involving national unity that the BQ can capitalize on.
Mr. Lyle added, however, that the BQ may be able to make up lost ground by arguing that it is the only party that stands strictly for Quebec's interests.
Remember ... when they come out of the starting gate hot, they fall on their face before the end of the race....
The number to watch is the NDP rise in Quebec
The number to watch is the NDP rise in Quebec
The last couple polls put the Liberals ahead by a point or two. The other thing is that a lot of Canadians are not happy about a snap election a year ahead of time. Federal elections cost this country something around 110 million dollars a crack. Could be a back-lash there. Harper might eventually be sorry he called this election.
I doubt this very much, the weakness of Dion will be in Harpers favor. I do believe we will end up with a con minority but it wouldn't surprise me that a fumbling and stumbling Dion will help Harper get his minority.
Then we will see how con this con government really is.
I don't believe Dion is that bad. His English might not be perfect but I think he is a good man. The last time I heard him speak he sounded fine.
Libs generaly draw a lot of strength from NDP. Dion's wishy-washy leadership will will send a lot of voters Layton's way
The proof will be in the results. I think Harper is an assh--e for calling this election. We'll see who else thinks that.
What difference does it make? Elections in Canada are a joke. However much good a politician's intentions may be when they start out in politics, they are soon corrupted into something else (crap) when they hit the cabinet and PMO. The senior bureaucrats see to that.
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I don't believe that Gilbert. I worked on federal elections for almost fifteen years. I talked to not only the candidates we were working for, but those from all parties and for the most part these were exceptional people.
That is some pretty wishful thinking that those who don't like Dion will go the way of the NDP.
Most of us Canadians think NDP is way out to lunch (both liberals and conservatives) even the green party reps hate being compared to the NDP.
Dion is one of the most Left leaning liberals in a long time. Anyone who would consider voting liberal but won't vote for dion will be more towards the right than Dion so the likely hood they would vote NDP is very very small.
The Green Party will be hurting this election as well thanks to Dion and his perceived environmental friendliness with way more of a chance of actually making a difference.
So in synopsis: Possible green party voters as 500 of them, will move to Liberal if they are also Left, they don't really care about forming government or they would never consider voting green.
I don't think there will be much movement between NDP and Liberal.
Possible Liberal voters who won't vote for Dion will almost certainly be on the right of Dion and therefore vote Conservative.
No one who is center to center right will even consider voting liberal this time around thanks to Dion.
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As I have yet to meet a Liberal lifer who still likes Dion as their leader when speaking candidly. That leaves very little hope for the liberals and the swing voters
IMHO I see this being a stronger Conservative minority with a possibility of Conservative majority.
Most of us Canadians think NDP is way out to lunch (both liberals and conservatives) even the green party reps hate being compared to the NDP.
Dion is one of the most Left leaning liberals in a long time. Anyone who would consider voting liberal but won't vote for dion will be more towards the right than Dion so the likely hood they would vote NDP is very very small.
The Green Party will be hurting this election as well thanks to Dion and his perceived environmental friendliness with way more of a chance of actually making a difference.
So in synopsis: Possible green party voters as 500 of them, will move to Liberal if they are also Left, they don't really care about forming government or they would never consider voting green.
I don't think there will be much movement between NDP and Liberal.
Possible Liberal voters who won't vote for Dion will almost certainly be on the right of Dion and therefore vote Conservative.
No one who is center to center right will even consider voting liberal this time around thanks to Dion.
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As I have yet to meet a Liberal lifer who still likes Dion as their leader when speaking candidly. That leaves very little hope for the liberals and the swing voters
IMHO I see this being a stronger Conservative minority with a possibility of Conservative majority.
I think Harper should have finished his term or at least got punted by a non confidence vote, and as Juan said it is a huge expense. The Government could spend 110 million somewhere else where it's needed. But I'll still vote Con because it seems like Dion is just making his policies up on the fly- I'm still not clear how the "Green Shaft" is supposed to work.
No question Dion is super intelligent but his ability to be challenged on any subject is weak. Harper has done a lot of research into campaigning and oddly enough he learned the most from studying Cretien.
Harper is far more prepared financially and intellectually than Dion is and that will give the cons the victory or semi-victory.