Canadian Federal Election Outcome October 20th (or 27th?), 2025.
- Thread starter Ron in Regina
- Start date
Well…what an interesting day. I’m looking forward to this coming Sundays updated poll numbers on the coming federal election.
Last Sundays show the Conservatives holding steady at between 215-230 seats, like they have pretty consistently for the last year plus….
With the Liberals potentially falling enough that they may not even be the official opposition to the Conservatives.
Quite some time back, predating this thread I predicted the following…
I’m sticking with my above prediction, but in hindsight I think I may have overestimated the Liberals, & underestimated the Conservatives.
I hate to say it but Trudeau might last another couple months, until at least February 25th 2025 when Jagmeet’s pension comes to fruition.
Currently there’s ONE Day left to Parliament sitting in 2024:
And it doesn’t sit again until the last week of January 2025:
So February isn’t so far fetched…& this last Sunday (to compare to this coming Sunday) the poll aggregate looked like this:
Add another 2 months for a lightning election campaign period and we’d be looking at maybe End of April for an election at the soonest???
***This below video must date back all the way to sometime pre-this-morning:
***Then is below video would date to sometime post-this-morning I guess:
Only eight years ago, the vast majority of Canadians lived under a Liberal premier, and a Liberal majority government reigned in Ottawa.
In another two, Canada will likely be a place in which Liberals aren’t just banished from power – but where they will be lucky to form the official opposition.
If current poll numbers are any indication, the Canada of 2026 will count just two provinces with a Liberal premier: New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador, comprising about 1.3 million people total.
Two more provinces – P.E.I. and Quebec – are likely to see Liberals in opposition, albeit weak ones.
Everywhere else, Liberals will either be at the political fringe, or they’ll have been exiled from elected office altogether. Three provinces (B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan) now have legislatures without a single Liberal seat – and Manitoba is down to just one. Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for the Winnipeg-area riding of Tyndall Park, is now the only Liberal MLA in the Western provinces.
The fate that potentially lies in wait for the Liberal brand is not collapse, but it could be closer to something that’s already happened to Liberals in the West: The parties continue to exist, but they’re consigned to a kind of political purgatory, permanently occupying fringe corners of legislatures that they used to dominate.
Last Sundays show the Conservatives holding steady at between 215-230 seats, like they have pretty consistently for the last year plus….
With the Liberals potentially falling enough that they may not even be the official opposition to the Conservatives.
Quite some time back, predating this thread I predicted the following…
I’m sticking with my above prediction, but in hindsight I think I may have overestimated the Liberals, & underestimated the Conservatives.
I hate to say it but Trudeau might last another couple months, until at least February 25th 2025 when Jagmeet’s pension comes to fruition.
Currently there’s ONE Day left to Parliament sitting in 2024:And it doesn’t sit again until the last week of January 2025:
So February isn’t so far fetched…& this last Sunday (to compare to this coming Sunday) the poll aggregate looked like this:
Add another 2 months for a lightning election campaign period and we’d be looking at maybe End of April for an election at the soonest???
***This below video must date back all the way to sometime pre-this-morning:
In another two, Canada will likely be a place in which Liberals aren’t just banished from power – but where they will be lucky to form the official opposition.
If current poll numbers are any indication, the Canada of 2026 will count just two provinces with a Liberal premier: New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador, comprising about 1.3 million people total.
Two more provinces – P.E.I. and Quebec – are likely to see Liberals in opposition, albeit weak ones.
Everywhere else, Liberals will either be at the political fringe, or they’ll have been exiled from elected office altogether. Three provinces (B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan) now have legislatures without a single Liberal seat – and Manitoba is down to just one. Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for the Winnipeg-area riding of Tyndall Park, is now the only Liberal MLA in the Western provinces.
The fate that potentially lies in wait for the Liberal brand is not collapse, but it could be closer to something that’s already happened to Liberals in the West: The parties continue to exist, but they’re consigned to a kind of political purgatory, permanently occupying fringe corners of legislatures that they used to dominate.
I’m sticking with my above prediction, but in hindsight I think I may have overestimated the Liberals, & underestimated the Conservatives.
Rogan on Trudeau Getting Schooled by Journalist
www.youtube.com
Last week there was 1 projected. A northern riding if I recall from Ron. It has been toggling cpc to non-cpc for the last little while.
Giving the Conservatives a massive majority is also far from an ideal situation to look forward to for the next 4 years.
Now 10 months away, & hopefully less.
(Anybody can shoot themselves in the foot at any time on the federal Canadian parliamentary front, & any misstep or shitty quote Or advertising campaign can greatly affect the outcome)
CBC's Poll Tracker shows the Conservatives would secure a landslide majority government if an election were held today, with the Liberals in danger of falling into third, behind the Bloc Québécois, or perhaps even fourth, behind the NDP in the seat count,
but ahead of the Green Party still. Phew!
Other polls suggest the situation is so dire, the Liberals could end up losing official party status, unable to secure the 12 seats needed in the House of Commons.
The next Liberal leader might see the job as playing a long game, says Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University in London, Ont.
"You think about it as 'I'm going to come in now and I'm going to start staking my claim and I'm going to propose rebuilding … I'm not expecting to win this [election], but I'm hoping to win the next one.'''
"It depends on how committed are they to public service and what are their long-term goals."
There does not appear to be a shortage of potential candidates, including former finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, economic adviser Mark Carney, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and government House Leader Karina Gould.
If you expect to lose, then you are prepared to rebuild. You're prepared to ferret out what's wrong and try to try to solve those problems because you believe in the project that you believe in the people? Which people? The Canadian people? The Liberal Party people? The Liberal MP’s in parliament people?
apple.news
Yes, this is from the CBC.
but ahead of the Green Party still. Phew!Other polls suggest the situation is so dire, the Liberals could end up losing official party status, unable to secure the 12 seats needed in the House of Commons.
The next Liberal leader might see the job as playing a long game, says Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University in London, Ont.
"You think about it as 'I'm going to come in now and I'm going to start staking my claim and I'm going to propose rebuilding … I'm not expecting to win this [election], but I'm hoping to win the next one.'''
"It depends on how committed are they to public service and what are their long-term goals."
There does not appear to be a shortage of potential candidates, including former finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, economic adviser Mark Carney, former B.C. premier Christy Clark and government House Leader Karina Gould.
If you expect to lose, then you are prepared to rebuild. You're prepared to ferret out what's wrong and try to try to solve those problems because you believe in the project that you believe in the people? Which people? The Canadian people? The Liberal Party people? The Liberal MP’s in parliament people?
The Liberals could be crushed in the next election. Why would anyone want to lead them? — CBC News
Polls show the Conservatives with a commanding lead, and a potential crushing defeat for the Liberals. But many will soon be vying for that top job, raising the question: why anyone would want to lead a party that's likely to be soundly defeated?
As I’m waiting for the poll aggregate on Canada338, here’s the last projection I can find from the CBC which I think is being way overly generous towards both the NDP and Liberals…but that’s their client audience that they would be surveying I guess.
Yeah, but from January 6th. I’m curious to see what the difference is gonna be after a week after Trudeau sort of almost but not resigning, etc…
Nobody is going change their mind in panic. There is nobody worthwhile to get excited about.
The liberals got an uptick just by Trudeau announcing his intention to resign eventually, maybe even March 9th…
There’s a honeymoon period even just with him potentially leaving eventually, & even if it’s a Trudeau policy clone, they’ll also get an uptick just by not being Trudeau & being new to that position…& the longer they have to get a narrative spun without parliament in session…the better it could be for the Liberals.
…& it won’t be the Bloc siding with the Libs March 24th or 27th…& the Greens two seats don’t matter (still eyes on Jagmeet).
…& ultimately both Libs & NDP are still toast regarding the pensions of those MP’s first into the position from the 2019 election. The odd one might get reelected, but….Most will not, & they’re looking at the same aggregate polls that we are.
Whomever gets leadership will be PM for a day.
Nobody is going to back them until October. Libs couldn't pass gas let alone any bills.