Canadian Federal Election Outcome October 20th (or 27th?), 2025.

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
26,900
9,926
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
(Singh boasted 22 times in one press conference that he’d “ripped up” his deal with Trudeau)
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has been trying to convince the Liberals that he wants to help, while simultaneously promising to bring down the government. A tough sell, to say the least.

Many Conservatives had been warily watching these events as a sign that perhaps, with NDP support, the Liberals would be able to hold onto power until the statutory fixed election date next October.

Should they think again??? Singh’s latest offer produced a massive yawn on the Liberal side. That is perhaps the best indication that they have no interest in extending the life of their government much beyond the day when they choose their new leader. It’s easy to understand.

Could it be that after 30-ish months of the non-coalition coalition that was definitely not a coalition-type coalition…that Singh is just as toxic as Trudeau at this point? 🤔

It requires a certain je ne sais quoi (I’d call it sliminess) be able to say one thing and its opposite in the same sentence. This is a skill that Singh put on display this week.
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“I will be voting against the government at the earliest opportunity. If the Liberals are serious, though, about a plan to support workers, call the opposition leaders together. Discuss that plan with us,” he said Tuesday.

A slight logistical problem posed itself for Singh. How are you supposed to convince the government that you’re there in good faith to help them introduce new budgetary measures, when their defeat on that same legislation would mean an automatic election?

Why are the Liberals ignoring their greasy dance partner now?

One is momentum, or at least the illusion of it. It would be a real downer, after the high of a leadership race and the non-election of a new de facto prime minister, to then get back into the grind of a minority parliament and hand Poilievre his soapbox. What possible gain is there in that for the Liberals?

A second is the legislative agenda, the compulsory budget in particular. What would be the advantage to the Liberals of sticking their new leader’s face in the target and handing the opposition parties a stack of cream pies to throw at them?

A third, as surprising as it might sound, is good old Canadian language politics. After prorogation, there would have to be a throne speech. That would pose a singular challenge. No slight intended to our Governor General as a person, but in a country with two official languages, Gov. Gen. Mary Simon still couldn’t deliver the requisite parts of a throne speech in plausible French.

(That might seem like a small detail to many, but it would be perceived as a slight by the eight million Canadians who have French as their first language. Not a winning proposition for the Liberals who’ve “traditionally” done well with that vote)

Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, the Liberals will want to be the ones to decide the date. Being defeated is not a way to start off for a new leader. Cutting to the chase, that would give Carney the prerogative to choose the length of the election campaign.

As the current opposition, Pierre Poilievre has exceptional rhetorical skills. As a leadership candidate, he wiped the floor with a seasoned politician like Jean Charest. He’s not to be underestimated. But a federal general election is a different beast. A 24/7 news cycle reveals character. That may not help Poilievre.

The economy promises (call it a smoke screen combined with slight of hand) to be the main thrust of the Liberal campaign and, from their point of view, the longer the campaign, the better it will be for them to make their case.

The Liberal track record under Trudeau has been sketchy at best. The economy has been his Achilles heel. One of the few promises that he kept from his 2015 campaign was to never have a balanced budget. He excelled at that.

Trudeau’s weakness on the economy has, of course, hurt Chrystia Freeland who backed Trudeau every step of the way for nine years.

Carney’s “claim” to be an ‘outsider’ is the Liberals’ best and, indeed, only hope.
There’s a lot to be forgiven before Canadian voters will give the Liberals another chance. For them to pull it off, they have to show voters that they have not only a new face but a new approach to governing.😉

Watching Carney rally so many of Freeland’s former colleagues has been revealing, like Trudeau & something like 16 of Trudeau’s cabinet ministers endorsing Trudeau/Telford’s coronation of Carney ‘cuz he’s such an outsider and has been for years.

It remains to be seen whether those qualities will allow him to convince enough Canadian voters that he can also change the Liberals' old ways and that they should be given another chance under his leadership…but currently his sway in the polls is a probability rounding error so far.
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Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
26,900
9,926
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
Between a caffeinated conservative and a decaf one.
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Between beer and near-beer.
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What’s happened over the course of the Liberal leadership race since Carney officially entered on Jan.18 in Edmonton and unofficially on Jan. 14 on The Daily Show with an enthusiastic Jon Stewart, is that Carney keeps nudging to the right, at least rhetorically, the Liberal party that lame duck Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spent almost a decade dragging to the left, straight into its current dumpster fire of unpopularity.
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Consider:

Poilievre has vowed to scrap the federal carbon tax (aka the consumer fuel charge portion of it) if he becomes prime minister as he has ever since Trudeau and the Liberals introduced the concept seven years ago.

Carney, by contrast, a leading global and corporate promoter of carbon taxes, until a couple of weeks ago, now says he’ll scrap the consumer fuel tax and replace it it with something better, blaming Poilievre for misleading Canadians about what it would do?
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Meanwhile, Poilievre, who has opposed Liberal plans to increase the capital gains tax since the Liberals introduced it in June, vows to scrap them if he becomes PM.

Carney now says he too, will scrap the proposed increases even though they were introduced and advocated for by his own political party?

(The Trudeau government has since announced it is deferring its capital gains tax legislation until 2026, after the federal election is over.)
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Poilievre says the Liberals over their decade in power lost control of immigration, the federal budget, deficits and debt, overspent and overtaxed the middle class. He now promises a tax cut to help families cope with tough times.

Carney says the Liberals over their decade in power lost control of immigration, the federal budget, deficits and debt, overspent and overtaxed the middle class. He also promises a tax cut to help families cope with tough times now?
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Poilievre says the federal civil service has grown too large under the Liberals and he will reduce its size and budget by attrition, thus helping to pay for government services without going further into debt.

Carney says the federal civil service has grown by more than 30% under the Liberals “and I think we can over time be in a position to increase productivity” to help pay for government programs such as dental care and pharmacare, rather than scrap them which he says he will not do?
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The danger for Carney and the Liberals is that attacking political positions their own party and they themselves recently supported, makes them come across as double-talkers and hypocrites.😳

But they really have no choice because praising those policies reminds voters of why they became so disillusioned and frustrated with the Trudeau Liberals in the first place.🤔
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That happened because while Canadians were concerned about the high cost of putting food on the table and paying the rent, issues that Poilievre and the Conservatives were raising every day, Liberals were talking about climate change and their own political survival in the face of crashing poll numbers. Whoopsies.

Finally, the wild card in the coming federal election is, of course, U.S. President Donald Trump, who inexplicably seems to have it in for Canada these days.
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Poilievre really hasn’t had to change anything in the last year, & the Liberal Party under whomever it’s actually under is grasping at the rim of the bowl as the water swirls around their hips (which begs the question of what Color is Jagmeet snorkel?).
Anyway, Canadians will have to endure Carney’s lectures because the Liberals have decided they must, for their own good. Just about all of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political gang has lined up behind Carney for an effortless transition after the coming coronation.