John Kerry blasts climate change deniers, 'shoddy scientists'
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But the truthers will ignore this fact like they have so many others.
No. He is collecting a pension. Paid for by resource workers that he would like to put on welfare.
Why? Unless someone has reason to believe that the laws of physics has changed, then it makes no difference. The laws of physics over-ride extrapolations of past events. As deniers so rightly point out, the climate is always changing, and just because something happened in the past does not mean it will happen again in the future. The climate responds to physics, not the calendar date.
Is that what the alarmist masters are telling the minions now? The wealthy alarmists got tired of being called out on their grotesque and gluttonous use of energy so they modified the talking points to justify their extravagant lifestyles?
Is the end of the Holocene Optimum included in the models?
Is it possible to model the oceans which control climates?
Do all interglacial optimums end the same way with a CO2 and temp spike? Yes or No?
As for your Pinatubo malarkey, who is monitoring the CO2 from the 3.5 million hydrothermal vents which are classified as volcanoes?
Laws are subject to interpretation and revision. oh boy, the calendar, you'll note tracks the sun and moon, both determine physical modifications.
You'll never get a proper answer to that Pete.... It would fully undermine the 'anthropogenic' element that the truther crowd has hung it's hat on
Not so good or ships would be diverted from sitting in the St Larry and English Bay to Churchill to move one f*ck load of grain that is sitting.
I think that you're mistaken there... I recall that there is a graph that shows how it is ice free... And computer models, those too.
Time that we face the facts here my friend, the North is ice free.... The graph published in the past says so and it's supported by a model.
Let me get in touch with the quality scienticians over at East Anglia... There is a very good chance that you are Darth's son
I wouldn't be surprised. As a son what percentage of the 0.2% tax on our GDP to combat Ewok mange on the forest planet of Endor do I get my mitts on?
No that's just my opinion.
I'm all for giving people the opportunity to make a change without government intervention, but I don't think enough people are changing fast enough and the situation isn't likely to resolve itself. Especially if you have wealthy individuals on all sides of the political spectrum who enjoy a certain living standard.
That's why I laugh at people who cling to the carbon footprint of these people as some kind of contradictory argument.
You're only reinforcing the point that there is a determinist element in all this and that our dependency on a limited resource outweighs our individual capacity to make any enforceable change.
I'm a pretty libertarian kinda guy, but you would have to be pretty deluded to think the change will come from bottom up - at least from a consumerist perspective. I'm pretty confident that we are at least capable of democratically electing government that will make corrective policy change.
Hmm, you want to point to the model that predicted that? Oh you can't...I thought not.
Fail.
BUSTED!!!
from 2007
Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'
Page last updated at 10:40 GMT, Wednesday, 12 December 2007
Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.
Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.
Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.
Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.
"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."
Real world
Using supercomputers to crunch through possible future outcomes has become a standard part of climate science in recent years.
Professor Maslowski's group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS), is well known for producing modelled dates that are in advance of other teams.
These other teams have variously produced dates for an open summer ocean that, broadly speaking, go out from about 2040 to 2100.
But the Monterey researcher believes these models have seriously underestimated some key melting processes. In particular, Professor Maslowski is adamant that models need to incorporate more realistic representations of the way warm water is moving into the Arctic basin from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.
"My claim is that the global climate models underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice by oceanic advection," Professor Maslowski said.
"The reason is that their low spatial resolution actually limits them from seeing important detailed factors.
"We use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data. This way, we get much more realistic forcing, from above by the atmosphere and from the bottom by the ocean."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN-led body which assesses the state of the Earth's climate system, uses an averaged group of models to forecast ice loss in the Arctic.
But it is has become apparent in recent years that the real, observed rate of summer ice melting is now starting to run well ahead of the models.
The minimum ice extent reached in September 2007 shattered the previous record for ice withdrawal set in 2005, of 5.32 million square km.
The long-term average minimum, based on data from 1979 to 2000, is 6.74 million square km. In comparison, 2007 was lower by 2.61 million square km, an area approximately equal to the size of Alaska and Texas combined, or the size of 10 United Kingdoms.
Diminishing returns
Professor Peter Wadhams from Cambridge University, UK, is an expert on Arctic ice. He has used sonar data collected by Royal Navy submarines to show that the volume loss is outstripping even area withdrawal, which is in agreement with the model result of Professor Maslowski.
"Some models have not been taking proper account of the physical processes that go on," he commented.
"The ice is thinning faster than it is shrinking; and some modellers have been assuming the ice was a rather thick slab.
"Wieslaw's model is more efficient because it works with data and it takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice."
Blind Polar Bears Along the Northwest Passage
He cited the ice-albedo feedback effect in which open water receives more solar radiation, which in turn leads to additional warming and further melting.
Professor Wadhams said the Arctic was now being set up for further ice loss in the coming years.
"The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.
"There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.
"In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040."
The US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) collects the observational data on the extent of Arctic sea ice, delivering regular status bulletins. Its research scientist Dr Mark Serreze was asked to give one of the main lectures here at this year's AGU Fall Meeting.
Discussing the possibility for an open Arctic ocean in summer months, he told the meeting: "A few years ago, even I was thinking 2050, 2070, out beyond the year 2100, because that's what our models were telling us. But as we've seen, the models aren't fast enough right now; we are losing ice at a much more rapid rate.
"My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of."
And later, to the BBC, Dr Serreze added: "I think Wieslaw is probably a little aggressive in his projections, simply because the luck of the draw means natural variability can kick in to give you a few years in which the ice loss is a little less than you've had in previous years. But Wieslaw is a smart guy and it would not surprise me if his projections came out."
Former US Vice President Al Gore cited Professor Maslowski's analysis on Monday in his acceptance speech at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo. Jonathan.Amos-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
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