What will it take to beat Harper? Thomas Mulcair has a few ideas

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

Unlike your guesses, I'm using statistical facts.

Notice how 39% < 50%

You are equating who the person votes for with their political leaning. Clearly the CPC have ~40% of the popular vote. But their support is primarly (asside from the ultra right wing component) largly centre leaning Canadians who don't want to go too far left with the NDP and are disappointed with the Liberals. Likewise, the NDPs growth in support shows that they had moved far enough right to not be thought of as an extreme left wing fringe party. If the NDP continues on Jack's path toward the centre, they would have had a shot at more support. Moving to the left removes them from consideration of those who are centralist.

The Liberals spent years under Creatien playing the middle and claiming that ground as theirs. Worked very well for them.

 

[mentalfloss]

You are equating who the person votes for with their political leaning. Clearly the CPC have ~40% of the popular vote. But their support is primarly (asside from the ultra right wing component) largly centre leaning Canadians who don't want to go too far left with the NDP and are disappointed with the Liberals. Likewise, the NDPs growth in support shows that they had moved far enough right to not be thought of as an extreme left wing fringe party. If the NDP continues on Jack's path toward the centre, they would have had a shot at more support. Moving to the left removes them from consideration of those who are centralist.

The Liberals spent years under Creatien playing the middle and claiming that ground as theirs. Worked very well for them.

If you're throwing social policy in with economic policy, then even most Conservatives swing left.

 

[Colpy]

Unlike your guesses, I'm using statistical facts.

Notice how 39% < 50%

And what your polls indicate is exactly what I've been saying.....the surge in NDP support is a blip, caused by a perfect storm of moderate Jack, Quebec's abandonment of the Bloc, and the disintegration of the Liberals. The surge has been sustained by sympathy for Jack and the outpouring of concern at his passing.

But.....sorry Bud, Jack is dead.

When Canadian voters realize that moderate Jack has been replaced by either a union looney or a Quebecois nationalist, or both.....well, let's just say NDP numbers will sag......especially outside of Quebec, where the gains were not that impressive to start with.

The Liberals will be back.

Oh, also please note that 39%>30%.

Which is why (thank GOD!!!!!) the NDP aren't running things.

 

[darkbeaver]

A stick? no, a broom? no, a boot? fun but no, well what will beat the Harper monster? the answer is the TRUTH, that Israel licking blemish on Canada will shrivel under the truth.

Of course you could vote, but all those roads lead to Tel Aviv these days, or they just don't win

 

[Tonington]

You are equating who the person votes for with their political leaning. Clearly the CPC have ~40% of the popular vote. But their support is primarly (asside from the ultra right wing component) largly centre leaning Canadians who don't want to go too far left with the NDP and are disappointed with the Liberals.

So if 40% is mostly in the center, with some leaning right, then where do you imagine the other 60% of voters fall? They voted for parties with far more left wing policies than the CPC. Of course the middle will have the most, but the distribution of votes is definitely skewed to the left. I can't even fathom how anyone would disagree with this.

And what your polls indicate is exactly what I've been saying.....the surge in NDP support is a blip

If the polls supported what you were saying, then the NDP support wouldn't remain high...blips come and go, like on a radar screen, or the beat of a heart on an EKG, or the narrow spike of an earthquake on a seismogram.

Blips are either quick, or slight changes. The polls don't support that at ALL.

 

[Colpy]

So if 40% is mostly in the center, with some leaning right, then where do you imagine the other 60% of voters fall? They voted for parties with far more left wing policies than the CPC. Of course the middle will have the most, but the distribution of votes is definitely skewed to the left. I can't even fathom how anyone would disagree with this.



If the polls supported what you were saying, then the NDP support wouldn't remain high...blips come and go, like on a radar screen, or the beat of a heart on an EKG, or the narrow spike of an earthquake on a seismogram.

Blips are either quick, or slight changes. The polls don't support that at ALL.

Ahhh....you are assuming, incorrectly, that the remainder that still vote Liberal are left-wing. My bet is that the greatest number of remaining Liberal supporters are "brand" voters..........voters that, were the LPC to disappear, would need to look carefully at policy. To assume they would back the NDP as opposed to the CPC is simply not on.

Split it down the middle as of May...........26% voted Liberal. Say one half are not moving left, and one half are..........

39% (CPC) plus 13%........well, you do the math.

It is all conjecture anyway, my main bone of contention being that people consider Liberal and NDP voters the same, divided only by party loyalties and traditional voting patterns.

And THAT is BS.

Oh....and six months.....that's a blip.

 

[Tonington]

Ahhh....you are assuming, incorrectly, that the remainder that still vote Liberal are left-wing.

No I'm not...I'm assuming that the Liberals, NDP, Green, and bloc are to the left of the Conservatives. The liberals got less than three million, the NDP 4.5 million. I'm assuming that a number of Liberal votes are centrist, even for the Bloc, and some for the NDP. But what's left after the "centrist" of those votes is removed, is clearly left wing supporters.

Like I said, the majority are in the middle, but that doesn't mean that the tail of the distributions is the same for the right of center and left of center.

My bet is that the greatest number of remaining Liberal supporters are "brand" voters..........voters that, were the LPC to disappear, would need to look carefully at policy. To assume they would back the NDP as opposed to the CPC is simply not on.

I'm not assuming that would happen...

Oh....and six months.....that's a blip.

Blips have to go back down...the polls don't support that.

 

[mentalfloss]

Six months is the new blip confirmed.

 

[JLM]

Ahhh....you are assuming, incorrectly, that the remainder that still vote Liberal are left-wing. My bet is that the greatest number of remaining Liberal supporters are "brand" voters..........voters that, were the LPC to disappear, would need to look carefully at policy. To assume they would back the NDP as opposed to the CPC is simply not on.

Once the Liberals find a strong, credible leader, the N.D.P. will likely settle back to between 35 and 40 seats. Quebec N.D.P. members should be considered "Wild Cards"- no pun intended! :smile:

 

[Goober]

Once the Liberals find a strong, credible leader, the N.D.P. will likely settle back to between 35 and 40 seats. Quebec N.D.P. members should be considered "Wild Cards"- no pun intended! :smile:

The NDP will lose seats in the Next election. Sucking up to Quebec and the unions will be a killer - With the new so called leadership for the NDP it is back to the unions.

 

[JLM]

The NDP will lose seats in the Next election. Sucking up to Quebec and the unions will be a killer - With the new so called leadership for the NDP it is back to the unions.

Yep!

 

[mentalfloss]

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

So if 40% is mostly in the center, with some leaning right, then where do you imagine the other 60% of voters fall? They voted for parties with far more left wing policies than the CPC. Of course the middle will have the most, but the distribution of votes is definitely skewed to the left. I can't even fathom how anyone would disagree with this.

I would think a good chunk of the 60% also lean mostly to the centre. They just chose not to vote for Harper because they felt he leaned too far to the right. There are some chunks of far left support as there are chunks of far right.

I don't recall a government in my life time where significantly more than 40% of the voters agreed on one party. I think even Mulrunie's huge majority of 1984 or Cretien's huge majority of 1993 they didn't get 50% of the vote. 40% is enough to get a majority in most cases with the first past the post system.

 

[Retired_Can_Soldier]

What will it take to beat Harper?

If the NDP were to abandon its platform and adopt conservative values it might be a good place to start.

Just editing here and musing at the fact someone actually gave me a negative rep for this hilarious post.:lol:

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

No I'm not...I'm assuming that the Liberals, NDP, Green, and bloc are to the left of the Conservatives. The liberals got less than three million, the NDP 4.5 million. I'm assuming that a number of Liberal votes are centrist, even for the Bloc, and some for the NDP. But what's left after the "centrist" of those votes is removed, is clearly left wing supporters.

The Bloc I would think actually would be right of centre. They were started by splinter Conservatives from Quebec. They may have drifted over time but I would not think they were left wing. One of the reasons the Conservatives (aside from being the Federally governing party) are having trouble in Quebec.

I think Canadians do lean slightly left if you compare us to the Americans. Centre on our scale would be left of the middle ground in the US. But the Conservatives, although right wing, are not that right if you compare them to the Republicans or Tea Partiers in the states.

Just editing here and musing at the fact someone actually gave me a negative rep for this hilarious post.:lol:

Some people take politics very seriously.

 

[JLM]

The Bloc I would think actually would be right of centre. They were started by splinter Conservatives from Quebec. They may have drifted over time but I would not think they were left wing. One of the reasons the Conservatives (aside from being the Federally governing party) are having trouble in Quebec.

I think Canadians do lean slightly left if you compare us to the Americans. Centre on our scale would be left of the middle ground in the US. But the Conservatives, although right wing, are not that right if you compare them to the Republicans or Tea Partiers in the states.



Some people take politics very seriously.

The John Birch Society are about as far right as you can get. Haven't run into any members lately!

Some people take politics very seriously.

Not sane people and definitely not intelligent people, it's sort of like a comic book in the "library" of life.

 

[CDNBear]

The John Birch Society are about as far right as you can get.

That group is insane.

The real funny part is, that group, and extreme left leaning groups, intersect and share common misconceptions and principles.

 

[JLM]

That group is insane.

The real funny part is, that group, and extreme left leaning groups, intersect and share common misconceptions and principles.

Exactly, I was told years ago if you go far enough right you will be far left. Demonstrates quite well the insanity of this "left" and "right".

 

[taxslave]

That group is insane.

The real funny part is, that group, and extreme left leaning groups, intersect and share common misconceptions and principles.

Funny thing about extremists, no matter what way they lean they all want to take away our rights and freedoms because only they know what is good for us. That is why the NDP will never form the government.

 

[Tonington]

The Bloc I would think actually would be right of centre.

Based on what platform? The Bloc Québécois platform - The Globe and Mail

Defense? Monthly pension for life for disabled veterans.

On the economy? Eliminate the two week waiting period for EI, increase EI benefits to 60% from 55%. Increase Canada Summer jobs budget. Impose a 2% tax on incomes between 150,000 and 250,000, a 3% tax on incomes over 250,000. Introduce a tax on non-monetary bonuses.

On Education? Increase federal income transfers for education to the levels in the 1990's. Tax exempt scholarships.

On Criminal matters? They support the long gun registry. They emphasize crime prevention over criminal punishment. They want federal support for victims of crime.

Environment? Federal funding for fast rail service. $750 million for green energy development. Mandatory but free energy assessments for home owners. Ammend building code to increase thermal efficiency, any renovations would neet to meet new code. Electric vehicle support. Absolute targets for greenhouse gas emissions in line with Kyoto protocol.

Seniors? Raise Guaranteed Income Supplement by $110 a month. Automatic qualification for GIS at the age of 65.

Immigration? They would insert a clause that forbids expulsion to any country where they risk torture. Expedite family reunification.

Families? Gradual investments until yearly funding for social housing is $2 Billion.

Food? Increase federal inspection of food producers, hire 1000 new government employees to implement tracability and inspection reports. Increase federal funding by $150 a year, every year, for the next 10 years.
​

Right of center? They want bigger government, more taxes, more welfare, better food safety, and tougher regulations on industrial polluters. That's hardly right of center.

Also, look at where the votes went in Quebec. The Bloc was kicked in the teeth, and the NDP gobbled up the lions share.