Peak Oil is here

[Slim Chance]

I can't see the problem with exploring so see how much is there, that's not drilling. They did explore, the results state that the reserves are fairly small.

No one is going to explore unless there is the potential to produce the find... The areas where they have explored are those points that are within the proximity of existing infrastructure and pipelines (NE BC for example). Further, now that shale gas is a reality, you'll see greater interest in developing those plays.

I'm like many people in BC who don't want to risk damage to the environment for gas guzzing SUVs.

Do the little 4-bangers use gas/oil that are produced without the risk to environment?

 

[Walter]

The peak keeps rising.

 

[Slim Chance]

1. Big oil controlled about 75% of the world's oil forty years ago, now it is 25%.
2. No big oil fields have been discovered for over 40 years.
3. EROEI used to be 100-1 in 1900 as oil gushed out of the ground as anyone could find it by luck and get rich (think Beverly Hillbillies), now it is less than 20-1 as we go deeper into the ground and farther offshore (hello Gulf of Mexico and BP).
4. World consumption is rising but production is flat.

These problems may be solved, but then, maybe not.

1. "Big Oil" has a lot of competition from smaller players today. What that elite groups control is not the issue. That said, Big Oil may not own all the rights, but if you were hoping to use refineries, market or transport your oil - well, you might have to play ball with them.
2. Hibernia, Sable Island, North Sea, West Coast of South America.. There are plenty of major finds.
3. Technology is compensating for that. As well, the price of a bbl is high enough to offset difficult extraction issues.
4. That'll make the price of the commodity rise and encourage more exploration, revisitation of existing fields -hell, maybe the price goes so high that it becomes profitable to set up coal-gasification plants.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

No one is going to explore unless there is the potential to produce the find... The areas where they have explored are those points that are within the proximity of existing infrastructure and pipelines (NE BC for example). Further, now that shale gas is a reality, you'll see greater interest in developing those plays.

Do the little 4-bangers use gas/oil that are produced without the risk to environment?

On the first part we seem to have a chicken and egg problem at present and that is fine with me. Although I'm sure there are hydrocarbons present in commercial quantities, but they aren't going anywhere right now. Otherwise, boy, would you see protests. I would be out there with them.

4 bangers? Most cars are 2 bangers. They fail. Sorry.

 

[darkbeaver]

Don't be so hard on him DB. The green movement depends absolutely on people that want to experience warm-fuzzies and wax poetically about what ought to be.

It'll be a real eye opener for 'em when they figure out that they've only exchanged one master for another.

Eye opening happens too often post someone elses nuts getting crushed. They give chlorophyll a bad name. There's nobody who want's to see green fields, thick forests and fat babies more than I do but it simply can't be got through the present 'economic order' (if you can still say that) we all enjoy at this time. The technology for universal sustainability has existed for thousands of years, it's called family farming and markets, following eons old bio-regional green commonsense and natural scientific smarts accumulated over the generations. I may have been too strident with the eye earlier, I'll retire for the evening and perhaps summon up a tiny grudging apology.:lol:

 

[AnnaG]

As it stands, I can't disagree with you, however, there is a catch-22 here. If the exploration companies believe that there is no appetite for development in BC, they won't aggressively explore the region.

With that in mind, who's to say that there aren't any major fields in BC?

There's about 9.8 billion bbls of oil reserves off the BC coast, and about 25 trillion cu ft of gas. The rest is what we share with AB in the Peace River region. BC's been sifted through pretty thoroughly; mostly for natgas.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

The peak keeps rising.

Taking a quote from the article:

"The increases in total oil and gas reserves comes in large part as a result of higher estimates from Libya and Venezuela, as reported by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries,” the story said. “OPEC also reported larger gas reserves and small oil reserves from Iran.”"

It states, "higher estimates from Libya and Venezuela." Show me an independent audit of these estimates and they will appear credible. Moe reserves are very good of course, but the rubber will hit the road in the next few years as demand increases.

 

[Walter]

Taking a quote from the article:

"The increases in total oil and gas reserves comes in large part as a result of higher estimates from Libya and Venezuela, as reported by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries,” the story said. “OPEC also reported larger gas reserves and small oil reserves from Iran.”"

It states, "higher estimates from Libya and Venezuela." Show me an independent audit of these estimates and they will appear credible. Moe reserves are very good of course, but the rubber will hit the road in the next few years as demand increases.

Why would these countries and OPEC tell us that they had more oil than they really have? It would lead to a price increase if they lowered their reserve estimates.

 

[Tonington]

More oil in Venezuela comes from oil shale. From Libya, likely deeper or more difficult to access deposits. That doesn't falsify peak oil at all. Those are more difficult to access hydrocarbons, which would only be viable when demand outstrips production...the low hanging fruit is gone.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

1. "Big Oil" has a lot of competition from smaller players today. What that elite groups control is not the issue. That said, Big Oil may not own all the rights, but if you were hoping to use refineries, market or transport your oil - well, you might have to play ball with them.
2. Hibernia, Sable Island, North Sea, West Coast of South America.. There are plenty of major finds.
3. Technology is compensating for that. As well, the price of a bbl is high enough to offset difficult extraction issues.
4. That'll make the price of the commodity rise and encourage more exploration, revisitation of existing fields -hell, maybe the price goes so high that it becomes profitable to set up coal-gasification plants.

1. Big Oil with big amounts of oil, now most of this oil is controlled by govts that
often don't care about the market. Which is us.

2. Plenty of major finds? name one with over ten billion barrels that is not under five
miles of ocean or ice. You can't. Off the west coast of Brazil only about 5 billion
barrels has been found. Enough to last the world two months. Rest easy.

3/4. Tech will always be able to find oil. Peak oil doesn't mean we'll run out of the
stuff, it just means it won't be at a low enough price to burn like crazy like we do
now.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

Taking a quote from the article:

"The increases in total oil and gas reserves comes in large part as a result of higher estimates from Libya and Venezuela, as reported by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries,” the story said. “OPEC also reported larger gas reserves and small oil reserves from Iran.”"

It states, "higher estimates from Libya and Venezuela." Show me an independent audit of these estimates and they will appear credible. Moe reserves are very good of course, but the rubber will hit the road in the next few years as demand increases.

Why would these countries and OPEC tell us that they had more oil than they really have? It would lead to a price increase if they lowered their reserve estimates.

I don't pretend to understand how the OPEC system works. They pump what they can to make as much money as they can right now I suppose. Works for them.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

More oil in Venezuela comes from oil shale. From Libya, likely deeper or more difficult to access deposits. That doesn't falsify peak oil at all. Those are more difficult to access hydrocarbons, which would only be viable when demand outstrips production...the low hanging fruit is gone.

Right, which is why Big Oil is going farther and farther offshore and soon, under the ice. Which might not be very nice. We'll be paying more for less.

 

[darkbeaver]

The rotten economy should noticeably lessen demand for oil. Super tankers are cheap now aren't they?

 

[Slim Chance]

1. Big Oil with big amounts of oil, now most of this oil is controlled by govts that
often don't care about the market. Which is us.

If you voluntarily elect to believe that it's all government or multi-nationals with no med or small players, then there's nothing that I can do about that.

2. Plenty of major finds? name one with over ten billion barrels that is not under five miles of ocean or ice. You can't. Off the west coast of Brazil only about 5 billion
barrels has been found. Enough to last the world two months. Rest easy.

That's one find and where the geological structure/conditions allow for one, you can expect many others.

Mexican West coast also has significant plays. Look up PEMEX and you'll get an idea. Hell, Orinco has massive trapped reserves similar to AB/SASK oil sands. The Athabasca hydrocarbons are said to hold enough for a fifty year supply.

We've only scratched the surface in mentioning a few regions/finds. No doubt that more majors will be discovered and developed and as the technology evolves, the cost and capacity to develop previously difficult fields will drop noticeably.

3/4. Tech will always be able to find oil. Peak oil doesn't mean we'll run out of the
stuff, it just means it won't be at a low enough price to burn like crazy like we do
now.

Like I said earlier in the thread; I've been hearing this since I was a little kid... Will it happen; sure it will, but I'm of the opinion that it won't be in my lifetime.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

If you voluntarily elect to believe that it's all government or multi-nationals with no med or small players, then there's nothing that I can do about that.

That's one find and where the geological structure/conditions allow for one, you can expect many others.

Mexican West coast also has significant plays. Look up PEMEX and you'll get an idea. Hell, Orinco has massive trapped reserves similar to AB/SASK oil sands. The Athabasca hydrocarbons are said to hold enough for a fifty year supply.

We've only scratched the surface in mentioning a few regions/finds. No doubt that more majors will be discovered and developed and as the technology evolves, the cost and capacity to develop previously difficult fields will drop noticeably.


Like I said earlier in the thread; I've been hearing this since I was a little kid... Will it happen; sure it will, but I'm of the opinion that it won't be in my lifetime.

Scratched the surface? Big and little oil have been looking furiously for new reserves and they don't seem to be there. And even if you make a big find, Russia, or some other country will nationalize it. Not fun.

PEMEX frequently imports oil from the US. PEMEX is a disaster. A wprst case scenario. The tar sand by 2015 should produce about 3 million barrels per day. The world now consumes 85 M BBL per day. Looking good.

 

[Slim Chance]

Scratched the surface? Big and little oil have been looking furiously for new reserves and they don't seem to be there. And even if you make a big find, Russia, or some other country will nationalize it. Not fun.

PEMEX frequently imports oil from the US. PEMEX is a disaster. A wprst case scenario. The tar sand by 2015 should produce about 3 million barrels per day. The world now consumes 85 M BBL per day. Looking good.

Historically, we have not observed massive finds on a monthly basis or anything like that, most discoveries are moderate. Further, the big finds that are publicized relate to those that are (relatively) easy to extract. Add into this the capacity to transport and refine the product and you complicate the economics more. Personally, I would not be surprised if there were sizable reserves in central Sask and MB that would be exploited if the infrastructure was in place. I'm only speculating, but, it does make a lot of sense.

In terms of your comment about PEMEX, the company may not be run as effectively as others, but that does not negate the reality that their surveying has pointed to some interesting, high reserve areas.

 

[Extrafire]

The myth of peak oil has been around since we first started using it as lamp fuel. It will be revived again in coming decades. Not to worry. We can make oil out of garbage and sewage for $80 per barrel, out of coal for $28 per barrel. It's been said that if the US converted all its waste it could eliminate the need for oil imports. Not only that, it would eliminate its land fill and sewage disposal problems. If they did, it would crash the world price for oil, of course, making competition rather difficult for the US, but I think it will happen eventually.

But even if we have reached the peak, no problem. It's been said that we have 800 years worth of oil at this time. Considering the way technology has been increasing over the last century, I really doubt we'll still be utilizing it by then the way we are now. I agree with former Saudi oil minister, Sheikh Yamani who said, "The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil." although he was way wrong about the timeframe.

Sheikh Yamani predicts price crash as age of oil ends - Telegraph

 

[Kakato]

I'm in fort macmurray now and i can tell you theres no slowdown in future production,were trying out a new technology that will take the lifespan of a tailings pond from a very long time to under ten years before they can be reclaimed,it's all new and when improved and perfected on will make oilsands even cheaper to mine and produce and of course more environmentally friendly.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

Historically, we have not observed massive finds on a monthly basis or anything like that, most discoveries are moderate. Further, the big finds that are publicized relate to those that are (relatively) easy to extract. Add into this the capacity to transport and refine the product and you complicate the economics more. Personally, I would not be surprised if there were sizable reserves in central Sask and MB that would be exploited if the infrastructure was in place. I'm only speculating, but, it does make a lot of sense.

In terms of your comment about PEMEX, the company may not be run as effectively as others, but that does not negate the reality that their surveying has pointed to some interesting, high reserve areas.

PEMEX is a good example of a third world company having oil then screwing up the bonanza. Peak oil is also a political problem almost as much as it is a geological problem. For some countries it is a curse, but in Mexico it has benefitted many people.

In Mexico, oil is power against the gringo. There are votes denying it to other countries. It's very different there.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

The myth of peak oil has been around since we first started using it as lamp fuel. It will be revived again in coming decades. Not to worry. We can make oil out of garbage and sewage for $80 per barrel, out of coal for $28 per barrel. It's been said that if the US converted all its waste it could eliminate the need for oil imports. Not only that, it would eliminate its land fill and sewage disposal problems. If they did, it would crash the world price for oil, of course, making competition rather difficult for the US, but I think it will happen eventually.

But even if we have reached the peak, no problem. It's been said that we have 800 years worth of oil at this time. Considering the way technology has been increasing over the last century, I really doubt we'll still be utilizing it by then the way we are now. I agree with former Saudi oil minister, Sheikh Yamani who said, "The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil." although he was way wrong about the timeframe.

Sheikh Yamani predicts price crash as age of oil ends - Telegraph

The myth of peak oil. Hmmm

Okay show me the evidence, or refernces that people were talking about peak oil over one hundred years ago. They weren't. Why there are fairy tales going around on such a serious topic like peak oil is baffling. Too many Canadians are out in left field here. This ignorance will cost us.

Countries like Canada have a lot of waste because cheap oil allows us to have a lot of cheap stuff. The "throwaway society" is a relatively new concept. They didn't have it in the hungry thirties. In case you didn't know, the 1930s had a major depression. Times were very bad, people had just enough to eat. Food was not fast then either.