Peak Oil is here

[Bar Sinister]

I suspect Slim may be right on this one, at least in the short term. Running out of oil has been a popular theme for many years both from conservationists and large oil companies, but we haven't run out yet. The first time I saw an article like this was during the 1970s and it predicted that we would run out of oil by about the turn of the century. However, there is a strong message in the thread and that is sooner or later oil resources will run out, especially with consumption increasing world wide. It may be wise not to actually wait for it to happen. And even with the oil (tar?) sands there is not enough new oil coming on stream to make up for the increased consumption of the last three decades.

 

[Slim Chance]

In the end, you are right... Oil won't last forever.

What i find particularly interesting are the potential underlying reasons that this threat gets revived every decade or so.

I can fully understand why the oil industry would want to promote this message and i can see why the alt-energy sector would promote it as well... As for the rest of the groups that bang this drum; I'm at a loss for an answer.

 

[Liberalman]

The myth of peak oil serves two masters:
1) Lefties who want to take away my liberty
2) Oil companies who want to take away my money

You forgot Righties who want to take away your rights

 

[Slim Chance]

Righties like the NRA

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

I can't disagree with that synopsis; however, the kicker boils down to the assumption that we will have no source of fuel to power the economy.

Coal is the most abundant (non-renewable) resource that is widely found throughout the world. It may not be the clean-option, but I doubt that may will complain if there are no options remaining.

Gasoline powers 90% of our transportation system. There no alternative here. We need ten years to prepare and because oil companies kept information about how much oil they had secret, we essentially have no warning because there is no public information about peak oil to make politicians act. Losing one source of energy is a major event in a society, it happens once a century or millenium. Market signals are inadequate.

 

[AnnaG]

Gasoline powers 90% of our transportation system. There no alternative here.

BS General Motors had an electric car in production in 1996. They canned it and squished loads of the cars. Now they are wishing they had kept producing them.

We need ten years to prepare and because oil companies kept information about how much oil they had secret, we essentially have no warning because there is no public information about peak oil to make politicians act. Losing one source of energy is a major event in a society, it happens once a century or millenium. Market signals are inadequate.

I agree it will take time, but it is inevitable and the sooner people accept the inevitability, the better.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

Peak oil is here? I was reading a few months ago in a 2008 thread that said peak oil was here then.

Well, yes, it was here then but the world economy fell into recession so demand for oil weakened. Once demand picks up, and it will as China, Indian, Russia and other developing nations recover, expect to hear more about peak oil. China bought 15 million cars in 2009, they weren't supposed to hit that number until 2020 or so.

Industrialization is increasing exponentially, oil production is not even increasing, it is flat, and 86 million barrels per day. And there is 3-4% deterioration of supply each year. Supply and demand are moving in opposite directions.

 

[AnnaG]

Well, yes, it was here then but the world economy fell into recession so demand for oil weakened. Once demand picks up, and it will as China, Indian, Russia and other developing nations recover, expect to hear more about peak oil. China bought 15 million cars in 2009, they weren't supposed to hit that number until 2020 or so.

Industrialization is increasing exponentially, oil production is not even increasing, it is flat, and 86 million barrels per day. And there is 3-4% deterioration of supply each year. Supply and demand are moving in opposite directions.

Eventually the demand for oil will dwindle to nothing as we develop better sources. Which is fine by me. IMO, the stuff should never have been utilized in the first place.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

In the end, you are right... Oil won't last forever.

What i find particularly interesting are the potential underlying reasons that this threat gets revived every decade or so.

I can fully understand why the oil industry would want to promote this message and i can see why the alt-energy sector would promote it as well... As for the rest of the groups that bang this drum; I'm at a loss for an answer.

Forever is now getting very close. The oil industry is going to get royally screwed for their suppressing information regarding their oil reserves. The govt will have to take over this industry as it is a vital resource.

Revived every decade or so? Some sort of selective recollection seems to be going on here. Ten years ago few heard of peak oil, let alone talked about it.


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Energy Tribune- Saudis to Turn Increasingly to Oil to Meet Power Needs

Saudis to Turn Increasingly to Oil to Meet Power Needs
By Andres Cala
Posted on Mar. 24, 2010

Saudi Arabia’s booming economy and soaring demand for electricity is increasing the kingdom’s reliance on oil to produce power. By 2012, it may be using 1.2 million barrels a day – more than twice current levels -- to meet its electricity needs. This increasing use of oil is occurring because the Saudis’ natural gas production cannot keep up with power demand.

The gas shortage is occurring even though Saudi Aramco has been working to to boost natural gas production. But a combination of reasons and trends point to the inevitable increased use of oil, a factor that could have deep impact on world oil markets in the future, despite Saudi Arabia’s current spare oil production capacity of about 4 million barrels per day.

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Even the Saudis want to use more oil, so there is less for everyone else. Worldwide, world oil demand is on an upswing. Those who can pay will be fine, those who can't will suffer. Problem is, everyone wants to use more oil, but their not finding new oil. Something has to give soon.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

BS General Motors had an electric car in production in 1996. They canned it and squished loads of the cars. Now they are wishing they had kept producing them. I agree it will take time, but it is inevitable and the sooner people accept the inevitability, the better.

Yes, such a mistake, a huge error, a gross error of stupidity. You would have thought that GM, likening itself to an empire, would have made an electric car just to be cool, or just to show off its cred as a with it new tech company. But shortly after they killed the electric car, they started making SUVs, a product using dead end old truck technology and that used oil like it was going out of style. They gave themselves a lost decade. The bean counters liked SUVs because profits went up.

However, to make amends we need millions of new cars and new infrastructure. That takes time, and cheap oil makes cars and every thing else. Without cheap oil, we can't make enough electric cars. A Whole new system has to be set up and get used to the new reality. Convincing someone of a new idea takes time, implementing it can take even long.

Many people think electric cars suck, they have less power, you can't travel far with them due to recharging issues, the new tech is buggy, etc.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

Eventually the demand for oil will dwindle to nothing as we develop better sources. Which is fine by me. IMO, the stuff should never have been utilized in the first place.

The demand for oil will never dwindle, it is far too useful.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

In the end, you are right... Oil won't last forever.

What i find particularly interesting are the potential underlying reasons that this threat gets revived every decade or so.

I can fully understand why the oil industry would want to promote this message and i can see why the alt-energy sector would promote it as well... As for the rest of the groups that bang this drum; I'm at a loss for an answer.

Self preservation of society. Being prepared helps.

 

[darkbeaver]

Great, a socialist takeover of the western oil monolith, something I've advocated for years, to be met with spine chilling howls and splattering of froth all about the stage. The Planetary Hydro-Carbon Ministries time has come. The junkies will surrender pound for pound the very flesh off their bones.:lol: It may not be that dramatic. It depends on who directs the epic.

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

Great, a socialist takeover of the western oil monolith, something I've advocated for years, to be met with spine chilling howls and splattering of froth all about the stage. The Planetary Hydro-Carbon Ministries time has come. The junkies will surrender pound for pound the very flesh off their bones.:lol: It may not be that dramatic. It depends on who directs the epic.

You see, there is plenty of oil. It's not disappearing, no sir. However, life as we know it does not continue at $500/barrel. So the govt must step in and allocate this precious resource for the common/communal/socialistic good, not just the capitlalist lackeys/rich. We will leave a world of abundance to a world of rationing. It will suck, it will be like England after WW2.

 

[AnnaG]

The demand for oil will never dwindle, it is far too useful.

That's your opinion, but as we make and use better lubricants, there will be increasingly less and less demand for crude and that will result in its cost going up and up until the oil companies see no further profit in refining it. Then, it will be kaputsky for crude.

 

[YukonJack]

I don't care what propels my car from point A to point B, but it has to be something more practical than solar panels or wind turbines.

Presently, and for the foreseeable future, it is gasoline, obtained from crude oil.

 

[AnnaG]

I can see you not having a choice. Others have choices, though.

 

[darkbeaver]

You see, there is plenty of oil. It's not disappearing, no sir. However, life as we know it does not continue at $500/barrel. So the govt must step in and allocate this precious resource for the common/communal/socialistic good, not just the capitlalist lackeys/rich. We will leave a world of abundance to a world of rationing. It will suck, it will be like England after WW2.

It is a war for the welfare of the world after all, isn't it? Rationing will help with stability and maintenance of any new CO2 world order we may be lucky enough to fabricate and enjoy. Myself, I'm not going to mind your suffering for my grandchildren, just let me thank you while I still can, and my grandkids thank you as well. We all have to suck a bit for the greening of earth. Who's playing that little violin? It's moved me to tears it has.:lol:

 

[dumpthemonarchy]

It is a war for the welfare of the world after all, isn't it? Rationing will help with stability and maintenance of any new CO2 world order we may be lucky enough to fabricate and enjoy. Myself, I'm not going to mind your suffering for my grandchildren, just let me thank you while I still can, and my grandkids thank you as well. We all have to suck a bit for the greening of earth. Who's playing that little violin? It's moved me to tears it has.:lol:

Cheer up! It won't be all bad. But there could be war, oops, they've already started, it seems. Good thing those wars are over there rather than on our green little bit of earth. But peak oil will solve global warming pretty darn quick.

A war for the welfare of the world? What's that?

 

[darkbeaver]

Peak oil will build character.:smile: