Analysts: More Libyan bloodshed could prompt U.S., NATO intervention

ironsides

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The Libyans must settle this themselves. Outside interference should be limited to:

No Fly Zone for Libyan military aircraft.
Full arms embargo.
Freeze all Libyan government assets and hold in trust.
Foreign military activity on the ground restricted to guarding convoys of humanitarian food and medical aid.

I agree with two out of four things you mentioned.
Full arms embargo.
Freeze all Libyan government assets and hold in trust.


As for enforcing a no fly zone, both sides have aircraft and are pretty equal plus since neither side has take advantage of it, leave it alone. (only put our side at a unnecessary risk)

The humanitarian food and medical aid. could also be left to both sides to handle. Starving one side or another could help end this quicker, but it doesn't seem that either side is short of food, water or medical supplies. Our effort would better help those fleeing the conflict.

Stay out of the conflict, let them settle it.
 

Trotz

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Libyan tanks didn't amount to much in the Libyan-Chad war.

I think some people here would be surprised how useless tanks are in modern warfare. Most tanks need a logistical convoy, the convoy can be intercepted, the tank can be taken out with a missile and the tanks can be heard from kilometers away.
I suspect by now, the mob in Eastern Libya has about a quarter or half of the missile inventory of the Libyan Army; more enough to take out the armored clunkers that Gaddafi could send at them.

When you have an aircraft carrier parked within easy striking distance and your media is belching humanitarian rescue scenarios you are already in the conflict up to your necks and may have been for months.

No one is going to park a carrier off Libya;
Gaddafi probably has a couple of anti-Carrier missiles in his inventory. Hence, it'ld be much smarter just to base things in Malta. Anything you shoot at Malta will be blown up as an international crime against the Maltese within no time.
 

earth_as_one

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Of course, the Maltese would have to agree.

Regarding "No blood for Oil". The US military industrial complex and big oil appear to have been caught off guard by this turn of events. Certainly they weren't agitating for it. This is a fortuitous turn of events which they could capitalize on with far less manipulation than was required for the Iraq invasion. Libyans have revolted against their government. Iraq was peaceful when the US invaded. that makes a huge difference.

Certainly no one should be sending arms to Libya right now.

eao:The UNSC has a mandate to authorize force to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe...
The UN has a mandate to prevent humanitarian catastrophies? They aren't very succesful at that.

How do you plan on reducing the level of violence with simply humanitarian aid?

Mandate is the wrong adjective, since the right to is self appointed.
wiki:
Most states clearly would prefer to secure UN authorization before using force for humanitarian purposes, and would probably agree that the Security Council, acting under Chapter VII, can authorize military action in response to severe atrocities and other humanitarian emergencies that it concludes constitute a threat to peace and security. The understanding of what constitutes threats to international peace has been radically broadened since the 1990s to include such issues as mass displacement, and the UN Security Council has authorized use of force in situations that many states would have previously viewed as “internal” conflicts
 
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EagleSmack

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wiki:
Most states clearly would prefer to secure UN authorization before using force for humanitarian purposes, and would probably agree that the Security Council, acting under Chapter VII, can authorize military action in response to severe atrocities and other humanitarian emergencies that it concludes constitute a threat to peace and security. The understanding of what constitutes threats to international peace has been radically broadened since the 1990s to include such issues as mass displacement, and the UN Security Council has authorized use of force in situations that many states would have previously viewed as “internal” conflicts

Ok. That sounds great.

I'll ask again... how does humanitarian aid reduce the level of violence?

As to your cut and paste... that all sounds wonderful. What is the size of the UN army? How does it get there?

The UN is nothing more than a loud barking chihuahua when you really get down to it. In fact, it is less than that as chihuahuas can get annoying when they keep barking.
 

earth_as_one

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Ok. That sounds great.

What eao wrote: I'm in favor of intervening only to deliver humanitarian aid and reduce the level of lethal violence, not determine the outcome or invade and occupy.

ES: I'll ask again... how does humanitarian aid reduce the level of violence?
????

I'm in favor of intervening only to:

1) deliver humanitarian aid
and
2) reduce the level of lethal violence
I'm not in favor of intervening to
1) determine the outcome
or
2) invade and occupy
As to your cut and paste... that all sounds wonderful. What is the size of the UN army? How does it get there?

The UN is nothing more than a loud barking chihuahua when you really get down to it. In fact, it is less than that as chihuahuas can get annoying when they keep barking.


...the Security Council, acting under Chapter VII, can authorize military action in response to severe atrocities and other humanitarian emergencies...


Says nothing about a UN army. The UNSC could authorize a country like China or Italy... or an alliance of nations like NATO or the League of Arab States to use force to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.


Rwanda's 1994 genocide would be an example where the UN failed to act to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.


If Americans hadn't made up a pack of lies to invade and occupy Iraq in 2003, the US and NATO could have snatched this plum without even having to invent non-existent threats. Instead the US and Europe are too weak financially and politically (war weariness) to intervene to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Libya.


well if the US and NATO don't want the job, then the next candidates would be Russia and China. Of the two, Libya's oil probably has a greater strategic interest to China. Since China would be paying the bill, China would have the biggest influence on Libya's political evolution.


Hey China! How does the People's State of Libya sound?
 
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ironsides

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Analysts: More Libyan bloodshed could prompt U.S., NATO intervention

CNN.com
February 25, 2011
Excerpt:
(CNN) -- If the U.S. military were to intervene in an increasingly chaotic Libya, it would most likely be part of a NATO action in which Libyan bloodshed has reached a humanitarian crisis, analysts said Thursday.


As reports emerged Thursday about deadly clashes between leader Moammar Gadhafi's forces and anti-government protesters in the town of Zawiya near Tunisia, analysts highlighted how Gadhafi has already pledged to fight a rebellion to martyrdom.
Military intervention "is something which I hope doesn't happen, but it looks as though at some point that it should happen," said Simon Henderson, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.


Analysts: More Libyan bloodshed could prompt U.S., NATO intervention - CNN.com


________________________

Should the United States and NATO intervene to stop innocent civilians from being slaughtered by Forces and Mercenaries loyal to Gaddafi?

One possible solution is pressure on Libya's neighbors to step in and put a stop to this but that could spiral into an even bigger mess.
The rebels won the battle. There doing just fine by themselves.
 

EagleSmack

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...the Security Council, acting under Chapter VII, can authorize military action in response to severe atrocities and other humanitarian emergencies...

They can authorize... but it is tough getting nations to fight.

Says nothing about a UN army. The UNSC could authorize a country like China or Italy... or an alliance of nations like NATO or the League of Arab States to use force to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

Sure they can authorize a whole bunch of nations.

UN: "China you are authorized to use force!"

China: No thanks

UN: "Ok... Italy... you are authorized to interneve with force!"

Italy: Hmmmm.... yeah... I'm just not feeling it. No thanks.

Rwanda's 1994 genocide would be an example where the UN failed to act to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

There are many examples. If a group is intent on fighting, no UN Peace Keeping Force is going to stop them. In Yugoslavia the Serbs marched right in a UN Compound, took out all the Muslim males and drove them away to be killed. UN Forces stepped aside.

The Dutch Commander was asked by a reporter...

"What is going on?"

He helplessly answered ... "You know what's going on."

That's the UN


If Americans hadn't made up a pack of lies to invade and occupy Iraq in 2003, the US and NATO could have snatched this plum without even having to invent non-existent threats. Instead the US and Europe are too weak financially and politically (war weariness) to intervene to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in Libya.

And the difference between Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein is what?

well if the US and NATO don't want the job, then the next candidates would be Russia and China. Of the two, Libya's oil probably has a greater strategic interest to China. Since China would be paying the bill, China would have the biggest influence on Libya's political evolution.

So... you are actually advocating a TRUE and REAL war for oil? EAO I am shocked? The PLUM being Libya's Oil? Suddenly it is OK for a force to invade and sack resources and nation build. It's A-OK as long as it isn't the Yanks.

I highly doubt you will see Chinese or Russians on the ground in force in Libya.

Hey China! How does the People's State of Libya sound?

Wow.

Is that really how you feel?
 

earth_as_one

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Comparing various evacuation efforts:


Beijing
As tens of thousands of migrant workers from a multitude of countries languish at Libya’s border with Tunisia, trapped in a humanitarian crisis trying to flee mounting violence, Chinese TV viewers are being treated to a very different sight.


Wednesday morning they were shown crowds of laughing and cheering Chinese evacuees aboard a Greek ferry, escorted by a Chinese frigate, safely en route to the Mediterranean island of Crete.
The Chinese government has chartered seven ships, sent 15 civilian flights a day and deployed military planes to bring 32,000 Chinese workers out of Libya over the past week. The unprecedented but apparently well-organized evacuation has highlighted China's growing role in the region, and despite crises spreading across North Africa and the Middle East, Beijing has shown no sign of wanting to lessen that role.
Libya unrest tests China's interests in the Middle East - CSMonitor.com

How much do you know about China? Take our quiz.






>>>


* BANGLADESH: The International Organisation for Migration (IOM), said it had helped evacuate 400 Bangladeshis via Turkey on Tuesday. More than 50,000 Bangladeshis work for Libyan and international firms in Libya, Foreign Ministry officials said.


BOSNIA: So far half of the 1,500 Bosnians living in Libya have been evacuated, the Foreign Ministry said, and Bosnian authorities will organise another flight to evacuate workers from Sirte.


* BRITAIN: HMS York arrived at Benghazi to pick up any remaining British nationals wishing to leave. A Rapid Deployment Team will be on board to provide consular assistance, the Foreign Office said. There are up to 150 British nationals left in Libya.


* CANADA: Canada has moved additional aircraft into the region that can reach Canadians working in more remote areas.
-- However Libyan authorities on Tuesday denied a Canadian air force aircraft permission to enter Libyan air space and land in Tripoli to pick up oil workers. The C-130 Hercules plane had left from Malta and has now turned back, airport sources said
(eao: Pathetic! Our response is about as good as Bangladesh. Most Canadians that have escaped Libya so far were rescued by Canadian allies, not the Canadian government. It looks like Canada is still in the planning stages to get the rest out. Our frigate should be there in a few more weeks)

CHINA: According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, China has evacuated around 32,000 nationals from Libya.
-- A Chinese navy frigate, Xuzhou, reached waters off Libya on Tuesday to offer support and protection for ships evacuating Chinese nationals.

GERMANY: German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said on Tuesday 46 Germans remained in Libya, 36 of which are in Tripoli. More than 600 Germans have already left Libya.


* INDIA: A quarter of about 18,000 Indians, most of them employed in the oil, construction and health sectors in Libya, have been brought out after the government chartered cruise ships, and through special flights of the state carrier Air India. NIGERIA: The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) said it planned to evacuate 2,000 of its nationals. Nigeria said it had flown 1,035 of its citizens back to Abuja, on two chartered flights on Sunday, with about 1,000 more to follow in the coming days.
-- Muhammad Sani-Sidi, head of NEMA, told Reuters it was a voluntary evacuation and the 2,000 were Nigerians who had registered a desire to leave. He estimated there were 10,000 Nigerians in Libya.


* PHILIPPINES: Up to 9,231 Filipinos have left Libya, of which 859 have arrived in Manila. About 26,000 Filipinos work mostly in the medical and oil and gas sectors in Libya.


* TURKEY: The prime minister's office said in a statement on Wednesday that a total 21,505 people have now been evacuated from Libya to Turkey on 67 planes, five ships, one frigate and via transport organised by private companies. Of that total, 2,982 people were not Turkish citizens. The total number of evacuees will reach 22,554 once a ferry boat with 1,049 passengers, including 888 foreigners, arrives in Istanbul from Tripoli, the statement said.


VIETNAM: Vietnam has evacuated about 1,300 of its citizens from Libya out of 10,482 living and working there.


OTHERS:


* ALONG LIBYA'S BORDERS:
-- A French Foreign Ministry spokesman said some 170,000 people have fled Libya since the start of the uprising.
-- British officials said 85,000 mainly Egyptian migrant workers were massed across the Tunisian border, with a further 40,000 waiting on the Libyan side.
-- Britain said it would charter three commercial passenger aircraft to fly 6,000 people back to Egypt over the next three days. The first two planes will leave Britain on Wednesday for Djerba in Tunisia.
-- France will send military transport planes and a naval landing ship to evacuate 5,000 refugees within the next week, its Foreign Ministry said.
-- French Armed Forces spokesman Colonel Thierry Burkhard said a naval amphibious landing vessel should arrive in the Mediterranean within two days, as part of the operation. (Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Compiled and edited by David Cutler, London Editorial Reference Unit)
FACTBOX-Libya evacuations by country | News by Country | Reuters
 

EagleSmack

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Moving the goal posts are you?

Basically these are just nations getting their people out. There is a huge difference between a Chinese frigate escorting a ferry to Greece than a Chinese Army Division ditty-bopping through the sands of Libya.

Unless Chinese ships can drive through the desert now. ;)
 

earth_as_one

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They can authorize... but it is tough getting nations to fight.



Sure they can authorize a whole bunch of nations.

UN: "China you are authorized to use force!"

China: No thanks

UN: "Ok... Italy... you are authorized to interneve with force!"

Italy: Hmmmm.... yeah... I'm just not feeling it. No thanks.

eao: I guess if the US could justify Iraq, then China should be able to justify Libya. How Libya would end up would be "inspired" by the Chinese model, just like Iraq was "inspired" by the US to adopt a capitalistic democracy.

There are many examples. If a group is intent on fighting, no UN Peace Keeping Force is going to stop them. In Yugoslavia the Serbs marched right in a UN Compound, took out all the Muslim males and drove them away to be killed. UN Forces stepped aside.

The Dutch Commander was asked by a reporter...

"What is going on?"

He helplessly answered ... "You know what's going on."

That's the UN




And the difference between Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein is what?
eao: Wrong question.

Right question:
And the difference between Libya and Iraq is what?

Libya could be a humanitarian catastrophe. The Libyan government appears to have declared war on the Libyan people rioting in the street.

Iraq was peaceful humanitarian problem. At the time of the US invasion, the Iraqi people were quietly in their homes.

BTW, Iraq's humanitarian problem could have been resolved by lifting economic sanctions imposed on Iraq. Remeber how the sanctions couldn't be lifted until Iraq proved they no longer possessed WMDs (a logical impossibility) As a result, hundred of thousands of Iraqi children continued to die from malnutrition and disease long after Iraq had been disarmed.



So... you are actually advocating a TRUE and REAL war for oil? EAO I am shocked? The PLUM being Libya's Oil? Suddenly it is OK for a force to invade and sack resources and nation build. It's A-OK as long as it isn't the Yanks.

I highly doubt you will see Chinese or Russians on the ground in force in Libya.



Wow.

Is that really how you feel?


The Libyans must choose their system. At the same time, I would expect a future Libyan government would maintain friendly relations with who ever came forward in their time of need.

The US never liberated Iraq. They made up an excuse to invade, occupy, and hand out favorable oil concessions to Western Corporations. Iraqis don't own their oil. They have no say and only get a small cut, which is why Iraqis are out rioting on the streets too.
 
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EagleSmack

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...the Security Council, acting under Chapter VII, can authorize military action in response to severe atrocities and other humanitarian emergencies...

Says nothing about a UN army. The UNSC could authorize a country like China or Italy... or an alliance of nations like NATO or the League of Arab States to use force to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

Rwanda's 1994 genocide would be an example where the UN failed to act to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

Check out this little tidbit I found...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE CASE AGAINST KOFI ANNAN
The bodies were still warm when Lieutenant Ron Rutten found them: nine corpses in civilian clothes lying crumpled by a stream, each shot in the back at close range. It was July 12, 1995, and the UN-declared “safe area” of Srebrenica had fallen the previous day. The lush pastures of eastern Bosnia were about to become Europe’s bloodiest killing fields since 1945.

Refugees poured into the UN compound. But the Dutch peacekeepers (Dutchbat) were overwhelmed and the Serbs confiscated their weapons. “From the moment I found those bodies, it was obvious to me that the Bosnian Serbs planned to kill all the men,” Rutten said. He watched horrified as Dutch troops guided the men and boys onto the Serb buses.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Heck... The Dutch UN Security Forces even helped the Serbians load up the busses! Do you see what I mean by calling the UN a barking chihuahua?

The Libyans must choose their system. At the same time, I would expect a future Libyan government would maintain friendly relations with who ever came forward in their time of need.

Where does "The People's Republic of Libya" come into play then?

The US never liberated Iraq. They made up an excuse to invade, occupy, and hand out favorable oil concessions to Western Corporations. Iraqis don't own their oil. All they get is a cut.

blahblahblah.

You've been out again EAO. Whenever you go this route I know you are doing the Dance of the Owned.

Just stop the hypocricy for once.
 

earth_as_one

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Moving the goal posts are you?

Basically these are just nations getting their people out. There is a huge difference between a Chinese frigate escorting a ferry to Greece than a Chinese Army Division ditty-bopping through the sands of Libya.

Unless Chinese ships can drive through the desert now. ;)

I was complaining about Canada's pathetic disorganized, too little, too late efforts...The US and Europe save Canadians, not Canada.

Compare that with China:
...crowds of laughing and cheering Chinese evacuees aboard a Greek ferry, escorted by a Chinese frigate, safely en route to the Mediterranean island of Crete.The Chinese government has chartered seven ships, sent 15 civilian flights a day and deployed military planes to bring 32,000 Chinese workers out of Libya over the past week. The unprecedented but apparently well-organized evacuation has highlighted China's growing role in the region,...
Libya unrest tests China's interests in the Middle East - CSMonitor.com
 

earth_as_one

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Who ever rescues Libyans, gets the biggest say in how Libya develops. I see nothing in the UN charter which states that humanitarian intervention in failed states like Libya, must promote a capitalist democratic government.

It should be up to which ever country that volunteers its military services at UNSC to decide which representative system they'd support. As long as the new Libyan Politburo was elected by Libyans and the Libyans were happy, then more power to China for taking the initiative.

Personally I think a system modeled after the Iroquois Confederacy would best transition a tribal based dictatorship into a representative government.
 

EagleSmack

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Who ever rescues Libyans, gets the biggest say in how Libya develops. I see nothing in the UN charter which states that humanitarian intervention in failed states like Libya, must promote a capitalist democratic government.

I see nothing in the UN charter that says it must be a communist government.

It should be up to which ever country that volunteers its military services at UNSC to decide which representative system they'd support.

LMAO! Where in the Charter does it say that?

As long as the new Libyan Politburo was elected by Libyans and the Libyans were happy, then more power to China for taking the initiative.

ROTFLMAO

You're serious aren't you?!?!?!

Personally I think a system modeled after the Iroquois Confederacy would best transition a tribal based dictatorship into a representative government.

Might makes right?

That is what the Iroquois Confederacy was based on. They were bigger and stronger and they dissolved other tribes. The Iroquious Confederacy did more to destroy the culture of OTHER Native Americans than the US Government ever did.
 

earth_as_one

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Really? Do tell.



So basically, China is doing what every other country is doing... getting their people out.

Some countries like Canada and Bangladesh are having problems evacuating their citizens. The problem these two countries appear to be having are a lack of resources and a coherent plan.

Canada's Evacuation Efforts
...Canada has had trouble organizing evacuations for the Canadians stuck in Libya over the past two weeks. At least two charter planes landed in Tripoli but left empty, because there were apparently no Canadians at the airport waiting to be flown out. And a C-17 military transport was denied landing rights in Libya last week and sat on the tarmac in Rome for days awaiting the necessary approvals...
China's Evacuation Efforts would be an example of having a plan and sufficient resources:
...crowds of laughing and cheering Chinese evacuees aboard a Greek ferry, escorted by a Chinese frigate, safely en route to the Mediterranean island of Crete.The Chinese government has chartered seven ships, sent 15 civilian flights a day and deployed military planes to bring 32,000 Chinese workers out of Libya over the past week. The unprecedented but apparently well-organized evacuation has highlighted China's growing role in the region...
Libya unrest tests China's interests in the Middle East - CSMonitor.com


Canada's government is an international embarrassment.


It's hard to be a proud Canadian when our government is so incompetent. I almost feel like I should apologize:

Excuse me I'm Canadian. I'm sorry... I know, I know.. we are led by incompetents. What can I say? I never voted for those idiots, only about 35% of Canadians are that dumb.

I see nothing in the UN charter that says it must be a communist government.
eao: I see nothing in the UN Charter that says it has to be a capitalistic government.


LMAO! Where in the Charter does it say that?
eao: It doesn't. But if the Chinese are paying the bill and the Americans aren't, then why should Libya's new system be modeled after the US rather than China? Did the Chinese have any say in how the US shaped Iraq's government?

ROTFLMAO

You're serious aren't you?!?!?!



Might makes right?

That is what the Iroquois Confederacy was based on. They were bigger and stronger and they dissolved other tribes. The Iroquious Confederacy did more to destroy the culture of OTHER Native Americans than the US Government ever did.

The American constitution was strongly influenced by the Great Law of Peace:
...the democratic ideals of the Gayanashagowa provided a significant inspiration to Benjamin Franklin, James Madison and other framers of the United States Constitution....

... John Rutledge of South Carolina, delegate to the Constitutional Convention, is said to have read lengthy tracts of Iroquoian law to the other framers, beginning with the words "We, the people, to form a union, to establish peace, equity, and order...

...the US Congress passed Concurrent Resolution 331 to recognize the influence of the Iroquois Constitution upon the US Constitution and Bill of Rights.[3]
Great Law of Peace - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


...According to tradition, the League was formed through the efforts of two men, Deganawida, sometimes known as the Great Peacemaker, and Hiawatha. They brought a message, known as the Great Law of Peace, to the squabbling Iroquoian nations. The nations who joined the League were the Seneca, Onondaga, Oneida, Cayuga and Mohawk. Once they ceased most of their infighting, the Iroquois rapidly became one of the strongest forces in 17th- and 18th-century northeastern North America. According to legend, an evil Onondaga chieftain named Tadodaho was the last to be converted to the ways of peace by The Great Peacemaker and Hiawatha. He became the spiritual leader of the Haudenosaunee.[17] This is said to have occurred at Onondaga Lake near Syracuse, New York. The title Tadodaho is still used for the league's spiritual leader, the fiftieth chief, who sits with the Onondaga in council. He is the only one of the fifty to have been chosen by the entire Haudenosaunee people. The current Tadodaho is Sid Hill of the Onondaga Nation...
Iroquois - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Gee who would have thought cooperation and sharing would lead to prosperity and peace. (at least within the group)

Libya, used to be a Monarchy, but their internal power alliances have always been tribal based. The Iroquois Confederacy is a tribal based democratic-ish system. I'm not saying Libyans should adopt any system. I'm speculating that some sort of tribal based representative democracy might be a better fit than adopting the American plutocratic capitalist democracy model or the Chinese autocratic socialist capitalist model.
 
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BaalsTears

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American forces should not be used for any purpose other than defense of the lives and interests of Americans. If Obama uses force in Libya for humanitarian purposes any American deaths or injuries will be blamed on him. I suspect that threat in and of itself is enough to deter Obama.
 

gopher

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''the Security Council, acting under Chapter VII, can authorize military action in response to severe atrocities and other humanitarian emergencies...''

Uzbek, next??
 

eh1eh

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They will have to do something. The last thing the US wants is to deal with a free nation.