Al Gore won more of the popular vote in 2000...the national polls are weighted geographically. That doesn't really represent the Electoral College (EC).
Since I'm at work and have an hour to kill before I can treat some fish, I'll show you what the state polling looks like.
These are the polls that matter, from the swing states:
Pennsylvania (20 EC votes):
Rasmussen- Obama leads 51-46
Muhlenberg- Obama leads 50-45
Gravis Marketing- Obama leads 48-45
Angus Reid- Obama leads 48-39
Michigan (16 EC votes):
FMW/Baydoun Consulting- Obama leads 46.9- 46.6
Angus Reid- Obama leads 49-40
EPIC/MRA- Obama leads 52-46
Rasmussen- Obama leads 52-45
YouGov- Obama leads 52-42
Colorodo (9 EC votes):
PPP- Obama leads 51-47
Purple Strategies- Obama leads 47-46
Grove- Obama leads 46-43
Keating- Obama leads 48-45
NBC- Tie
Ohio (18 EC votes):
CNN- Obama leads 48-44
Purple Strategies- Obama leads 46-44
American Research Group- Obama leads 49-47
Rasmussen- Tie
Lake Research Partners- Obama leads 46-44
Virginia (13 EC votes):
Purple Strategies: Tie
Rasmussen- Romney leads 50-48
Fox News- Romney leads 46-44
PPP- Obama leads 51-46
Mellman- Obama leads 46-45
Florida (29 EC votes):
Rasmussen- Romney leads 50-48
Susquehanna- Romney leads 51-46
Grove- Obama leads 47-45
Gravis Marketing- Obama leads 50-49
Mellman- Tie
Iowa (6 EC votes):
PPP- Obama leads 49-47
Gravis Marketing- Obama leads 50-46
Rasmussen- Tie
Nevada (6 EC votes):
NBC- Obama leads 50-47
Gravis Marketing- Obama leads 50-49
PPP- Obama leads 49-47
Rasmussen- Obama leads 50-48
American Research Group- Obama leads 49-47
New Hampshire (4 EC votes):
New England College- Obama leads 49-46
Grove- Obama leads 47-44
Rasmussen- Romney leads 50-48
American Research Group- Romney leads 49-47
Lake Research Partners- Obama leads 48-45
North Carolina (15 EC votes):
PPP- Tie
Gravis Marketing- Romney leads 53-45
Grove- Obama leads 47-44
Civitas- Romney leads 48-47
Wisconsin (10 EC votes):
Rasmussen- Tie
Grove- Obama leads 48-43
PPP- Obama leads 51-45
Angus Reid- Obama leads 48-43
These are the states that remain close, where the two candidates will have to make up the EC votes needed to reach 270, and win the Presidential election.
Real Clear Politics right now has it at 201 EC votes for Obama, and 191 EC votes for Romney. That leaves 146 toss-ups, so it's far closer in reality than the picture one gets if they look at National tracking polls like Rasmussen's. If you look closely at those state polling results and the number of EC votes attached, it looks to be tilted in Obama's favour still. If you take their average of polls, and change the map to no toss-up states it comes up with an EC vote total of 290 for Obama to 248 for Romney.
It's still a very close race though. Rasmussen released their registered voter numbers and those were favourable for Romney. But he's going to have to be more competitive in these swing states, some of which are leaning heavy to Obama.
