Venezuela? What’s up with that?

[Ron in Regina]

Is it this? Venezuela's wealth lies in its enormous petroleum and mineral deposits, most notably the world's largest proven oil reserves, a significant portion of which is the heavy crude oil found in the Orinoco Belt. The country also holds substantial natural gas reserves, the seventh-largest in the world, along with deposits of iron ore, bauxite, and coal that remain largely unexploited. While these resources have the potential for significant economic value, production has been severely impacted by mismanagement and other factors.

(China is the largest importer of Venezuelan oil, accounting for over 50% of exports, followed by the United States and India. Other importers include Spain, Cuba, Italy, Russia, Singapore, and Vietnam)

Or is it this? Venezuela has rare earth element (REE) deposits, with the Cerro Impacto depositone of the richest in the Guiana Shield region. There are also REE signatures within the Navay phosphate deposit, and the mineral coltan (a source of niobium and tantalum) is present and smuggled via borders with countries like Colombia and Brazil. While potential reserves exist, current commercial extraction is negligible and limited to initial exploration.

Or is it this? Venezuela has long served as a hub for illicit activity in Latin America. It sits between major cocaine production zones in Colombia and consumer markets in Europe and North America, making it a valuable transit point for drug trafficking operations.

Or is Venezuela going to be America’s Taiwan or Ukraine, etc…?

Or is it this guy?

Technical Difficulties

United States–Venezuela relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Did Trump get food poisoning in a Venezuelan restaurant? Get into an argument with a Venezuelan gardener? Get slighted by a Venezuelan prostitute? Some combination of some or all of the above factors…& others that need to be considered?
As an aside, it’s a country with low numbers of both Muslims and Jews, so this has been a back burner story it seems. The Muslim community in Venezuela is estimated to be between 100,000 and 150,000 people, which represents between 0.3% and 0.5% of the total population. Jews are even fewer on the ground with an estimated population of maybe 6000 individuals, where as back in the 1990’s it was about 25,000 people. This probably has no bearing on anything, but I figured I’d just get this out of the way now.

With that in mind, is Venezuela just a safe target for Trump to flex upon without pissing off too many other nations that consider America their ally even with Trump currently leading it?

Proposed United States invasion of Venezuela - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

(YouTube & US warship near Venezuela fuels speculation of Trump's intentions towards Maduro | DW News)

Carrier Strike Group 12 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Ron in Regina]

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine returned to the White House on Friday for a second consecutive day of deliberations centered on “potential” (?) military action in Venezuela, as U.S. forces in the region prepared for possible attack orders, according to people familiar with the matter.

It remains unclear if President Donald Trump has decided to pursue such an escalation, though high-level discussions over whether to strike Venezuela — and how — (& even really why?) have been underway for days, these people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the matter is highly sensitive. Also joining the White House meeting were Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, these people said.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment. The Pentagon press office did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump weighs Venezuela strikes as U.S. forces prepare for attack order — The Washington Post

High-level discussions, underway for days, have explored a variety of potential military options, people familiar with the matter said.

apple.news

Any strike on Venezuelan territory would upend the president’s frequent promises of avoiding new conflicts and betray promises made to Congress in recent weeks that no active preparations were underway for such an attack. It also would further complicate U.S. cooperation with other Latin American countries, and deepen suspicions — there and in Washington — over whether Trump’s endgame is the forced removal of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, whom Trump has accused of sending drugs and violent criminals to the United States, etc…

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

He's bluffing. It's what he does.

 

[Ron in Regina]

He's bluffing. It's what he does.

Why though? For what motivation?

The United States maintains a massive military advantage over Venezuela, but a significant expansion of its activities also risks exposing American troops to grave danger. Fighter pilots aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford, an aircraft carrier that’s been dispatched to the region, have been studying Venezuelan air defenses, though they did not yet know whether they’ll be ordered to attack, a person familiar with the matter. The Venezuelan Defense Ministry has announced a massive mobilization of nearly 200,000 air, ground and navy personnel to prepare to defend the (their?) country.

 

[Ron in Regina]

(YouTube & Why the US Created the Crisis in Venezuela)

??????

 

[petros]

(YouTube & Why the US Created the Crisis in Venezuela)

??????

Still baffled? BRICS.

### Venezuela, BRICS, and Oil: Key Developments as of November 2025

Venezuela, holder of the world's largest proven oil reserves (estimated at over 300 billion barrels), has been deepening ties with the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and expanded members like Iran, Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, and Indonesia) as a strategy to bypass U.S. sanctions and diversify its energy partnerships. While Venezuela is not yet a full BRICS member or official "partner country" (a status granted to nations like Bolivia, Cuba, and Nigeria in early 2025), President Nicolás Maduro has repeatedly expressed intent to join, framing it as a path to economic sovereignty. This push is heavily centered on oil, given Venezuela's economy relies on petroleum for ~95% of export revenues.

#### Recent Moves on BRICS-Oil Cooperation
- **Priority Access Offers**: In May 2025, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil Pinto announced that BRICS nations would receive "priority access" to the country's oil and gas exploration and development projects. This includes potential transfers of rights to develop deposits, aimed at attracting investment from Russia, China, and India—key BRICS players already active in Venezuela's energy sector. Earlier, in August 2024, Maduro signaled willingness to hand over deposit rights to BRICS for joint ventures.

- **De-Dollarization in Oil Trade**: Venezuela has ramped up oil sales in non-USD currencies like yuan, rupees, and gold to BRICS-aligned buyers, accelerating global de-dollarization efforts. This aligns with BRICS' broader push for alternative payment systems, reducing reliance on the petrodollar. For instance, discounted crude shipments to Russia and China have helped Venezuela circumvent U.S. sanctions imposed since 2017.

- **Membership Aspirations**: Despite applications dating back to 2024, Venezuela's full entry remains stalled, partly due to internal BRICS divisions (e.g., Brazil's hesitance amid U.S. pressure). As of June 2025, it's listed among aspirants rather than partners. Maduro claimed in January 2025 that membership "is a reality" and the path is clearing, but no official confirmation has materialized. Analysts note BRICS expansion now covers ~50% of global population and GDP, making Venezuela's oil a strategic lure.

#### Geopolitical Tensions and U.S. Response
The BRICS-oil nexus has fueled U.S.-Venezuela friction, especially under the incoming Trump administration. Recent escalations (as of mid-November 2025) include:
- U.S. mobilization of ~15,000 troops, seven warships in the Caribbean, and Delta Force preparations for potential strikes on Maduro's regime, cited officially as countering "narco-terrorists."<grok:render card_id="e91a71" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">32</argument>
</grok:render> Critics, including Venezuelan officials, argue it's a bid to seize oil assets and block BRICS integration.<grok:render card_id="96da9c" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">9</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="2eec5e" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">2</argument>
</grok:render>
- Vice President Delcy Rodríguez accused the U.S. of seeking "global oil dominance" to undermine emerging powers like BRICS.<grok:render card_id="aea433" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">2</argument>
</grok:render> Maduro echoed this on November 2, warning of an invasion to "loot" Venezuela's oil, gas, gold, and land.<grok:render card_id="11340d" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">9</argument>
</grok:render>
- Opposition figure María Corina Machado (U.S.-backed) vowed in October 2025 to privatize PDVSA (Venezuela's state oil firm) for foreign (likely U.S.) corporations if elected, contrasting Maduro's BRICS pivot.<grok:render card_id="28874b" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">3</argument>
</grok:render>

Public discourse on X highlights fears of U.S. intervention as a "checkmate" against BRICS' oil ambitions, with users noting Venezuela's raw resource exports (e.g., rare earth elements to China) and cheap oil to Russia as flashpoints.<grok:render card_id="a47074" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">30</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="4c13fa" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">38</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="6badb9" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">35</argument>
</grok:render> Some speculate BRICS could retaliate economically (e.g., via "Operation Sandman" to crash the dollar).

#### Implications for Global Oil Markets
- **For Venezuela**: BRICS ties could revive production (down to ~700,000 bpd from 3 million pre-sanctions) through tech and financing from China/Russia, per Carnegie analyses.<grok:render card_id="efa85d" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">7</argument>
</grok:render> However, U.S. aggression risks disrupting exports.
- **For BRICS**: Secures cheap, sanction-proof oil supplies, bolstering energy security amid OPEC+ dynamics.
- **Broader Shift**: Accelerates multipolar energy trade, challenging U.S. hegemony. As one X thread notes, "This isn’t just U.S. vs. Venezuela—it's about who controls energy and global money."<grok:render card_id="c3f20b" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">42</argument>
</grok:render>

In summary, Venezuela's BRICS outreach is a lifeline for its oil sector amid isolation, but it's igniting a high-stakes proxy battle. Watch for the 2025 BRICS Summit outcomes or U.S. policy announcements for next moves.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Why though? For what motivation?

The United States maintains a massive military advantage over Venezuela, but a significant expansion of its activities also risks exposing American troops to grave danger. Fighter pilots aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford, an aircraft carrier that’s been dispatched to the region, have been studying Venezuelan air defenses, though they did not yet know whether they’ll be ordered to attack, a person familiar with the matter. The Venezuelan Defense Ministry has announced a massive mobilization of nearly 200,000 air, ground and navy personnel to prepare to defend the (their?) country.

It caught his attention. Why does a baby focus on this or that toy?

 

[Ron in Regina]

It caught his attention. Why does a baby focus on this or that toy?

It’s been catching his attention (off & on) since 2017 or so since Chavez swung toward socialism & Trump comes across as easily distracted. Why does Trump keep returning to it?

I’m sure it can be argued that other administrations had issues with Venezuela, but other administrations aren’t flexing towards Venezuelan currently.

<grok:render card_id="e91a71" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">32</argument>
</grok:render> Critics, including Venezuelan officials, argue it's a bid to seize oil assets and block BRICS integration.<grok:render card_id="96da9c" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">9</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="2eec5e" card_type="citation_card"

That’s an interesting point in that though Venezuela is not a BRICS member, it recently has expressed an interest in joining.

<argument name="citation_id">7</argument>
</grok:render> However, U.S. aggression risks disrupting exports.
- **For BRICS**: Secures cheap, sanction-proof oil supplies, bolstering energy security amid OPEC+ dynamics.
- **Broader Shift**: Accelerates multipolar energy trade, challenging U.S. hegemony. As one X thread notes, "This isn’t just U.S. vs. Venezuela—it's about who controls energy and global money."<grok:render card_id="c3f20b" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">42</argument>
</grok:render>

Brazil, as the B in BRICS, has been a hold up and hold out towards Venezuela membership. Is this another instance where Trumps behaviour using American might is going to push a nation into the BRICS arms?

Venezuela furious at Brazil's Brics snub

Venezuela criticises Brazil's decision to veto its admission to the Brics group of emerging economies.

www.bbc.com

Brazil–Venezuela relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

It’s been catching his attention (off & on) since 2017 or so since Chavez swung toward socialism & Trump comes across as easily distracted. Why does Trump keep returning to it?

I’m sure it can be argued that other administrations had issues with Venezuela, but other administrations aren’t flexing towards Venezuelan currently.

Precisely. Dozy Don woke from his nap one day, and his eye happened to catch Venezuela. The rest is history-in-the-making.

 

[petros]

It’s been catching his attention (off & on) since 2017 or so since Chavez swung toward socialism & Trump comes across as easily distracted. Why does Trump keep returning to it?

I’m sure it can be argued that other administrations had issues with Venezuela, but other administrations aren’t flexing towards Venezuelan currently.

That’s an interesting point in that though Venezuela is not a BRICS member, it recently has expressed an interest in joining.

Brazil, as the B in BRICS, has been a hold up and hold out towards Venezuela membership. Is this another instance where Trumps behaviour using American might is going to push a nation into the BRICS arms?

Venezuela furious at Brazil's Brics snub

Venezuela criticises Brazil's decision to veto its admission to the Brics group of emerging economies.

www.bbc.com

Brazil–Venezuela relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Does it have to be a full member to be in the shade of the BRICS umbrella? Saudis aren't BRICS but they sure do work with them don't they?

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Does it have to be a full member to be in the shade of the BRICS umbrella? Saudis aren't BRICS but they sure do work with them don't they?

So. . . which supercarrier will we threaten the Saudis with?

 

[petros]

So. . . which supercarrier will we threaten the Saudis with?

Your mom.

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Your mom.

Ah, the Canadian "humour." Well done!

For you.

 

[petros]

Ah, the Canadian "humour." Well done!

For you.

You said "supercarrier" and left the question "wide open".

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

You said "supercarrier" and left the question "wide open".

Ah, I see. You didn't know the term and were unable to puzzle it out, so you went with seven-year-old "humour."

Carry on.

 

[petros]

Ah, I see. You didn't know the term and were unable to puzzle it out, so you went with seven-year-old "humour."

Carry on.

You prefer "superspreader"?

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

You prefer "superspreader"?

Yes, dear. Go outside and play.

 

[Ron in Regina]

YouTube & The U.S. and China Are Fighting Over Venezuela?…BUT…But this isn’t new.

The "all-weather strategic partnership" between Venezuela and China was officially established on
September 13, 2023 and predates…well, you know. It’s more than two years old now.

<grok:render card_id="efa85d" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">7</argument>
</grok:render> However, U.S. aggression risks disrupting exports.
- **For BRICS**: Secures cheap, sanction-proof oil supplies, bolstering energy security amid OPEC+ dynamics.
- **Broader Shift**: Accelerates multipolar energy trade, challenging U.S. hegemony.

So you’re saying for many countries, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” then? Is that what we’re seeing in Venezuela? United States' policies, particularly its longstanding sanctions and push for regime change, are strongly incentivized Venezuela to seek alignment with BRICS as a counterbalance to Western influence? You make an interesting point.

Currently, Russia is focusing on Ukraine, and China upon Taiwan, and Iran…is Iran. Maybe that’s why Trump is focused upon Venezuela currently?
"We may be having some discussions with Maduro, and we'll see how that turns out," Trump told reporters on Sunday in West Palm Beach, Florida, before getting on a flight back to Washington. "They would like to talk."

Trump offered no further details about the possibility of talks with Maduro, whom the U.S. has accused of ties to the illegal drug trade, which Maduro denies.

Senior Trump administration officials held three meetings at the White House last week to discuss options for possible military operations against Venezuela, including land strikes inside the country, officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Trump says US may open talks with Venezuela's Maduro — Reuters

President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States may open talks with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who faces escalating pressure from Washington amid a massive U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean.

apple.news

Trump said on Friday that he "sort of made up my mind" (?) on Venezuela, suggesting that a decision could come soon. The Venezuelan communications ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump's latest remarks.

 

[Ron in Regina]

The US has said it will designate a putative Venezuelan drug cartel allegedly led by Nicolás Maduro as a foreign terrorist organization, as the Trump administration sent more mixed messages over its crusade against Venezuela’s authoritarian leader.

US will label supposed Venezuelan drug cartel ‘headed by Maduro’ as terrorist organization — Guardian US

Experts believe decision is designed to pressure Venezuela’s leader into stepping down with threat of military force

apple.news

The move to target the already proscribed group, the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns), was announced by Marco Rubio on Sunday. “Headed by the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro, the group has corrupted the institutions of government in Venezuela and is responsible for terrorist violence conducted by and with other designated FTOs as well as for trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe,” the US secretary of state tweeted, generating excitement among hardline adversaries of Maduro who interpreted the announcement as proof Washington was preparing to intensify its push to force the South American dictator from power.

But…but shortly after Rubio’s pronouncement, those hopes were undermined when Trump hinted he might be prepared to negotiate with Maduro representatives. “We may be having some conversations with Maduro, and we’ll see how that turns out. They would like to talk,” Trump told reporters

After returning to the White House in January, Trump – who tried, but failed to overthrow Maduro during his first term – took a different approach to relations with Caracas. The US president ordered his special envoy, Ric Grenell, to visit Maduro and some of his top officials as part of negotiations involving deportation flights, US prisoners in Venezuela and natural resources. (?)

A $50m reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest was announced by the state department – twice the value once offered for the capture of the al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. On Sunday, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, arrived in the Caribbean bringing the total number of US service people in the region to about 15,000.

“Neither Maduro nor his cronies represent Venezuela’s legitimate government,” Rubio said as he announced the cartel would be designated a foreign terrorist organization as of 24 November…so a week from now?

Experts believe the campaign – while “officially” about halting drug trafficking and attacking groups such as the Cartel of the Suns – is fundamentally designed to pressure Maduro into stepping down with the threat of military force.

Many Venezuela specialists are skeptical that the Cartel of the Suns even exists (?) in the same way that Mexican cartels such as Sinaloa or Jalisco New Generation do. Rather, the name is seen as a dramatized description of the way in which Maduro has allowed criminal groups, including senior military figures, to exploit illegal industries including cocaine smuggling.

“They know it doesn’t exist,” said Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based analyst for Crisis Group, who called the “fictitious” cartel “convenient shorthand” for Maduro’s power over the world of crime.

“Of course there are people in the military doing drug trafficking. Of course the government allows them to do it and grants them impunity in order to keep them onside. But there isn’t a cartel as such. There’s no organization. It’s not like Maduro is sitting at the top of this organizational pyramid directing the traffic and saying: ‘Send five tonnes of cocaine to US this month, that’ll help bring down the Trump government.’”

Gunson saw threatening to designate such a fantasy group within the week as the latest incremental step in pressuring Maduro to resign, or the military to topple him, or face possible airstrikes, or…or something else?

 

[Tecumsehsbones]

Vietnezuela. Sounds like fun.