Venezuela? What’s up with that?

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
30,444
11,204
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
Is it this? Venezuela's wealth lies in its enormous petroleum and mineral deposits, most notably the world's largest proven oil reserves, a significant portion of which is the heavy crude oil found in the Orinoco Belt. The country also holds substantial natural gas reserves, the seventh-largest in the world, along with deposits of iron ore, bauxite, and coal that remain largely unexploited. While these resources have the potential for significant economic value, production has been severely impacted by mismanagement and other factors.
1763084531737.jpeg
(China is the largest importer of Venezuelan oil, accounting for over 50% of exports, followed by the United States and India. Other importers include Spain, Cuba, Italy, Russia, Singapore, and Vietnam)
1763086087541.jpeg
Or is it this? Venezuela has rare earth element (REE) deposits, with the Cerro Impacto depositone of the richest in the Guiana Shield region. There are also REE signatures within the Navay phosphate deposit, and the mineral coltan (a source of niobium and tantalum) is present and smuggled via borders with countries like Colombia and Brazil. While potential reserves exist, current commercial extraction is negligible and limited to initial exploration.

Or is it this? Venezuela has long served as a hub for illicit activity in Latin America. It sits between major cocaine production zones in Colombia and consumer markets in Europe and North America, making it a valuable transit point for drug trafficking operations.

Or is Venezuela going to be America’s Taiwan or Ukraine, etc…?

Or is it this guy?
1763084772821.jpeg
Did Trump get food poisoning in a Venezuelan restaurant? Get into an argument with a Venezuelan gardener? Get slighted by a Venezuelan prostitute? Some combination of some or all of the above factors…& others that need to be considered?
1763088405359.jpegAs an aside, it’s a country with low numbers of both Muslims and Jews, so this has been a back burner story it seems. The Muslim community in Venezuela is estimated to be between 100,000 and 150,000 people, which represents between 0.3% and 0.5% of the total population. Jews are even fewer on the ground with an estimated population of maybe 6000 individuals, where as back in the 1990’s it was about 25,000 people. This probably has no bearing on anything, but I figured I’d just get this out of the way now.

With that in mind, is Venezuela just a safe target for Trump to flex upon without pissing off too many other nations that consider America their ally even with Trump currently leading it?
(YouTube & US warship near Venezuela fuels speculation of Trump's intentions towards Maduro | DW News)
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
30,444
11,204
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine returned to the White House on Friday for a second consecutive day of deliberations centered on “potential” (?) military action in Venezuela, as U.S. forces in the region prepared for possible attack orders, according to people familiar with the matter.

It remains unclear if President Donald Trump has decided to pursue such an escalation, though high-level discussions over whether to strike Venezuela — and how — (& even really why?) have been underway for days, these people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the matter is highly sensitive. Also joining the White House meeting were Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, these people said.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment. The Pentagon press office did not respond to a request for comment.
Any strike on Venezuelan territory would upend the president’s frequent promises of avoiding new conflicts and betray promises made to Congress in recent weeks that no active preparations were underway for such an attack. It also would further complicate U.S. cooperation with other Latin American countries, and deepen suspicions — there and in Washington — over whether Trump’s endgame is the forced removal of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, whom Trump has accused of sending drugs and violent criminals to the United States, etc…
 

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
30,444
11,204
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
He's bluffing. It's what he does.
Why though? For what motivation?

The United States maintains a massive military advantage over Venezuela, but a significant expansion of its activities also risks exposing American troops to grave danger. Fighter pilots aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford, an aircraft carrier that’s been dispatched to the region, have been studying Venezuelan air defenses, though they did not yet know whether they’ll be ordered to attack, a person familiar with the matter. The Venezuelan Defense Ministry has announced a massive mobilization of nearly 200,000 air, ground and navy personnel to prepare to defend the (their?) country.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
119,117
14,637
113
Low Earth Orbit
(YouTube & Why the US Created the Crisis in Venezuela)

??????
Still baffled? BRICS.

### Venezuela, BRICS, and Oil: Key Developments as of November 2025

Venezuela, holder of the world's largest proven oil reserves (estimated at over 300 billion barrels), has been deepening ties with the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and expanded members like Iran, Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia, and Indonesia) as a strategy to bypass U.S. sanctions and diversify its energy partnerships. While Venezuela is not yet a full BRICS member or official "partner country" (a status granted to nations like Bolivia, Cuba, and Nigeria in early 2025), President Nicolás Maduro has repeatedly expressed intent to join, framing it as a path to economic sovereignty. This push is heavily centered on oil, given Venezuela's economy relies on petroleum for ~95% of export revenues.

#### Recent Moves on BRICS-Oil Cooperation
- **Priority Access Offers**: In May 2025, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil Pinto announced that BRICS nations would receive "priority access" to the country's oil and gas exploration and development projects. This includes potential transfers of rights to develop deposits, aimed at attracting investment from Russia, China, and India—key BRICS players already active in Venezuela's energy sector. Earlier, in August 2024, Maduro signaled willingness to hand over deposit rights to BRICS for joint ventures.

- **De-Dollarization in Oil Trade**: Venezuela has ramped up oil sales in non-USD currencies like yuan, rupees, and gold to BRICS-aligned buyers, accelerating global de-dollarization efforts. This aligns with BRICS' broader push for alternative payment systems, reducing reliance on the petrodollar. For instance, discounted crude shipments to Russia and China have helped Venezuela circumvent U.S. sanctions imposed since 2017.

- **Membership Aspirations**: Despite applications dating back to 2024, Venezuela's full entry remains stalled, partly due to internal BRICS divisions (e.g., Brazil's hesitance amid U.S. pressure). As of June 2025, it's listed among aspirants rather than partners. Maduro claimed in January 2025 that membership "is a reality" and the path is clearing, but no official confirmation has materialized. Analysts note BRICS expansion now covers ~50% of global population and GDP, making Venezuela's oil a strategic lure.

#### Geopolitical Tensions and U.S. Response
The BRICS-oil nexus has fueled U.S.-Venezuela friction, especially under the incoming Trump administration. Recent escalations (as of mid-November 2025) include:
- U.S. mobilization of ~15,000 troops, seven warships in the Caribbean, and Delta Force preparations for potential strikes on Maduro's regime, cited officially as countering "narco-terrorists."<grok:render card_id="e91a71" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">32</argument>
</grok:render> Critics, including Venezuelan officials, argue it's a bid to seize oil assets and block BRICS integration.<grok:render card_id="96da9c" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">9</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="2eec5e" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">2</argument>
</grok:render>
- Vice President Delcy Rodríguez accused the U.S. of seeking "global oil dominance" to undermine emerging powers like BRICS.<grok:render card_id="aea433" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">2</argument>
</grok:render> Maduro echoed this on November 2, warning of an invasion to "loot" Venezuela's oil, gas, gold, and land.<grok:render card_id="11340d" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">9</argument>
</grok:render>
- Opposition figure María Corina Machado (U.S.-backed) vowed in October 2025 to privatize PDVSA (Venezuela's state oil firm) for foreign (likely U.S.) corporations if elected, contrasting Maduro's BRICS pivot.<grok:render card_id="28874b" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">3</argument>
</grok:render>

Public discourse on X highlights fears of U.S. intervention as a "checkmate" against BRICS' oil ambitions, with users noting Venezuela's raw resource exports (e.g., rare earth elements to China) and cheap oil to Russia as flashpoints.<grok:render card_id="a47074" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">30</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="4c13fa" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">38</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="6badb9" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">35</argument>
</grok:render> Some speculate BRICS could retaliate economically (e.g., via "Operation Sandman" to crash the dollar).

#### Implications for Global Oil Markets
- **For Venezuela**: BRICS ties could revive production (down to ~700,000 bpd from 3 million pre-sanctions) through tech and financing from China/Russia, per Carnegie analyses.<grok:render card_id="efa85d" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">7</argument>
</grok:render> However, U.S. aggression risks disrupting exports.
- **For BRICS**: Secures cheap, sanction-proof oil supplies, bolstering energy security amid OPEC+ dynamics.
- **Broader Shift**: Accelerates multipolar energy trade, challenging U.S. hegemony. As one X thread notes, "This isn’t just U.S. vs. Venezuela—it's about who controls energy and global money."<grok:render card_id="c3f20b" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">42</argument>
</grok:render>

In summary, Venezuela's BRICS outreach is a lifeline for its oil sector amid isolation, but it's igniting a high-stakes proxy battle. Watch for the 2025 BRICS Summit outcomes or U.S. policy announcements for next moves.
 

Tecumsehsbones

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 18, 2013
60,963
9,820
113
Washington DC
Why though? For what motivation?

The United States maintains a massive military advantage over Venezuela, but a significant expansion of its activities also risks exposing American troops to grave danger. Fighter pilots aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford, an aircraft carrier that’s been dispatched to the region, have been studying Venezuelan air defenses, though they did not yet know whether they’ll be ordered to attack, a person familiar with the matter. The Venezuelan Defense Ministry has announced a massive mobilization of nearly 200,000 air, ground and navy personnel to prepare to defend the (their?) country.
It caught his attention. Why does a baby focus on this or that toy?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ron in Regina

Ron in Regina

"Voice of the West" Party
Apr 9, 2008
30,444
11,204
113
Regina, Saskatchewan
It caught his attention. Why does a baby focus on this or that toy?
It’s been catching his attention (off & on) since 2017 or so since Chavez swung toward socialism & Trump comes across as easily distracted. Why does Trump keep returning to it?

I’m sure it can be argued that other administrations had issues with Venezuela, but other administrations aren’t flexing towards Venezuelan currently.
<grok:render card_id="e91a71" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">32</argument>
</grok:render> Critics, including Venezuelan officials, argue it's a bid to seize oil assets and block BRICS integration.<grok:render card_id="96da9c" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">9</argument>
</grok:render><grok:render card_id="2eec5e" card_type="citation_card"
That’s an interesting point in that though Venezuela is not a BRICS member, it recently has expressed an interest in joining.
<argument name="citation_id">7</argument>
</grok:render> However, U.S. aggression risks disrupting exports.
- **For BRICS**: Secures cheap, sanction-proof oil supplies, bolstering energy security amid OPEC+ dynamics.
- **Broader Shift**: Accelerates multipolar energy trade, challenging U.S. hegemony. As one X thread notes, "This isn’t just U.S. vs. Venezuela—it's about who controls energy and global money."<grok:render card_id="c3f20b" card_type="citation_card" type="render_inline_citation">
<argument name="citation_id">42</argument>
</grok:render>
Brazil, as the B in BRICS, has been a hold up and hold out towards Venezuela membership. Is this another instance where Trumps behaviour using American might is going to push a nation into the BRICS arms?
 

Tecumsehsbones

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 18, 2013
60,963
9,820
113
Washington DC
It’s been catching his attention (off & on) since 2017 or so since Chavez swung toward socialism & Trump comes across as easily distracted. Why does Trump keep returning to it?

I’m sure it can be argued that other administrations had issues with Venezuela, but other administrations aren’t flexing towards Venezuelan currently.
Precisely. Dozy Don woke from his nap one day, and his eye happened to catch Venezuela. The rest is history-in-the-making.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
119,117
14,637
113
Low Earth Orbit
It’s been catching his attention (off & on) since 2017 or so since Chavez swung toward socialism & Trump comes across as easily distracted. Why does Trump keep returning to it?

I’m sure it can be argued that other administrations had issues with Venezuela, but other administrations aren’t flexing towards Venezuelan currently.

That’s an interesting point in that though Venezuela is not a BRICS member, it recently has expressed an interest in joining.

Brazil, as the B in BRICS, has been a hold up and hold out towards Venezuela membership. Is this another instance where Trumps behaviour using American might is going to push a nation into the BRICS arms?
Does it have to be a full member to be in the shade of the BRICS umbrella? Saudis aren't BRICS but they sure do work with them don't they?