Scientists link harsh winter to dramatic decline in Arctic Sea Ice

coldstream

on dbl secret probation
Oct 19, 2005
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https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/03/25-7



Climate change can and does occur chaotically as we can see from this.

More convoluted nonsense. As the models and predictions of AGW fall apart, in the face of the coldest summer and winter in the Northern hemisphere in decades.. the desparate attempts of the AGW industry to redefine the debate..as 'climate change' rather than 'global warming' is reaching a hysterical pitch.

Virtually anything is used now to prove their case... hot weather, cold weather, storms, droughts, floods and everything in between. You have to be a complete idiot to accept a hypothesis that can be proven by all possible premises. The whole statement is either so trivial as to be not worth considering or you can assume you are being bamboozled and scammed.

AGW is a fraud.. that's the only proven thesis.. let's move on to the real world.. and leave the Climate Cult to its own pagan rituals and tree hugging.
 
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Cobalt_Kid

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Feb 3, 2007
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More convoluted nonsense. As the models and predictions of AGW fall apart, in the face of the coldest summer and winter in the Northern hemisphere in decades.. the desparate attempts of the AGW industry to redefine the debate..as 'climate change' rather than 'global warming' is reaching a hysterical pitch.

Virtually anything is used now to prove their case... hot weather, cold weather, storms, droughts, floods and everything in between. You have to be a complete idiot to accept a hypothesis that can be proven by all possible postulates. The whole statement is either so trivial as to not worth considering. or you can assume you are being bamboozled and scammed.

AGW is a fraud.. that's the only proven thesis.. let's move on to the real world.. and leave the Climate Cult to its own pagan rituals and tree hugging.

I'm not debating climate change anymore, it's pointless. People can accept the most likely scientific model built up over decades and centuries of research...

Or buy into the industry created fiction that there is no climate change and or we aren't responsible.

When you consider that the fossil fuel sector took basically the same denial machine used by the tobacco industry often with some of the same people in charge like Fred Seitz and Fred Singer then it's hardly credible.

There's no way around the fact that carbon dioxide absorbs EM radiation in the wavelengths emitted by the Earth's surface and slows it's transmission into space. This requires a temperature increase of the overall global average to return to a thermal equilibrium, the thermodynamics demands it.

So post away, but what you're posting isn't science, it's spin.
 

coldstream

on dbl secret probation
Oct 19, 2005
5,160
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by Cobalt Kid - So post away, but what you're posting isn't science, it's spin.


This winter was warmer than last two...coldstream, why do you post such obvious nonsense? Do you really not know better?


Nothing the AGW lobby puts out can be trusted.. it is all selectively sorted or excluded to prove its case. It has absolutely no interest in the truth. It is NOT a scientific case.. it is a POLITICAL agenda.. radicalized now and impervious to natural evidence. It is useless trying to debate with the climate fanatics.. a mentality driven by fear mongering, half truths and obfuscated sophistry.. a closed logic with its own purpose built language and cues.. has take over. It's like trying to reason with a mob.
 
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Tonington

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Oct 27, 2006
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Nothing the AGW puts out can be trusted.. it is all selectively sorted or excluded to prove its case.

As opposed to claims like yours which can be shown to be false? Then knock yourself and check out the satellite datasets run by skeptical scientists like Dr. Roy Spencer. The conclusion is the same, your assertion of the 2012-13 winter and 2013 spring temperatures being the coldest in decades is false:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

It shows the same thing as the "AGW" NASA dataset. The two preceding winters and springs were colder in the Northern Hemisphere. Try digging into the data for yourself. Show yourself to be a reasonable person...
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Not all aerosols persist for three years or more. Suffice it to say, acid does not qualify as nothing when it comes to points such as geoengineering like Mowich mentioned. Whether the aerosols come from man or a geologic process, the effect of like for like is the same.
Really?

On topic....what made all the other winters harsh?
 

Cobalt_Kid

Council Member
Feb 3, 2007
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Nothing the AGW puts out can be trusted.. it is all selectively sorted or excluded to prove its case. It has absolutely no interest in the truth. It is NOT a scientific case.. it is a POLITICAL agenda.. radicalized now and impervious to natural evidence. It is useless trying to debate with the climate fanatics.. a mentality driven by fear mongering, half truths and obfuscated sophistry.. a closed logic with its own purpose built language and cues.. has take over. It's like trying to reason with a mob.

Trying to bend physical laws to your preconceived opinions can be frustrating.

The science is sound and goes back over two centuries, it's going to be a really unpleasant experience for anyone who tries and maintains climate change denial in the coming years, the real world evidence is just too compelling.

If you really are interested in learning the science behind climate change and the greenhouse effect then you could try some of these sites.

Climate change: A guide for the perplexed - environment - 16 May 2007 - New Scientist

RealClimate: Start here

There's more than enough there to get started and there's people here who can answer some questions. It's a complex issue and it can be frustrating trying to understand the many aspects.
 

Jonny_C

Electoral Member
Apr 25, 2013
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A few observations, in no particular order:

  • Global Warming and Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) are two entirely different things.
  • The waters have been so muddied by both sides that it's very difficult to believe either one.
  • Debate on boards such as this follows a highly predictable pattern and it's basically useless to join in.
  • Whether thorium reactors will work is still highly questionable.
  • There's no current end in sight to the massive consumption of fossil fuels.
  • Technological research will eventually lead to a significant breakthrough (or more than one) in the production of energy, but it hasn't happened yet, and a timeline is impossible to guess.
 

taxslave

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Nov 25, 2008
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I'm not debating climate change anymore, it's pointless. People can accept the most likely scientific model built up over decades and centuries of research...


So post away, but what you're posting isn't science, it's spin.

Good. Admitting you have a problem is the first step to recovery.
Few people debate that climate is changing. It has since the dawn of time. What is open to debate is how much influence we have on it and how willing we are to destroy our economy in a poorly conceived attempt to change the outcome.
 

Cobalt_Kid

Council Member
Feb 3, 2007
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A few observations, in no particular order:

  • Global Warming and Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) are two entirely different things.
  • The waters have been so muddied by both sides that it's very difficult to believe either one.
  • Debate on boards such as this follows a highly predictable pattern and it's basically useless to join in.
  • Whether thorium reactors will work is still highly questionable.
  • There's no current end in sight to the massive consumption of fossil fuels.
  • Technological research will eventually lead to a significant breakthrough (or more than one) in the production of energy, but it hasn't happened yet, and a timeline is impossible to guess.

We know that carbon dioxide is the most important persistent greenhouse gas, we know that human activities emit billions of tons of it a year and that levels of atmospheric CO2 have gone from about 280ppm in pre-industrial times to close to 400ppm now.

We also have reams of evidence that are consistent with Anthropogenic global warming.

Oak Ridge Nuclear Laboratory had a working MSR in the 1960s that ran for a total of about 1.5 years operating time including using thorium transmuted into U-233 for close to half that. The man that was principally responsible for the design of that reactor, Alvin Weinberg, also held the patent for the pressurized water reactor and the MSR was intended as a safer, simpler much more efficient replacement for PWRs. If Nixon hadn't cut funding in the early 1970s in favor of the LMFBR then it's likely that R&D for a commercial Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor(LFTR) would have begun 40 years ago. The basic concept has already been proven, the program now needs to develop the heat transfer/power generation loop and instream fission products removal, it's a question of design, not of a technological breakthrough that will allow it to work.

It's not a complex process, you place thorium in solution in your molten salt made up of fluoride, beryllium and lithium in an outer shell around an inner core that uses a graphite moderator to slow neutrons to thermal spectrum and have fissile material in that vessel also in solution in the same kind of molten salt. The start-up fissile charge can be processed from spent nuclear fuel and will probably contain U-235, Pu-239 and other transuranic actinides. LFTRs will burn up nuclear waste. To start it up you turn on pumps that circulate the salt trough the reactor, fission takes place in the central region and as the reactor heats it drives material from the core making for passive control, you're not going to get a runaway reaction with a molten salt reactor, they also can't melt down like a conventional reactor as the fissile material is already in a molten state in the salt.

Neutrons being released from the fission in the core travel to the blanket loop where the thorium is where it is absorbed by thorium atoms changing them into Th-233, this quickly decays into Pa-233 and after 27 days decays into U-233 which is a better neutron emitter than U-235 making it a better fuel in the MSR. Essentially a thorium MSR is a big vat of molten salt holding fissile material that undergoes fission as it's pumped through a moderator, it's far simpler and safer than the PWRs we've been using for decades.

Like I said ORNL operated an MSR for several years between 1965 and 1969, they worked out many of the details needed to build a commercial reactor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-Salt_Reactor_Experiment

The MSRE operated for 5 years. The salt was loaded in 1964 and nuclear operation ended in December, 1969,[2][13] and all of the objectives of the experiment were achieved during this period.
Checkout and prenuclear tests included 1,000 hours of circulation of flush salt and fuel carrier salt. Nuclear testing of the MSRE began in June 1965, with the addition of enriched 235U as UF4-LiF eutectic to the carrier salt to make the reactor critical. After zero-power experiments to measure rod worth and reactivity coefficients,[14] the reactor was shut down and final preparations made for power operation. Power ascension was delayed when vapors from oil that had leaked into the fuel pump were polymerized by the radioactive offgas and plugged gas filters and valves. Maximum power, which was limited to 7.4 MW(t) by the capability of the heat-rejection system, was reached in May 1966.

By this time, ample 233U had become available,[15] so the MSRE program was extended to include substitution of 233U for the uranium in the fuel salt, and operation to observe the new nuclear characteristics. Using the on-site processing equipment the flush salt and fuel salt were fluorinated to recover the uranium in them as UF6.[4] 233UF4-LiF eutectic was then added to the carrier salt, and in October 1968, the MSRE became the world's first reactor to operate on 233U.

Thorium is probably one of the most promising sources of energy and with adequate funding will probably be online by 2030. The Chinese are already working on theirs.

China enters race to develop nuclear energy from thorium | Duncan Clark | Environment | guardian.co.uk

There's a big difference between a demonstrably good idea and a multimillion-dollar research and development programme, however, so it's exciting to hear about a major new push to actually develop LFTR technology in China. Thorium-energy expert Kirk Sorensen recently blogged about the announcement of the new scheme at the Chinese National Academy of Sciences in late January. Technology journalist Andrew Orlowski followed up with a story claiming that a private company in China is aiming to build a prototype within five years that can produce electricity at for as little as 6.8p per kilowatt hour (much cheaper than the retail price of power in the UK today).

The Japanese have several programs.

Namibia has a program.

Groot Group and Partners to Launch Namibia Thorium Energy Research Institute to Power the Entire African Continent - PR.com

Windhoek, Namibia, March 21, 2013 --(PR.com)-- Groot Group with local and international partners comprises of educational institutions, quasi-governmental agencies, NGOs, researchers, scientists, and industry stakeholders are forming Namibia Institute for Thorium Energy (NITE), a nonprofit organization whose objectives are to research and design the plan for a Thorium Reactor as well as develop the Thorium and Thorium Chloride (ThCl4) Liquid for the supply to selected users.

India is working on thorium fueled reactors.

Canada has long experience with thorium, it can be breed into U-233 in a CANDU reactor. Canadian technicians have gone to China to help with the program there, but for an energy future we're digging a massive hole in northern Alberta and planning to build heavy crude pipelines all over the place. There's something wrong with this picture.

Good. Admitting you have a problem is the first step to recovery.
Few people debate that climate is changing. It has since the dawn of time. What is open to debate is how much influence we have on it and how willing we are to destroy our economy in a poorly conceived attempt to change the outcome.

You're somehow able to blank the fact that as a species we emit billions of tons of CO2 a year into the atmosphere and that it's a powerful greenhouse gas, what's the point in trying to discuss it with you?

If you're adverse to trusting science in general then it's not very likely you'll believe or take the time to understanding the complexities of climate change and our connection to it. You're also basing your "understanding" on ignorance, so you're hardly a credible source.
 
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taxslave

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Nov 25, 2008
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You're somehow able to blank the fact that as a species we emit billions of tons of CO2 a year into the atmosphere and that it's a powerful greenhouse gas, what's the point in trying to discuss it with you?

If you're adverse to trusting science in general then it's not very likely you'll believe or take the time to understanding the complexities of climate change and our connection to it. You're also basing your "understanding" on ignorance, so you're hardly a credible source.

Science I trust. It is people with an agenda I don't trust. The people you are putting so much faith in started with a conclusion that industry in first world countries is bad, then tried to manufacture some "facts", then came up with the theory that man is somehow totally responsible for a change in the weather and all economic activity inNorth America and western Europe must be stopped or bled to death.
Unfortunately there are enough gullible people like you around that the real issue is lost. That is simply that we must pick up our **** and recycle it.
 

Jonny_C

Electoral Member
Apr 25, 2013
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I'm not looking to debate. Virtually everything that's posted in a thread like this I have seen before, some things many many times.

If a thorium reactor relies upon such a simple process, which was understood in the 1960's, then thorium should already be a significant power source. It's not, and no matter what current research is active, it's still questionable. It's not a magic bullet, though I have often seen it referred to as such.
 

petros

The Central Scrutinizer
Nov 21, 2008
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Where does thorium come from? Great big open pit mines like the oil sands?

How will you get past the environauts?

Maybe nobody wants a thorium mine in their backyard polluting their food air, rivers, and streams. How do you plan on transporting the thorium?

Will the earth last another 15-20 years that it takes to design and build and clear a reactor even if the process were known?

Where will the reactor building materials come from stuff like all the minerals for the stainless steel needed to build reactors?

How much energy would it take to replace the entire pile of power plants worldwide and build shiny new thorium reactors?

GE and the green movement they created has yet to raise the money needed to shut down coal and go with NG turbines where the Hell will the money for thorium reactors come from?
 

Cobalt_Kid

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Feb 3, 2007
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I'm not looking to debate. Virtually everything that's posted in a thread like this I have seen before, some things many many times.

If a thorium reactor relies upon such a simple process, which was understood in the 1960's, then thorium should already be a significant power source. It's not, and no matter what current research is active, it's still questionable. It's not a magic bullet, though I have often seen it referred to as such.

If you're posting your comments here you're debating.

And as I explained the reason that thorium based MSRs weren't developed had nothing to do with their physical characteristics which are plainly superior to PWRs, LMFBRs and most other nuclear reactor types with the possible exception of the DMSR which is a slightly simpler but less efficient design.

The reason LFTRs weren't developed is due to the politics of the Cold War era they were first developed in. The thorium fuel cycle produces very little plutonium which is the main source of fissile material in nuclear weapons. One ton of thorium completely consumed in an MSR would only give you about 15 kgs of plutonium at the end of the cycle. The uranium fuel cycle in an PWR would give you close to 1/3 of a ton of Pu-239.

PWRs are highly inefficient, using up about 0.7% of available fuel before the fuel rods degrade and have to be replaced. A two fluid LFTR would consume almost 100% of the fuel load. With a uranium oxide fueled PWR you'd need to start with about 200 tons of unenriched uranium processed to about 35 tons of 20% U-235 enriched fuel to compare with the same energy produced by one ton of Th-232. At the end you have about 35 tons of spent nuclear fuel with the uranium powered PWR with large amounts of long lived waste, with the thorium MSR you end up with one ton of waste, most of it fissile products that are safe within ten years.

As I've said, MSRs because the fuel is already in a molten state can't melt down as with a PWR, there is no water to disassociate into free hydrogen to create an explosion risk, the MSR also isn't under high pressure as with a Pressurized Water Reactor, meaning there's no need for massive primary containment vessels. Reactor vessels for current PWR can weigh 600 tons or more and take up to half a year to manufacture, most countries don't even have the capability to do so any longer. This means you can build your reactor facilities much smaller and less expensively with a thorium based MSR.

Also with the higher temperatures of MSRs the thermal efficiency is much higher meaning you can turn more heat into electricity, it's about 38% for PWRs and close to 50% for MSRs.

To shut down an MSR you turn off the circulation pumps, there's no ackward control rods and the coolant is the molten salt itself so there can be no loss of coolant accidents. In the event of an emergency the core fluid is simply drained into sub-critical containment under the reactor, which is what the ORNL team did with their MSRE reactor for maintenance. It's a very simply and safe design. In comparison a PWR is like a bomb that needs to be enclosed in a massive concrete building to contain the pressure from a primary reactor vessel failure. If you punched a hole in an MSR it would drain your core molten salt/fuel mixture into the same sub-critical containment vessel, all the radioactive material safely contained in the salt and cooled by passive conduction in the drain tank.

It's a superior technology that didn't get utilized when it was originally developed because it didn't get the political backing it needed. People like Milton Shaw who came up through the Navy Reactor Department under Hyman Rickover weren't interested in safer, more efficient reactor designs when they has adequate PWRs that were suited for use in naval vessels and produced large amounts of Pu-239.

Milton Shaw: And the decline of the American Nuclear Establishment

During the interview Weinberg was asked to comment on Milton Shaw. Weinberg responded, “Milton Shaw had a singleness of purpose. In many ways I admired him, and in many ways he drove me nutty. He had a single-minded commitment to do what he was told to do, which was to get the Clinch River Breeder Reactor built. My views were different from his. I think the Commission decided that my views were out of touch with the way the nuclear industry was actually going.”

When Milton Shaw went to the AEC in 1964 he already had a well-formed set of beliefs, attitudes and professional skills. His entire working career had been spent with the Navy, first as a junior officer, and then as a young engineer who had pioneered the modern nuclear fleet under Rickover. Almost all of Shaw's reactor experience had been with naval ship propulsion. That was almost entirely with the light-water reactor. Rickover and Shaw had adapted Navy management systems to the running of shipboard reactors. Every system on the reactor was duplicated. If one system failed, another was ready to take its place. Duplicate systems meant that if a system needed to be shut down for maintenance another was available to take its place. Thus reactors could be run continuously. Crews were highly trained. Every operating procedure was elaborated in detail in technical manuals. Officers and men were expected to always follow manuals to the letter.

From Shaw’s viewpoint nuclear safety was a done deal, and further research on it was a waste of time. Shaw viewed light-water reactors as a mature technology. From his perspective, all that was required was to build in sufficient redundancy, write the technical manuals, and make sure that the workers were well-trained and that rules were followed.

Shaw believed that reactor safety was largely a matter of good engineering. Once the principles of proper reactor design were understood, good judgment and adherence to sound design principles would always assure that safety would be maintained. The belief of Weinberg and others that scientists like George Parker should continue to working on safety issues was discounted by Shaw who thought that further research was a waste of effort. Shaw believed that emergency cooling for reactors was a wasted effort, if the reactors were well-engineered to begin with. This belief was to cost the reactor industry billions of dollars and was to have serious consequences at Three Mile Island.

Scientists began to believe that Shaw was vindictive, and that he would punish people and institutions that failed to adhere to his dictates. As scientists (some late in their professional careers) began to be laid off from national labs, a belief set in that Shaw had instituted nothing short of a purge of AEC research programs. Morale plummeted at AEC facilities, and chaos reigned.

By 1970, concern about nuclear safety was spreading. The scientific community as a whole was aware of what was happening at places like ORNL, where the safety concerns of scientists like George Parker were being ignored. Weinberg went to bat for his scientist, and was told that he was out of touch, and that if he continued to speak out about safety, there was no place for him in the nuclear industry.

The scientists at ORNL who developed the thorium based MSR were interested in safety and efficiency that would have long term applications for civilian nuclear power production. People like Milton Shaw who was head of the AEC reactor design department at the time were interested in maintaining the status quo with uranium oxide fueled PWRs which they considered more than safe enough for civilian use. Then we had Three Mile Island and other incidents and reactor design and construction in the US mostly came to a halt due to lack of support. Nixon backed the development of the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor that also used the uranium fuel cycle and would produce even more Pu-239 as the thermal spectrum PWRs and eventually over $8 billion dollars was spent without producing a working design...and the thorium MSR was forgotten. Not because it wasn't superior for the task of producing safe and economical power for civilian use, but because most of the men backing it had been fired or transferred to other programs and because further development of civilian nuclear power technology stagnated.

One ton of thorium bred and burned in an LFTR can fuel a 1,000 MWe power plant for a year, safely and economically. There are currently 3,200 tons of thorium stockpiled in the US and one average rare earths mine can produce about 5,000 tons a year, enough to meet the energy demands of the entire planet. We're failing to not exploit this energy source not because it isn't preferable to what we have, but because most people are ignorant of it.

Where does thorium come from? Great big open pit mines like the oil sands?

How will you get past the environauts?

Maybe nobody wants a thorium mine in their backyard polluting their food air, rivers, and streams. How do you plan on transporting the thorium?

Will the earth last another 15-20 years that it takes to design and build and clear a reactor even if the process were known?

Where will the reactor building materials come from stuff like all the minerals for the stainless steel needed to build reactors?

How much energy would it take to replace the entire pile of power plants worldwide and build shiny new thorium reactors?

GE and the green movement they created has yet to raise the money needed to shut down coal and go with NG turbines where the Hell will the money for thorium reactors come from?

Thorium is almost always found with rare earths which are currently being mined for use in high tech applications.

Rare Earth Elements Explained

As we're already mining rare earths and thorium is being treated as radioactive waste, we should instead use it for power.

http://scitizen.com/future-energies/rare-earth-elements-and-thorium-power-_a-14-3643.html

Thorium is present in the ores of rare earth elements rendering the processing-waste radioactive. Rather than burying it underground in concrete thorium could be bred into a nuclear fuel and most simply used in a liquid fluoride reactor (LFR). The technology can also be used to destroy plutonium and other radionuclides and is less readily employed than uranium/plutonium in perpetrating acts of terrorism..

We're already investing massive amounts into building fossil fuel electrical generation, in the coming several decades it's planned to spend over $1 trillion dollars alone on building new coal fired power plants.

The mining of thorium has an order of magnitude(ten times) less impact than uranium mining which in turn has much less impact than coal and oil sands mining. It's one of the most efficient and responsible sources of energy on the planet.
 
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