But only until sometime in 2025 unless the NDP/Liberals are re-elected….then it’ll go on for another four more years…
Last week’s column considered the diverting possibility that the Liberals could “lose” the next election but remain in power. That is, they could finish with fewer seats than their Conservative rivals (like both of the last two Federal elections that are under question regarding Chinese Interference) and yet govern with the support of the NDP, as they do now.
In the nearly 20 years since Canada’s conservative movement was unified under its current banner, its support has remained strikingly constant, mired in the low 30s most of the time save for brief intervals around the 2006, 2008 and 2011 elections.
By contrast, Liberal and NDP support, particularly after 2011, has oscillated wildly, as left-of-centre voters hopped back and forth between them (and, latterly, the Greens). That split in the progressive vote offered the Conservatives the occasional opportunity to scrape into government, despite a deficit in the popular vote versus the combined progressive parties of 20 points, on average (15 if only the Liberals and NDP are counted).
(consistently similar to the above with minor changes)
That changed with the Liberal-NDP Non-Coalition Coalition that’s definitely not a Coalition…this time. It made explicit what was already implicit: that the progressive vote is no longer the property of the individual parties of which it is composed, but has become a single voting bloc the parties of the left hold in common. The progressive popular majority (since 2004 the Liberals and NDP have averaged a combined 50.4 per cent of the vote) has solidified into a governing majority.
…& it only took a Trucker Convoy to get them to come out’a the political closet.
