Polls

[Reverend Blair]

Environics, October 20

Liberals 38 (Up 1 from election)
Conservatives 27 (Down 3 from election)
NDP 20 (Up 4 from election)
BQ 10 (down 2 from election)
Other 4 (down 1 from election)

 

[no1important]

From Here

Ipsos-Reid 27/10/2005
Liberal 38%
CPC 26%
NDP 18%
Bloc 11%
Green 5%

If you are interested-

CBC television marks 10th Anniversary of the Quebec referendum

 

[no1important]

SES
27/10/2005

40% Liberal
28%- Cons
15% Ndp
12% Bloc
4% Green

From Here

 

[Reverend Blair]

Com
Ipsos-Reid
Date Lib CPC NDP Bloc Grn
02/11 31 30 19 13 5

AVERAGE OF LAST 5 POLLS
Liberal CPC NDP Bloc
36 29 17 12

 

[no1important]

Strategic
06/11/2005
Liberal 35
CPC 28
NDP 16
Bloc 13
Green 8

From here

Well the libs never stayed down long.

 

[no1important]

from here


Ontario
Libs 44
Cons 31

Quebec
Bloc 50
Libs 30

West
Libs 25
Cons 42
Ndp 20

 

[Reverend Blair]

Yup, Liberal minority again.

 

[no1important]

Just heard on Radio but no link yet the libs are at 34% and Cons 26%.

found link- link

MONTREAL (CP) - Prime Minister Paul Martin's Liberals appeared to bounce back from any immediate fallout from the release of the first Gomery sponsorship inquiry report, a new poll suggests.

The Leger Marketing survey indicated the Liberals had 34 per cent support, compared with 26 per cent for the Conservatives, 18 per cent for the New Democratic Party and 11 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois. The poll was conducted between Nov. 1 - the day Justice John Gomery released his initial sponsorship report - and this Tuesday.

Leger's poll had the Liberals at 40 per cent support in seat-rich Ontario, 12 points ahead of the Tories' 28 per cent and way ahead of the NDP's 19 per cent.

Out East, the Liberals' 43 per cent outstripped the Conservatives' 24 per cent and the NDP's 23 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois continued to dominate the political scene, with 48 per cent support, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals.

British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan loomed as dogfights, with the Liberals, the Tories and the NDP locked in a virtual tie in the three provinces.

Predictably, the Tories were way ahead in Alberta, with 60 per cent support

click above link for rest.

 

[yballa09]

Amazing how after a few days the poll can change a whopping 10% (between the libs and cons). Seems like there's a lot of unsurety out there.

 

[Colpy]

It is amazingly volitile out there right now. I wouldn't bet on ANYTHING, except that the Bloc won't be forming a gov't.

Don't drive yourselves nuts folks. There's only one accurate poll, and it is the only one that counts.

 

[Reverend Blair]

The polls are generally pretty close in determining who the winner will be and what the margin is, Colpy. While I trust no single poll, I do trust the long-term trends they show. Those trends have the Liberals winning another minority government. They also show that the Harperites are not trusted by most Canadians.

 

[no1important]

from
here

Ipsos-Reid
10/11/2005
Liberal 34
CPC 28
NDP 19
Bloc 14
Green 4

 

[manda]

I'd like to see more support for the Green Party and the NDP, the conservatives can stand to be knocked down a notch or 2

 

[no1important]

From here

Ipsos-Reid
15/11/2005
Liberal 36
CPC 27
NDP 16
Bloc 13
Green 6

It seems the Conservatives are stuck. If they had a real leader maybe they could of capitalized on Gomery.

 

[#juan]

Latest seat projection

Lib. 140

Cons. 78

Bloc. 59

NDP. 31

It kind of looks to me like the opposition, by pushing for an early election, would be shooting themselves in the foot. My point is, that another Liberal minority will last only a couple years unless the Liberals and the NDP can make some sort of semi-permanent coalition. I could live with that.

 

[Reverend Blair]

They might do something like that, Juan. I've heard a few people who are of the opinion that Martin will step down and the left side of the Liberal party are poised to step forward. That would certainly leave the door open for a more stable coalition.

If Martin stays though, we can expect him to keep making overtures to the Conservatives on budgets. That will make a solid coalition a lot dicier because it depends on the Conservatives.

 

[#juan]

The Liberals, if they thought about it

could bring in a fresh young face as their new leader. He would have to be squeaky clean and promise to clear out all corruption and cronyism. (what about young Trudeau) If they did it quickly, they could reduce the conservatives to third power status and have yet another majority. The conservatives could do the same thing and if they came up with a reasonable and transparent platform, they could probably get a majority.

 

[Reverend Blair]

The names being bandied about for Liberal leadership aren't fresh new faces though. Bob Rae's name keeps coming up too, which strikes me as bizarre, but there it is.

I think that the NDP should be courting Trudeau. From the speeches that he's given and the causes he's supported, it would be a good fit.

I don't think the Conservatives can come up with a platform that manages to be transparent and pleases Canadians until their base changes. That base dates back to the formation of the Reform Party though, and I doubt they'll do anything to risk losing it.

What I'd really like to see happen is for some form of proportional representation come in. That would guarantee a prmanent minority and, since it comes with set election dates, stabilise things.

I think that would allow a centre-right party like the Progressive Canadians to grow, move the Liberals to the left, and shrink the Conservatives back to rural Alberta. It would also allow other parties, like the Greens (centre-right) and the CAP (centre-left) to gain some seats.

 

[#juan]

If the Liberals made Bob Rae

their leader they wouldn't get their usual haul of seats in Ontario and they would probably suffer even more than they do already in B.C. Those two provinces will remember the mess the NDP made provincially. B.C. will be paying off that NDP debt for at least another twenty years.






Old politicians never die. The bastards never go away either.

 

[Reverend Blair]

That's why I think it's bizarre that his name keeps coming up. He was a Liberal before he joined the NDP and he's a Liberal again. That doesn't surprise me. What does surprise me is that he'd be mentioned for national leadership.