Polls
- Thread starter Reverend Blair
- Start date
I heard on radio Liberals have 11 point lead over conservatives due to people not liking Harper but 52% of people think Martin should step down ans 59% think Harper should.
Globe Mail
Ontario, BC and Maratimes is where the Liberals are ahead of Cons.
A Pollara poll gives the Liberals a commanding advantage - 11 points ahead of their arch-rivals, with staggering leads in battlegrounds like B.C., the Toronto area and Atlantic Canada. Pollara's chairman says the Canadian electorate wants to punish the Liberals and there's only one explanation for such a large lead.
n B.C. the Liberals held a 21-point lead, 44 to 23 per cent. Even the NDP was well ahead of the Tories at 28 per cent.
Read More here
Globe Mail
Ontario, BC and Maratimes is where the Liberals are ahead of Cons.
A Pollara poll gives the Liberals a commanding advantage - 11 points ahead of their arch-rivals, with staggering leads in battlegrounds like B.C., the Toronto area and Atlantic Canada. Pollara's chairman says the Canadian electorate wants to punish the Liberals and there's only one explanation for such a large lead.
n B.C. the Liberals held a 21-point lead, 44 to 23 per cent. Even the NDP was well ahead of the Tories at 28 per cent.
Read More here
Re: RE: Polls
WHAT!!!
The barbecue tactic didn't work for the Cons???
*snicker*
no1important said:
WHAT!!!
The barbecue tactic didn't work for the Cons???
*snicker*
No it did not. Harper burnt too many burgers...
Not much of a surprise, though. The surprise is Harper does not see the writing on the wall either. At this rate the Libs will get a majority and NDP (hopefully) or Bloc (more likely) could very well be the opposition.
It would be interesting though if the (neo)Cons would of elected Belinda as leader instead of Harper , would they be this bad in polls? They certainly would not be any worse.
Not much of a surprise, though. The surprise is Harper does not see the writing on the wall either. At this rate the Libs will get a majority and NDP (hopefully) or Bloc (more likely) could very well be the opposition.
It would be interesting though if the (neo)Cons would of elected Belinda as leader instead of Harper , would they be this bad in polls? They certainly would not be any worse.
Belinda has yet to "pay her dues".
Frankly,many people would not vote for her,as leader,simply because she's a woman and she comes from a lot of money.
I don't think she would have had time to gather round her the important "backroom" people.
Harper is NOT becoming a household name,despite his barbecue circuit this summer,and his chances for leading the country are becoming more and more dim.
Frankly,many people would not vote for her,as leader,simply because she's a woman and she comes from a lot of money.
I don't think she would have had time to gather round her the important "backroom" people.
Harper is NOT becoming a household name,despite his barbecue circuit this summer,and his chances for leading the country are becoming more and more dim.
Ipsos-Reid
18/08/2005
Liberal 36
Cons 28
NDP 17
Bloc 11
Green 6
SES Research poll - Liberals up; Harper image in free fall
Interesting article from a couple weeks ago as well:
SES Research national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows the Liberals with a 14 point lead over the Conservatives.
Martin leads Layton as best PM by 16 points and 39% of Canadians would describe Liberal government performance as average.
"The big Liberal gains were in Quebec where they increased their support from 21% to 34% while the Conservatives have dropped from 11% to 4%."
18/08/2005
Liberal 36
Cons 28
NDP 17
Bloc 11
Green 6
SES Research poll - Liberals up; Harper image in free fall
Interesting article from a couple weeks ago as well:
SES Research national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows the Liberals with a 14 point lead over the Conservatives.
Martin leads Layton as best PM by 16 points and 39% of Canadians would describe Liberal government performance as average.
"The big Liberal gains were in Quebec where they increased their support from 21% to 34% while the Conservatives have dropped from 11% to 4%."
Both. Or neither. Individual polls mean little or nothing, it's the overall trends that matter.
The Strategic Counsel poll is basically unchanged from a poll they did in August and quite close to one they did in June. Leger is showing Harper having gone down since their May poll while everybody else has made small gains.
The trend of Harper either dropping or remaining constant shows up in poll after poll. People don't like his message.
The Liberals also seem to be creeping up into majority numbers, but the deciding factor there is really Quebec. That has to be taken riding by riding because of the split between Liberals and the BQ. Right now my money is on a large minority or small majority by the Liberals.
Gomery is likely to only have an effect in Quebec though, so that could change.
Here, I think, is the latest poll. It doesn't really help much.
http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/index.php
http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/index.php
Yeah, it puts things about where they were a year ago. The Conservatives are up bit, but that's likely the Dingwall effect. That won't hold, especially in an election.
I'm not sure how accurate this one is, it seems like a pretty drastic shift and out of line with other polls, but a CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted by The Strategic Counsel has the Liberals at 38, the CPC at 25, the NDP at 15, and the BQ at 14.
Re: RE: Polls
I don't believe how these polling companies work... they get such high Liberal numbers in Ontario by polling within the 416 area code, which is heavily Liberal. It works the same way for BC, where they simply call Vancouver numbers, and not outlying areas. There is no way the Liberals have a higher % in BC then the Conservatives, considering that the suburbs (with more seats then Vancouver) mostly vote CPC, and always have. Frankly, I'm getting sick of all these polls, they all have their own quirks, biased towards the media outlet which initiates them (otherwise they would have no story).
Reverend Blair said:
I don't believe how these polling companies work... they get such high Liberal numbers in Ontario by polling within the 416 area code, which is heavily Liberal. It works the same way for BC, where they simply call Vancouver numbers, and not outlying areas. There is no way the Liberals have a higher % in BC then the Conservatives, considering that the suburbs (with more seats then Vancouver) mostly vote CPC, and always have. Frankly, I'm getting sick of all these polls, they all have their own quirks, biased towards the media outlet which initiates them (otherwise they would have no story).
Polls are very useful for seeing trends, Senathos. An individual poll really doesn't mean much though, and some just miss the mark. They are all biased depending on the pollster and who asked for it, but when taken as a group they do show which way the wind is blowing.
All the other polls have been showing everybody basically at the same place they were last spring though...going up and down within the margin of error. This one shows a pretty drastic shift. It could be a rogue poll or it could be the beginning of a trend...once we see four or five others, we'll have an idea.
All the other polls have been showing everybody basically at the same place they were last spring though...going up and down within the margin of error. This one shows a pretty drastic shift. It could be a rogue poll or it could be the beginning of a trend...once we see four or five others, we'll have an idea.