Polls

[#juan]

I think Rev,

that the scenario of the Liberals and the NDP forming a coalition that is at least permanent for this mandate would be the best for the country. The liberals could make one or two cabinet position s NDP MPs and we could forget about elections for at least four or five years. It might be a good combination. I like the idea of proportional voting, but until that comes about, this might be the next best thing.

 

[Reverend Blair]

It has always worked out well before. I don't think there will be cabinet positions involved in any case though.

I keep looking back to the original budget that the Liberals put forth. It was clearly tailored to please the Conservatives which makes me wonder if the Liberals will be willing to swing any kind of deal with the NDP if the Conservatives don't force them to.

 

[#juan]

THere is one other possibility.

I notice that the NDP are down a couple points and the Bloc are down a point, and the Conservatives are down a few points. By the time we get to this early election we could see a small Liberal majority. I would prefer the LIb/NDP coalition though.

 

[Reverend Blair]

I don't think there will be a Liberal majority. They simply don't have enough support in Quebec. Unless the BQ and PQ screw up royally, that's not going to change.

 

[no1important]

Nov 17, 2005

Libs- 36%
Cons- 27%
Ndp-16%
BQ-13%
Green- 6%

From here

Basically the same as the one on Nov 15.

 

[no1important]

Two new polls:

Ipso Reid:

Libs- 34%
Cons-30%
NDP-16%
Bloc-15%
Greens-5

Ekos poll:

Libs-39%
Cons-29%
Ndp-17%
Bloc-11%
Green-4%

From Here

 

[Canucklehead]

I would really be interested to see how the election would go if no opinion polls were allowed to be published and people wouldn't be able to gauge the strategic ?value? of their vote.

My guess would be a close race for Bloc/CPC or NDP/Lib coalition.

 

[Reverend Blair]

And the regional breakdowns still have the Liberals way ahead in Ontario with the NDP either tied with or leading the Conservatives in BC.

The latest seat prediction from democraticSPACE.com shows:
Lib...115
Con...93
NDP...38
BQ...62

A parliament like that would last about a week, but the trend is for the Liberals to go up slightly while the Conservatives drop.

 

[no1important]

If the NDP do win a lot of these tight races here in BC the Conservatives may only finish with about 84, 85 seats. I think Libs may pick up two here and their seats are pretty safe I believe except for Hedy Frey's.

 

[no1important]

Nov 26 poll From Here

Libs- 38.7%
Cons-29.4%
NDP-16.9%
Bloc-10.6%
Grn-3.9%

Seat Projections From Here

Libs-120
Cons-91
NDP-35
Bloc-62
Green- 0

 

[Reverend Blair]

Interesting numbers, No 1. The Conservative's lack of policy alternatives that Canadians can stomach seems to be taking a toll.

 

[no1important]

They are interesting as in last 2 polls libs have been around 39% and cons around 29. If past few elections are an indicator, the closer we get to voting day, the libs tend to go up.

Amazing with all the stink and calling the libs "organized crime" the cons still are determined to bring down government, especially since the polls show they will lose seats.

Gomery really has not hurt the Libs as much (or not at all) as Harper hoped. Pretty lame party if they can not capitalize on that scandal, but maybe most people who have common sense, know Martin was not the main guy behind it and the fact he was cleared.

Or they could be tired of Harpers whining?

I like the 35 seat projection for NDP, hopefully they get at least that and maybe a few more.

This will be Harpers last campaign as Conservative leader, I am sure.

 

[Reverend Blair]

I'm still betting closer to 30 than 35 for the NDP.

I think the organised crime spew is playing about as well as the "Martin supports kiddy porn" crap in the last election. It's hurting the Conservatives, not helping them.

 

[#juan]

Hopefully Rev, no1,

If the Libs end up with 135 and the NDP with thirty odd, they will make a deal and the country will be stable for a while.

 

[Jay]

Re: RE: Polls

I think the organised crime spew is playing about as well as the "Martin supports kiddy porn" crap in the last election. It's hurting the Conservatives, not helping them.

http://www.ndp.ca/page/1706



In his own words:
Justice Gomery on Unethical Liberal Practices

The report released by Justice John Gomery confirms that a culture of entitlement and cronyism runs deep into the Liberal Party of Canada. Justice Gomery frankly states that Liberals “were directly involved in illegal campaign financing” and “disregarded the relevant laws governing donations to political parties.”

He says the Liberal Party “cannot escape responsibility for the misconduct of its officers and representatives,” that there is “clear evidence of political involvement” and that there is “greed and venality” in the Liberal Party.

The Sponsorship Scandal highlights the “culture of entitlement” by well-connected Liberals who devised a scheme to take “kickbacks” as well as taxpayers money to fund the Liberal Party. This deep-seated culture punishes whistleblowers while it rewards well-connected Liberal friends with taxpayer dollars.

The Liberal Party can’t clean up a Liberal scandal. Justice Gomery refers to the “culture of entitlement” which permeates the Liberal Party of Canada.

 

[Reverend Blair]

There's nothing in there claiming that the Liberals are tied to organized crime, Jay.

 

[no1important]

The conservative lovers are grasping at straws. They know they will do even worse this time around and are desperate for votes.

They also know, even though they will not admit it, is Harper is "dead weight" and he is a lousey politician. He has no skill, no leadership and no vision.

You know, if Trudeau had been involved in a similar scandal, Mulroney (lousey PM but great bs'er) could of and would of been able to capitalize on "similar scandal". But not Harper.

I honestly believe the conservative membership really screwed up by picking Harper over Belinda, as she would of been a better leader, been better at capitalizing on Gomery and have the cons higher in the polls.

She was the breathe of fresh air that party needed. But now she is gone, too bad so sad. The cons are in a hole until they can find a descent replacement and not Klein or Harris either.

 

[Jay]

Re: RE: Polls

There's nothing in there claiming that the Liberals are tied to organized crime, Jay.

Your right. I misread the issue. I thought he said they were organized crime, not tied to it. My fault.

 

[Jay]

Re: RE: Polls

I honestly believe the conservative membership really screwed up by picking Harper over Belinda, as she would of been a better leader, been better at capitalizing on Gomery and have the cons higher in the polls.

She was the breathe of fresh air that party needed. But now she is gone, too bad so sad. The cons are in a hole until they can find a descent replacement and not Klein or Harris either.

I think hindsight is 20/20 on that. She crossed the floor. Obviously she wasn't a good choice for leader.

 

[no1important]

Well part of the reason was the way Harper and the boys treated her. That should say lots about that party.