In a rather comforting turn of events, it would appear that the Liberal Party of Canada has now led the national polls for seven consecutive months. In the latest compilation of polling data from ThreeHunredEight.com, the seat projections for the new make-up of a House of Commons are intriguing, and show that change could be in the cards for 2015.
If an election were held today, the popular vote would be as follows:
These numbers would translate into House of Commons representation as follows:
Now, of course, such a result would not guarantee that the Conservative Party would cease to be the Government of Canada. Since no party would have a majority of seats, it would be the right of the incumbent Government to meet the new House of Commons and attempt to secure its confidence -- which it could accomplish, if improbably, with the support of either the Liberals or the New Democrats.
Source: ThreeHundredEight.com - October 2013 federal polling averages
If an election were held today, the popular vote would be as follows:
- 35.2% for the Liberal Party of Canada
- 28.9% for the Conservative Party of Canada (Government)
- 23.7% for the New Democratic Party of Canada (Opposition)
- 5.9% for the Bloc Québécois
- 5.5% for the Green Party of Canada
These numbers would translate into House of Commons representation as follows:
- 130 seats for the Liberal Party of Canada
- 121 seats for the Conservative Party of Canada (Government)
- 70 seats for the New Democratic Party of Canada (Opposition)
- 15 seats for the Bloc Québécois
- 2 seats for the Green Party of Canada
Now, of course, such a result would not guarantee that the Conservative Party would cease to be the Government of Canada. Since no party would have a majority of seats, it would be the right of the incumbent Government to meet the new House of Commons and attempt to secure its confidence -- which it could accomplish, if improbably, with the support of either the Liberals or the New Democrats.
Source: ThreeHundredEight.com - October 2013 federal polling averages