Here we go with the non-coalition coalition that’s definitely not a coalition type coalition….The Liberals and New Democratic Party have been working together for more than a year — under the terms of a deal that could extend the life of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government into 2025.
Sooner or later — by the fall of that year at the latest — the two federal parties are going to have to campaign against each other….or not.
With decreasing daylight between their policies and platforms, playful observers occasionally speculate about what would happen if the parties were to strike a deal and join forces to defeat Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in the next election.
— Testing an out-there idea:
Léger was curious what would happen if the Liberals and NDP were to run one candidate between the two parties in every riding — an extremely hypothetical scenario. Pollsters asked people for their thoughts on a one-time alliance, not a full-fledged merger…France style ‘cuz that’s working out
— The results: Although a LPC-NDP alliance would likely to defeat the Conservatives, it would not crush the right-of-center party.
Léger’s poll shows that, under current conditions, the Conservatives lead in voting intentions with 36 percent of support nationwide, six points ahead of the Liberals at 30 percent. The New Democrats hover near 19 percent, which is their usual level of support.
The LPC-NDP alliance would collect 41 percent of support across the country, two points ahead of the Conservatives, who would garner 39 percent.
— Election math: As separate parties the Liberals and NDP would/could win the support of nearly half the electorate (49 percent, a share similar to the 2021 election). Together, they’d only pick up 41 percent.
— The breakdown: Overall, 89 percent of Liberal voters would back an LPC-NDP alliance; only 75 percent of NDP voters would do the same. The Conservative block would remain intact with 96 percent retention.
— The end result: With 41 percent of the vote and favorable regional numbers (see below), this hypothetical alliance would likely beat the Conservatives in a general election.
Using Léger’s numbers, the 338Canada model estimates it would win around 175 seats against about 130 seats for the Conservatives. It would be a win for the alliance, but barely above the majority threshold in the seat count.
So with this merger they’re predicting:
Liberal/NDP. 175
Conservatives 130
Greens. 2
Bloc.
36
343 seats
I sincerely hope this backfires for the NDP/Liberals, much like America is using Canada as a cautionary tale, Canada is able to use France as a cautionary tale for this type of union…
in-cyprus.philenews.com
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It’s possible. But Canadian voters appear to be motivated by the desire for a change in leadership: 84 per cent think it is time for a change of government, according to one recent Abacus Data poll, even if 29 per cent are not enamored with the alternatives. It would be a tough sell for any of the current Liberal cabinet or the NDP leader to claim they represent change.
