Could 'Super El Nino' come storming into Canada this summer?
50/50 chance that Canada could experience strong El Nino events this summer, into fall: Report
Author of the article:Brian Towie
Published Mar 24, 2026 • 1 minute read
Conditions brought on by El Nino have been known to cause drought and wildfires.
Conditions brought on by El Nino have been known to cause drought and wildfires. Photo by Getty Images
Canadians could see a “super El Nino” in 2026, climate scientists say.
Kent Moore, a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Toronto, told CTV that there’s a 50% chance Canada could experience strong El Nino events later on this summer and into the fall.
Super El Nino, El Nino and La Nina
An El Nino is identified by sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Those waters are warmer during an El Nino event and colder during a La Nina year.
A “super El Nino” happens when ocean temperatures reach 2 C or greater than average. A “super El Nino” would mean higher temperatures and a milder winter for Canada, experts say.
But that comes at a cost. David Phillips, a climatologist from Environment and Climate Change Canada, told CTV that such conditions could create less ice on the Great Lakes, which could mean more lake-effect storms.
The parts of the country that experience warmer winters would tend to see the most intense weather in such a case. Historically, El Nino means milder than normal temperatures for Western and Central Canada, according to Canada.ca.
Global impact
El Nino has a much more severe impact on other parts of the planet. It can impact food supplies, energy systems and infrastructure all over the world.
The 2015-16 El Nino event affected food security for more than 60 million people. Tropical regions such as Southeast Asia, Australia and central Africa experience drier conditions, which can mean drought and wildfires.
The Southeastern United States and parts of Mexico, however, have historically seen wetter conditions. During La Nina, the reverse is true.
El Niño
canada.ca
Global temperatures and rain patterns are affected by a climate phenomenon known as El Niño/La Niña.
bbc.com
After being subjected to almost a year and a half of La Niña weather, Canadians could end up facing the possibility of a completely different weather system – a “super” El Niño – according to climate scientists.
ctvnews.ca
A weather expert said there is a 50% chance that Canada could see 'super El Nino' events later this year. Read more.
torontosun.com
