There wont be a deal until Israel is out of Gaza according to unfiltered news from non US or Israel outlets.
At this point, there just won’t be a deal. Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, & Trump blockades the blockade and then declares that the Strait is open. Iran declares that without reparations for this war, there will be no end and no peace, and Trump trumps their reparations demand with his own reparations demand…including for entities not directly affiliated with Iran, insisting that he will bring this up at any future negotiation as one of America’s red lines?
Tomorrow is Tuesday so anything can happen, but…this reparations claim by Trump is his newest toy to play with so he probably won’t get bored with it for a while…
Does this sound like they’re close to a peace arrangement of some type? Does it sound like they’re close to anything that they will agree upon? Is Israel involved in the decision-making process the negotiations or lack there of between
America Trump and
Iran the IRGC? Are the IRGC’s proxies at the table either? Are America and Iran, or representatives of Trump and the IRGC even at the same table? Involved in the same conversations even?
Iran is Trumps baby at this point in a “you broke it so you bought it” sorta thing, & Irans proxies like America’s proxy Israel are their own conflicts at this point, with America’s hands being full already. The Genie is out’a the bottle, and I assumed that Israel would be gone before the Sunni/Shiite alliances would boil up militarily (currently as “defence agreements”) so I’m wrong on that front.
Without nuking Iran, Trump isn’t going to prevent Iran from doing whatever it wants on the nuclear front, so Saudi Arabia is going to end up with nukes also from somebody (and the Saudi’s pockets are deep), & thus the half assed rushed agreement that was beyond rushed to have America be the nuclear benefactor for Saudi Arabia before somebody else stepped into that role. The whole thing is just a patchwork of reaction after reaction. I can picture Pakistan being Saudi Arabia’s nuclear benefactor in the next few years to come.
Trump has his hands full with Iran and American domestic politics and his own aspirations for the Western hemisphere. Lebanon and Israel together will have to sort out the Hezbollah situation without having Lebanon fall into another Civil War like it did previously due to the PLO. Saudi Arabia and Egypt (different ends of the Red Sea) with the actual Yemen Gov’t will have to sort out the Houthis, and that leaves Jared Kushner and Greta Thunberg to sort out Hamas (& Friends) along with Trumps
retirement plan Bored of Peace. That’s from the outside looking in at this dogs breakfast.
On that note, Sunni’s are what? 85%+ of Muslims and Twelver Shiites are 10%+ so Iran as the rally caller for the entire Muslim religion is a hard one for much of the Middle East to swallow in all honesty, again from the outside looking in. Shiites (like Jews) are in the minority though with a different flavour than the Sunni’s, they’re on team Allah.
Now this is coming from the non-religious guy, but the “defence agreement” between these three bigger Sunni predominant sovereign nations, with a likely possible fourth being Egypt and a fifth being Qatar and the sixth being Kuwait before others climb on board…yes they’ll be equally against the outsiders in the neighbourhood be they Shiites or Jews, so it will continue to be interesting. It’s gonna come down to “who’s first” and who can play well comparatively with the Sunni alliance.
…and yes, the Palestinians are…predominantly Sunni. I’m sure that hasn’t escaped Israeli notice, just to throw you a bone there.
I doubt there will be a “Palestine” though because if there was going to be one, it would’ve already happened before Jordan outright annexed what they termed the West Bank, etc…
en.wikipedia.org
Which circles us back to the “Palestinians.”
Jordan doesn’t want any more of them. They’ve got their share and they’ve learned their lesson, and the same with Egypt. The PLO was instrumental in the cause of the Lebanon Civil War, and Syria just changed governments and directions and punted Hezbollah sideways over into Lebanon. Kuwait evicted about 20% of their population (the Palestinian 1/5th) after the Iraq war, so beyond lip service there is not a lot of love lost there.
Turkey is still playing footsie with Hamas (& friends) for street cred, but in a short order, they won’t have to anymore…& they (Turkey) can be buddy-buddy with the big dog Sunni actual nations in their pact without opening their borders to destabilizing entities like…Palestinians. It will be interesting to watch this play out in the next couple years.
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