You could be right, though I'd say Option #2 is just a temporary stopgap to Option #1, citing the USSR and Yugoslavia as examples.
And I think the reason is that human beings are very, very good at crisis management, and crap at long-term planning. And very, very good at pissing and moaning about the here-and-now, and crap at understanding the more distant, abstract benefits of large systems. In other words, they're good at seeing that New Brunswick is getting a bigger slice of the pie, and not so good at understanding that the pie, and therefore all its pieces, would be much smaller if each province was a separate country. And there are always, always, always people ready, willing, and able to stoke divisions, parochialism, and bigotry for their own benefit.
It's entirely possible that we're moving toward a new model: looser confederations, with smaller central governments doing less, and local government doing more and taking more, like the EU. Maybe Brexit is the wave of the future. Maybe the U.S. and Canada will become federations of provinces, which ironically is what they were 100 years back.
There are upsides and downsides to both (all) models. I could certainly see a North American Union. There's certainly less cultural reason for a hard border between Canada and the U.S. than just about any other two countries in the world.
But here's the thing. Take a look at Blackshirt and his slobbering adoration of BoreJo over in England. Whether Blackshirt ends up as a citizen of the United States of Europe, or as a subject of the United Kingdom of My Street and the Next Street Over, whatever Fearless Leader takes him to that promised land ain't in it for Blackshirt. He's in it for himself.
"Life IS pain, Princess. Anybody who says different is selling something."
-- Westley, The Princess Bride
"Always cut the cards."
-- Lazarus Long, Time Enough for Love