Crime, not necessarly going down, but is it going up?

[Bar Sinister]

Sad to say it but anecdotal evidence generally beats statistics. Most people are truthful, albeit sometimes the truth is distorted but statistics are often selected.

Really? I suspect that comment is purely anecdotal.

Another example?

Global Warming statistics.

By now people on the coast lines should be up to their hips in water..... hasn't happened yet.

That comment would seem to indicate that you don't understand global warming either. BTW isn't there a vast amount of anecdotal evidence supporting global warming?

Pranks can be a crime, but what often matters is cost. You just have to clean up the garbage here and it costs nothing but time. Tagging does cost money as the graffiti has to be removed. Bad, but its not theft.

I have to lock my bike everywhere now, I didn't used to 35 years ago. Non-violent crime is up.
Do women feel safe at night? No I'd say. Violent crime is up.

I often leave the house and don't bother to close the garage door. Never been robbed. It would seem my anecdote would indicate crime is going down.

 

[JLM]

Really? I suspect that comment is purely anecdotal.



That comment would seem to indicate that you don't understand global warming either. BTW isn't there a vast amount of anecdotal evidence supporting global warming?



I often leave the house and don't bother to close the garage door. Never been robbed. It would seem my anecdote would indicate crime is going down.

A lot of statistics are just an accumulation of anecdotes. Pollster phones me I give him/her an answer eg. "is crime increasing or decreasing in your neighbourhood?" - If I haven't been robbed in the last two years I might say down, if I have I'm liable to say up. The pollster doesn't hear the anecdote - just the conclusion. That's why statistics are so suspect.

 

[petros]

Try training a dog by locking it in a cage everytime it **** on the rug. That dog won't **** in his own cage but the second you set it free it will **** on the rug. Why?

A lot of statistics are just an accumulation of anecdotes. Pollster phones me I give him/her an answer eg. "is crime increasing or decreasing in your neighbourhood?" - If I haven't been robbed in the last two years I might say down, if I have I'm liable to say up. The pollster doesn't hear the anecdote - just the conclusion. That's why statistics are so suspect.

They have arrest records to go by not opinions.

 

[JLM]

Try training a dog by locking it in a cage everytime it **** on the rug. That dog won't **** in his own cage but the second you set it free it will **** on the rug. Why?

They have arrest records to go by not opinions.

But what do arrest records prove? Arrested people aren't always guilty of something. Maybe the number of cops on duty has changed. Maybe the staff sergearnt decided he was going to crack down on one specific crime. Maybe some new technology was in place to make detection easier.

 

[Ron in Regina]

People have more "stuff" now...and most of it is built like crap (planned redundancy).

In days gone by, you had your stuff, and other people had their stuff. That stuff (from
radios to shovels, etc...) might last a generation or two (or three) in the family. You
didn't "have to" replace a lot of your stuff unless you wanted to upgrade, etc...

Things still got stolen, and you'd have to replace it then....but the guy stealing your
stuff most likely didn't have whatever it was that was stolen from you. It would happen
on occasion.

Now everyone is replacing much of their stuff more often as it's just not designed to
last very long, and so would the thieves be replacing their stuff with yours also...

Computers are fairly new things. Who here is still using the very first computer they
ever purchased? Who here is using the TV that their parents purchased new when
they where still young? Maybe....when we're replacing our own stuff more often, then
replacing it again when stolen is much more noticeable? Just a theory....

On a different tangent, my Father never had a vehicle stolen or broken into. Same
with my grandfather. I've have almost every vehicle I've every owned (except the
current one, so far) broken into, and my Sister has have many of her vehicles
stolen (some a few times each, a Trans-Am a few times, a Jeep three times, etc...),
and a couple of her vehicles broken into every year. Go figure.

 

[petros]

But what do arrest records prove? Arrested people aren't always guilty of something. Maybe the number of cops on duty has changed. Maybe the staff sergearnt decided he was going to crack down on one specific crime. Maybe some new technology was in place to make detection easier.

Arrests are arrests. Convictions are convictions. Those numbers are not opinions.

People have more "stuff" now...and most of it is built like crap (planned redundancy).

In days gone by, you had your stuff, and other people had their stuff. That stuff (from
radios to shovels, etc...) might last a generation or two (or three) in the family. You
didn't "have to" replace a lot of your stuff unless you wanted to upgrade, etc...

Things still got stolen, and you'd have to replace it then....but the guy stealing your
stuff most likely didn't have whatever it was that was stolen from you. It would happen
on occasion.

Now everyone is replacing much of their stuff more often as it's just not designed to
last very long, and so would the thieves be replacing their stuff with yours also...

Computers are fairly new things. Who here is still using the very first computer they
ever purchased? Who here is using the TV that their parents purchased new when
they where still young? Maybe....when we're replacing our own stuff more often, then
replacing it again when stolen is much more noticeable? Just a theory....

On a different tangent, my Father never had a vehicle stolen or broken into. Same
with my grandfather. I've have almost every vehicle I've every owned (except the
current one, so far) broken into, and my Sister has have many of her vehicles
stolen (some a few times each, a Trans-Am a few times, a Jeep three times, etc...),
and a couple of her vehicles broken into every year. Go figure.

The biggest theives and criminals aren't walking the streets on foot. They sit in the back of limos drinking Chivas and laughing their heads off at all the idiots they see through the tinted glass.

 

[TenPenny]

On a different tangent, my Father never had a vehicle stolen or broken into. Same
with my grandfather. I've have almost every vehicle I've every owned (except the
current one, so far) broken into, and my Sister has have many of her vehicles
stolen (some a few times each, a Trans-Am a few times, a Jeep three times, etc...),
and a couple of her vehicles broken into every year. Go figure.

Neither my wife, nor I, have had a vehicle broken into. And my current car, due to a broken wire (I assume), the tailgate does not lock. When the weather warms up, I'll get it fixed. I have, on occasion, left the car outside, unlocked, with my laptop in the back. And (knock on wood), it has never been broken into.

The next door neighbor's house was broken into last summer. But, it turns out, it was by friends of friends of the kids, who knew that everyone was out, and they had been in the house before. (Teenagers with drug habits are fun). Considering that in 1971, we had two bicycles stolen from our yard in Ontario, I'd say that crime has neither increased or decreased. That's my anecdotal evidence.

 

[JLM]

Neither my wife, nor I, have had a vehicle broken into. And my current car, due to a broken wire (I assume), the tailgate does not lock. When the weather warms up, I'll get it fixed. I have, on occasion, left the car outside, unlocked, with my laptop in the back. And (knock on wood), it has never been broken into.

The next door neighbor's house was broken into last summer. But, it turns out, it was by friends of friends of the kids, who knew that everyone was out, and they had been in the house before. (Teenagers with drug habits are fun). Considering that in 1971, we had two bicycles stolen from our yard in Ontario, I'd say that crime has neither increased or decreased. That's my anecdotal evidence.

And probably as valid as anything else.

 

[Tonington]

And that's the very reason statistics are orders of magnitude less reliable than anecdotes- with anecdotes what you don't trust you disqualify.

Introducing your own bias doesn't make something more reliable, it works in the opposite fashion actually.

 

[Trotz]

Six years is fine,

but instead of a comfortable vacation in a low security prison I would send them up to a penal colony somewhere in the North West Territories; six years of frozen hell would be more than enough to convince the inmates not to recommit.

 

[Tonington]

Six years is fine,

but instead of a comfortable vacation in a low security prison I would send them up to a penal colony somewhere in the North West Territories; six years of frozen hell would be more than enough to convince the inmates not to recommit.

They probably wouldn't even need six years. One summer with all the black flies and mosquitoes swarming, and the possibility of repeating that...I'd consider big lifestyle changes!

 

[petros]

Six years is fine,

but instead of a comfortable vacation in a low security prison I would send them up to a penal colony somewhere in the North West Territories; six years of frozen hell would be more than enough to convince the inmates not to recommit.

If NWT is hell then I have nothing to fear after death because NWT is gorgeous year round.

 

[Tonington]

If NWT is hell then I have nothing to fear after death because NWT is gorgeous year round.

Yes, well some people like cozy bedrooms the size of prison cells. The difference between you and the convicted is choice.

 

[petros]

Yes, well some people like cozy bedrooms the size of prison cells. The difference between you and the convicted is choice.

So then the NWT really is hell or is prison hell?

 

[Trotz]

So then the NWT really is hell or is prison hell?

Some people enjoy prison,
all the gay sex and dormitory food you could ever want...

 

[JLM]

Introducing your own bias doesn't make something more reliable, it works in the opposite fashion actually.

That would depend on the person, I consider myself of sufficient intelligence to properly weigh the pros and cons and in most cases draw the correct conclusion or where that's not possible, to recognize that I'm not able to come to a conclusion.

 

[Tonington]

So then the NWT really is hell or is prison hell?

I thought I was clear enough...the answer is obviously subjective.

That would depend on the person, I consider myself of sufficient intelligence to properly weigh the pros and cons and in most cases draw the correct conclusion or where that's not possible, to recognize that I'm not able to come to a conclusion.

The smartest person still has bias. Sufficiently intelligent doesn't matter. You, like most humans, have your own view on how the world works, is arranged, how systems function, etc. etc... We all have biases, that's why randomization exists in proper surveys, experiments, and statistical analysis. You will subconsciously elevate in importance, or weight if you want, anecdotes you hear which conform to your world view.

 

[petros]

I thought I was clear enough...the answer is obviously subjective.

No not clear at all because It wasn't a choice between prison or NWT it was not fearing going to hell if the NWT were hell.

Clear now?

 

[Ron in Regina]

Yes, well some people like cozy bedrooms the size of prison cells. The difference between you and the convicted is choice.

Usually five nights a week, I spend the night in a bedroom (in a bunkhouse, with a roommate)
the size of a prison cell...or smaller. If one guy goes for Indian food (or Mexican, whatever...) on
a Sunday, we all know 'till sometime on Tuesday.

 

[Trotz]

What happens in the bunk stays in the bunk *Nods to ron*