Political polls are a mugs game. They are interesting, but they are just a snapshot in time & potentially very biased in their outcome, depending on the questions, asked, etc…
The Conservatives easily captured the popular vote in both the 2021 and 2019 federal elections, but fell well short of the Liberals in seat count.
The phenomenon is due entirely to the quirks of first past the post — an electoral system that the Trudeau government itself once promised to abolish. A disproportionate share of the Liberal caucus is MPs who were elected in ridings with close three-way ties — allowing them to enter the House of Commons with vote shares of as little as 31 per cent
. Even though thousands more Canadians voted Conservative, most of that support was in deep blue ridings that would have gone Conservative anyway.
It is what it is & it’s the system that we have.
Conservatives are starting to gain enough ground that an electoral win – even a majority – seems within reach
No particular policy or occurrence seems to be pushing voters into the Conservative camp. Last week’s report absolving the Trudeau government for their invocation of the Emergencies Act didn’t seem to alter anyone’s pre-existing opinion of the measure.
Similarly, government approval ratings have proved remarkably immune to a steady trickle of recent Liberal scandals (for eight years)
, such as revelations that Trade Minister Mary Ng handed $20,000 in “media training” contracts to a close friend.
Rather, the Liberal star seems to be fading for the age-old reason of economic hardship: Canadians are increasingly hard up for cash, and they’re blaming the party in power.