Collapse of the Russian Federation

pgs

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I think thugocracy is the default position in that neck of the woods .
 

Blackleaf

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What would Russia be like today had Trotsky not had his head caved in by an icepick in 1940?
 

Ron in Regina

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What would Russia be like today had Trotsky not had his head caved in by an icepick in 1940?
‘Bout the same. Trotsky was already in exile again…. and if they didn’t get in with an ice pick in 1940, they would’ve got him a few months after that, or a few months after that, or a few months after that….
 

The_Foxer

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I dont' think we're seeing a 'collapse'. But - we could be seeing a period of restructure - in the sense that they may be rethinking or retooling how they do things

But overall i wouldn't expect change. Russians LIKE being part of a big country. There's an old saying that russians will have food without empire or empire without food but they won't go without both. They will suffer a lot for the idea of a great nation.

But we could see differences in structure emerge, i would THINK they're going to be reconsidering their rather horrible military model of conscription rather than a professional standing army and their idea that "quantity has a quality all it's own", they may focus for a time on economic growth rather than military dominance, and they may try to move towards more power in a committee rather than a single figure.

We'll see. But i don't think we'll see any kind of collapse.
 

petros

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I dont' think we're seeing a 'collapse'. But - we could be seeing a period of restructure - in the sense that they may be rethinking or retooling how they do things

But overall i wouldn't expect change. Russians LIKE being part of a big country. There's an old saying that russians will have food without empire or empire without food but they won't go without both. They will suffer a lot for the idea of a great nation.

But we could see differences in structure emerge, i would THINK they're going to be reconsidering their rather horrible military model of conscription rather than a professional standing army and their idea that "quantity has a quality all it's own", they may focus for a time on economic growth rather than military dominance, and they may try to move towards more power in a committee rather than a single figure.

We'll see. But i don't think we'll see any kind of collapse.
Just like Ukrainians, dozens of smaller ethnic groups were forced into economic and language ties. Descent is growing rapidly in Asia.

Kazakhs and the other "Stans" are breaking ties with Moscow. The small ethnic groups will drop out shortly.
 
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The_Foxer

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Just like Ukrainians, dozens of smaller ethnic groups were forced into economic and language ties. Descent is growing rapidly in Asia.

Kazakhs and the other "Stans" are breaking ties with Moscow. The small ethnic groups will drop out shortly.
Not impossible, that's for sure. But - I don't think a collapse is likely. You may see a little bit of chipping at the edges but not much, and i think actual breakaways will be few and far between.

Having said that, if they're going to do it now's probably the time.
 

Taxslave2

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I dont' think we're seeing a 'collapse'. But - we could be seeing a period of restructure - in the sense that they may be rethinking or retooling how they do things

But overall i wouldn't expect change. Russians LIKE being part of a big country. There's an old saying that russians will have food without empire or empire without food but they won't go without both. They will suffer a lot for the idea of a great nation.

But we could see differences in structure emerge, i would THINK they're going to be reconsidering their rather horrible military model of conscription rather than a professional standing army and their idea that "quantity has a quality all it's own", they may focus for a time on economic growth rather than military dominance, and they may try to move towards more power in a committee rather than a single figure.

We'll see. But i don't think we'll see any kind of collapse.
Russians may like it this way, but the various small serfdoms under the Russian paw may not feel the same way.
 

The_Foxer

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Russians may like it this way, but the various small serfdoms under the Russian paw may not feel the same way.
It's hard to say. I see very little evidence of widespread unrest in that respect. And even with ukraine a significant part of the population wanted to maintain ties with russia. Still - who knows what lurks in the hearts of men. We'll see, it could be that you're right and the dissatisfaction with 'empire' is growing and may come to a head.
 

petros

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Not impossible, that's for sure. But - I don't think a collapse is likely. You may see a little bit of chipping at the edges but not much, and i think actual breakaways will be few and far between.

Having said that, if they're going to do it now's probably the time.
Putin has been leasing massive tracts of Siberian land to China and Chinese inventment into Siberia is on the "Wow" scale. Do you think China will leave when leases end? If China takes Siberia its over for Russia.
 

The_Foxer

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Putin has been leasing massive tracts of Siberian land to China and Chinese inventment into Siberia is on the "Wow" scale. Do you think China will leave when leases end? If China takes Siberia its over for Russia.
It's one of those things that's a little hard to say of course. We're still 40 years away from finding out. the obvious path for the chinese is to fill the area and surrouding areas with their population as much as possible and then when the time comes have them vote to 'seceed' and have china annex them, much like what happened with the Crimea. Which is of course exaclty what russia would do and why they're scared of it.

But - It will depend on the situation at the time. If it were right now - russia is badly weakened, economically devistated, and would be hard pressed to put up a real fight with the chinese. But will that be the case 40 years from now?

As it is russia's population is currently shrinking so we will have to see how things go, but i'd be more inclined to think the chinese would play an even longer game, take advantage of russia's economic weakness to gain further controls and inroads into their economy and be the iron hand in the velvet glove that helps keep them afloat while gaining more and more control, until it's too late for them.

Given a choice, China tends to buy their conquests rather than invade them.
 

The_Foxer

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I dont think it will be 40 years down the road. More like 10 or even 5. Its been a slow quest for China for 30 years already.
Well the lease was in 2015 for like 45 years wasn't it? (i may be remembering that wrong). So they will probably want to take a while to get their people well established there and there's no need to 'steal' what they already have posession of legally at the moment i would think? Who can say with the chinese tho, they play a pretty good game of chess
 

petros

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Why on Earth would they leave? They wont leave.

It goes back further than 2012 when Putin declared opening the Far East. There's plenty of Soviet/Maoist deals going back 75 years with Chinese investment and manpower in Siberia.