Canada's Economy Takes A Big Hit In New OECD Forecast

mentalfloss

Prickly Curmudgeon Smiter
Jun 28, 2010
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Oilsands pain spreads all the way to Canada’s far-flung eastern shores | Financial Post

SYDNEY, Nova Scotia — Cory Troke joined the exodus west two years ago, leaving scenic but job-scarce Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, after being laid off as a machinist.

Troke, 37, headed to the Alberta oilsands, apprenticing as a pipefitter and finding 19 months of steady work, flying in for two weeks, returning home for one.

By October Troke was out of work again, and he was not alone. A downturn driven by tumbling crude prices is causing turmoil in an island economy that has grown dependent on workers commuting more than 3,000 kilometres west.

I personally know 40 to 50 guys that have been laid off since October

“I personally know 40 to 50 guys that have been laid off since October,” says Troke.

Cape Breton is another example how the 60% slide in oil prices since last June has rippled far and wide, affecting property markets in Alberta and North Dakota, helicopter sales in Houston, the Canadian dollar and national interest rates.

Once an industrial powerhouse fueled by now-closed coal mines and steel mills, the island has turned into an exporter of labour. Many young workers head to Fort McMurray in northern Alberta, lured by big paychecks awaiting at oilsands projects clustered around the city.

“If we didn’t have the oilsands, the McMurray factor as we sometimes call it, we would be in economic chaos,” said Cecil Clarke, mayor of the Cape Breton Regional Municipality.

Clarke, who has a brother working in Fort McMurray, says there is no precise data on the number of Cape Breton residents working in Western Canada, but pegs it at around 10,000. Other think it is closer to 5,000.

Still, in a region where the population has shrunk to around about 136,000, the distant oilsands have become an important contributor to the local economy.

ONE INDUSTRY TOWN

“We used to be a one industry town,” said Doug Lionais, a business professor at Cape Breton University, speaking of the region’s steel-making past. “We’re beginning to be a single industry town again. Only this time the industry is in Alberta.”

While forestry and fishing also provide jobs, unemployment in the region is chronic, with 14.6% of the labour force looking for work in December compared with Canada’s national unemployment rate of less than 7%.

In contrast, Alberta has been a magnet for workers. Its population has grown nearly 9% in three years to October 2014 compared with a 3.5% national rate.

“There’s nothing on my union board. Nothing with flights and camp. Nothing I’m really qualified for,” said John Gnatiuk, a Sydney River, Nova Scotia, truck driver who has spent the past five years as a fly-in, fly-out worker in western oilfields.

He said he was not expecting any new opportunities to come up there for at least six months.

Layoffs among oil sands producers have included Suncor Energy Inc, the largest oil sands operator, which said last month it would cut 1,000 jobs; Canadian unit of Saipem SpA which laid off about 1,000, and Royal Dutch Shell Plc , which cut 300 jobs.

There’s nothing on my union board. Nothing with flights and camp. Nothing I’m really qualified for

Nearly every operator in the region has cut spending, limiting work for the northern Alberta contractors that once needed to reach east for workers.

That spells trouble for Cape Breton, where oil sands workers often buy the big-ticket items like snowmobiles, boats and new houses, though the area has yet to feel the brunt of the oil downturn.

“If I were to ask the agents in this office, some of them would say up to 75% of their business is based on oil,” said Valarie Sampson, a real estate agent in the Cape Breton city of Sydney.

Sampson says that though sales are slowing, she does not expect to see the full effect of the oil downturn until the spring, when sales are usually the busiest.

The largest airport in Cape Breton saw passenger numbers fall by 1.9% in January and then 4.8% in February, a drop airport officials are attributing in part to oil worker related traffic.

Helen MacInnis, the airport’s chief executive, said much of that decline followed a decision by the charter service Canadian North to halve the number of flights between Sydney and Fort McMurray.

Ron MacDonald, general manager of Cape Breton-based dealership MacDonald Auto Group, said sales of the big, expensive pick-up trucks favored by oil sands workers have recently slowed down.

“They’re not sure about their jobs right now,” he said.

© Thomson Reuters 2015

Oilsands pain spreads all the way to Canada’s far-flung eastern shores | Financial Post
 

Hoid

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 15, 2017
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I would disagree that Canada is hurt by lower oil prices. The position of our dollar in relation to the american dollar is much better for manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing, real estate, and on and on. The so called petro dollar was killing us.

Ontario drives the economy and the lower dollar makes ontario work
 

Murphy

Executive Branch Member
Apr 12, 2013
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Ontario
Ontario hasn't driven anything since McGuinty, and later, Wynne, have had control.

If you are going to say stupid sh!t like that, back it up.
 

captain morgan

Hall of Fame Member
Mar 28, 2009
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A Mouse Once Bit My Sister
Ontario hasn't driven anything since McGuinty, and later, Wynne, have had control.

If you are going to say stupid sh!t like that, back it up.

I hate to get all nit-picky here, but hoid does have you on a technicality.... Wynne and the province have been masterful in driving business away from Ontario for the duration of her mandate
 

Murphy

Executive Branch Member
Apr 12, 2013
8,181
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Ontario
I hate to get all nit-picky here, but hoid does have you on a technicality.... Wynne and the province have been masterful in driving business away from Ontario for the duration of her mandate

I think that's what I said.

"Ontario hasn't driven anything since McGuinty, and later, Wynne, have had control."

For years, the province has been bleeding. We are in receipt of transfer payments. Ontario's economic engine is in desperate need of rebuilding.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equalization_payments_in_Canada
 

Hoid

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 15, 2017
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where else on earth can you get an argument that a high Canadian dollar hurts Canadian manufacturing?


When you need stupid look for the climate change deniers.
 

JamesBondo

House Member
Mar 3, 2012
4,158
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where else on earth can you get an argument that a high Canadian dollar hurts Canadian manufacturing?


When you need stupid look for the climate change deniers.

coal exporters are paid in US dollars and their expenses are paid in Canadian dollars.

You figure it out.
 

Hoid

Hall of Fame Member
Oct 15, 2017
20,408
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not sure what yu want me to figure out.

is it that a high canadian dollar is good for the canadian economy?
 

White_Unifier

Senate Member
Feb 21, 2017
7,300
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How come the manufacturing sector hasn't sprung into action with the lower CAD?

Surprising that the OECD doesn't mention a reversal in Dutch Disease here.

A factory doesn't just spring up overnight. Add to that the uncertainty of NAFTA.

What Canada should do is unilaterally drop tariffs.